The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET.
17.5Implied Total27.5
3232Points All./Gm22.117
63.619Opp. Plays/Gm59.46
49.9%31Opp. Rush %39.6%13
50.1%2Opp. Pass %60.4%20
  • The Dolphins have lost 10 consecutive road games, one shy of their franchise record set over the 2006-2008 seasons.
  • Opponents have scored on 50.6% of their possessions versus the Dolphins, the second-highest rate in the league behind the Falcons (53.8%).
  • Miami has scored a touchdown on 8-of-31 (25.8%) drives the past three weeks (15th) after scoring a touchdown on 4-of-54 (7.4%) drives through six weeks (32nd).
  • The Colts five-point point differential is tied for the lowest for all teams with a winning record with the Panthers.
  • The Colts rank 25th in rushing yardage per game at home (87.2 yards) as opposed to second in rushing yards per game on the road (172.2 yards).
  • Miami is allowing 170.0 rushing yards per game on the road, the most in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Marlon Mack: Mack hasn’t popped at home yet this season, but this is just his second matchup all season against a team that is in the bottom-10 in expected points added via their run defense. The first was against the Chiefs, when he rushed for 132 yards and had 148 total yards, Miami is 28th in rushing points allowed per game (17.9) to backs.
  • Zach Pascal: Pascal has played 92% and 94% of the snaps the past two weeks. He’s turned in two WR1 scoring weeks over the past three weeks and set up to lead this passing game once again with T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell out. Miami has allowed a league-high seven WR1 scoring weeks on the season. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • DeVante Parker: Parker has had five consecutive weeks at WR32 or higher. There’s carryover with a touchdown in four of his past five games, but Parker also has at least 55 receiving yards in six of his eight games played. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick took back over the past three weeks, Parker has had 22.9% of the team targets while the loss of Preston Williams frees up another 22.8% of the targets over that span to be spread around. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Kalen Ballage: With the suspension of Mark Walton following the trade of Kenyan Drake, Ballage is now the lead back for the Dolphins by default. Ballage has carried 35 times for 70 yards this season. The potential for forced usage is enough to explore Ballage as a FLEX option, but the Miami backfield has produced just two RB2 or better scoring weeks so far this season (both by Drake). The Colts are sixth in rushing points allowed per game (9.9), but 23rd in receiving points allowed per game (11.5) to backfields.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick has had two QB1 scoring weeks in three games since returning to the starting role and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in each of the past two games. With six teams on bye, he’s a deeper option as a streamer in 14-team leagues or more while he’s an option in 2QB formats, but the highest a quarterback has finished against the Colts over their past five games is QB11 and that was Patrick Mahomes.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Colts QB: Jacoby Brissett hasn’t been ruled out yet with a knee injury. If he plays, then he vaults up to fringe-QB1 status while Brian Hoyer hangs onto to streaming status if he’s the starter. With Hoyer throwing three touchdown passes filling in last week, Colts passers have now thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games this season. Even after showing up last week, the Dolphins still rank dead last in touchdown rate allowed to opposing passers (7.8%).
  • Colts TES: You know the drill by now. If these were one player, they’d be a weekly TE1 option. Instead, we have to hope one of Jack Doyle or Eric Ebron finds the end zone. Doyle has had more than 22 yards in two games while Ebron has had more than three catches just once. The Dolphins are 27th in yards per target allowed (8.9 yards) to opposing tight ends. 
  • Chester Rogers: Rogers gets another bump this week with the Colts also losing Campbell last week since Campbell ran 24 pass routes compared to 27 for Rogers. Rogers has run 86% of his routes from the slot, where the Dolphins are 22nd to opposing wideouts and just had their hands full with Jamison Crowder (8-83-1) a week ago.
  • Mike Gesicki: Gesicki is coming off a career-best six catches for 95 yards last week. He has seen his usage rise over the past month, averaging 27.8 routes per game over the past four weeks with 20 targets in those games after just 11 targets through his first four games. With the loss of Preston Williams, Gesicki should be involved even more while the colts are 28th in points per game allowed to opposing tight ends (15.4).

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAC at OAK | ATL at NO | ARI at TB | KC at TEN | DET at CHI | NYG at NYJ | BUF at CLE | BAL at CIN | MIA at IND | LAR at PIT | CAR at GB | MIN at DAL | SEA at SF