The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
- Despite not playing since the second quarter in Week 7, Patrick Mahomes still leads all passers in fantasy points on throws 15-yards or further on the season (69.2).
- Just 9.4% of Travis Kelce’s fantasy points have come from touchdown output, the lowest rate of the top-25 scorers at the tight end position. The average of those players is 21.0%.
- The Titans have converted 69.6% (16-of-23) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, second in the league.
- Opponents are averaging 4.2 red zone attempts per game against the Chiefs, the most in the league.
- The Titans have used play-action on 17.8% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks (33rd) after using play-action on 33.3% of Marcus Mariota’s dropbacks (fifth).
- Tannehill has averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt while kept clean as opposed to 4.3 yards per attempt under pressure. That 5.1 Y/A drop under pressure is the largest drop off in the league.
- The Chiefs have sacked the opposing quarterback on 11.8% of dropbacks over the past three weeks (third) after 4.8% through six weeks (26th).
- Titans quarterbacks have been sacked on 12.1% of their dropbacks, 31st in the league. Mariota on 13.6% and Tannehill on 10.0%.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Tyreek Hill: Hill has been the WR5 in overall scoring since returning to the lineup in Week 6, catching 20-of-32 targets for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Hill moves all over the field, running 19% of his routes at LWR, 54% in the slot, and 26% at RWR.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Patrick Mahomes: Early in the week, we’re going in expecting him to return to the lineup. Mahomes wasn’t a top-10 scorer in each of his three full games prior to his knee injury, but did have at least 18 fantasy points in each game. If Mahomes is good to go, this will be the first time that all the Chiefs skill players could play a full game together this season. The Titans have allowed multiple touchdown passes to six of the eight quarterbacks they’ve faced, but have allowed just one to throw more than two touchdowns.
- Travis Kelce: Kelce hasn’t reached 70 yards in a game since Week 5. Over his past five games, Kelce has averaged just 7.2 yards per target after 11.2 yards per target through his first four games, but still leads the position with 41 targets over that span. Kelce is due for some positive regression to take hold. The Titans are 12th in the league in yards per target allowed to tight ends (7.1), but have allowed four touchdowns to the position (tied for 22nd).
- Derrick Henry: Henry had 16 touches for 99 yards and two scores in a game in which the Titans trailed throughout, His 12.6 receiving points were more than he had over his previous seven games (12.3). That receiving work may be fleeting, but Henry is averaging 19.4 touches per game (11th) while the Chiefs are 26th in rushing points allowed per game (15.7) to backfields.
- Sammy Watkins: With all of Watkins, Hill, and Kelce on the field for full games the past two weeks, Watkins led the team with 18 targets, while Hill and Kelce had 17. Watkins hasn’t had more than 64 yards in a game since Week 1, but has five or more catches in every game but one so far this season.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Ryan Tannehill: The Chiefs are starting to pressure the quarterback of late and Tannehill’s splits under pressure are a concern. But Tannehill has found his way to fantasy points and has been a clear fantasy upgrade since taking over as the starter. He has been the QB14 (19.2 points), QB10 (19.4), and the QB6 (23.0) in his three starts. Chiefs are 19th in passing points allowed per game (15.2), but have allowed one or fewer touchdown passes to six of the nine starting quarterbacks they’ve faced.
- Damien Williams: Williams has handled 21-of-28 touches in this backfield since LeSean McCoy fumbled in Week 8. Williams had 14 touches for 128 yards last week, with the strength of that coming on a 91-yard touchdown run. Williams played 43 snaps, his most in a week since Week 1 while McCoy played just six snaps and Darrel Williams 10. It’s doubtful we’ve seen the last of McCoy, but for now, Williams has regained control of opportunities. The Titans are 11th in rushing points allowed per game (11.8), but are 28th in receiving points allowed per game (13.0) to backfields.
- Titans WRs: With Tannehill under center, Corey Davis has 22 targets (15-173-1), A.J. Brown 20 targets (13-166-1), and Adam Humphries 18 targets (15-163-0). Davis is looking doubtful, which elevates both Brown and Humphries while Tajae Sharpe will see more snaps. Opponents target their wideouts just 48.2% of the time against the Chiefs — the lowest rate in the league — while the Chiefs rank ninth in yards per target allowed to opposing wideouts (7.68).
- Jonnu Smith: Smith took a step back last week, catching 3-of-5 targets for 18 yards. But Smith is right there with the wideouts mentioned, catching 13-of-16 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown with Tannehill under center, making the target distribution and production in this passing game fairly flat overall since they’ve made the quarterback change. With Delanie Walker out once again this week paired with Davis also likely to miss the game, Smith holds streaming value once again against a Chiefs defense that is 28th in receptions allowed per game (6.4) to opposing tight ends.