The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
|41.0%||17||Opp. Rush %||42.1%||21|
|59.0%||16||Opp. Pass %||57.9%||12|
- Since hiring Sean McVay, the Rams are 10-0 against AFC teams (7-2-1 ATS) in the regular season and 6-0 straight up and against the spread in the Eastern Time Zone.
- The Rams are plus-19 in plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, trailing only the Patriots (plus-20).
- The Steelers have turned the ball over in 15 consecutive games, the longest streak in the league and their longest streak with a turnover since the 2008-2009 seasons (18 games).
- Jared Goff was pressured on 23.2% of his dropbacks over this past two games (lowest rate in the league) after 43.3% through six games, third-highest in the league.
- The Steelers’ plus-21 sack differential is the best in the league.
- Mason Rudolph has a 118.1 quarterback rating from a clean pocket (sixth), but a 37.8 rating under pressure (35th). That 80.3 rating drop under pressure is the largest fall in the league.
- 61.4% of the Steelers’ passing yardage has been through yards after the catch, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 46.7%.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Cooper Kupp: Kupp ranks fourth among all wide receivers in weighted opportunity while he has posted four top-10 weeks over his past six games played. This week, the Rams face a team that can pressure the quarterback and also has a tough time covering slot options (32nd), a cocktail set up for Kupp to build on his heavy opportunity and production.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Jared Goff: Goff has been a QB1 in four of his past five games, but has past three QB1 weeks have come against the Bengals, Falcons, and Seahawks, three teams we’ve been circling as targets all season long. Those three teams also rank 30th, 31st, and 28th in pressure rate defensively, the area that has given Goff and the Rams offense the most trouble this season. Pittsburgh ranks second in pressure rate (30.3%), but are middle of the road in passing points allowed per attempt (18th) and passing points allowed per game (17th) because they are 25th in touchdown rate allowed (5.4%).
- Robert Woods: Woods has run into poor touchdown variance, ranking second in expected touchdown difference (minus-2.8) out of all wideouts. That’s limited him from saving his floor, but Woods still has had fewer than 50 yards receiving in five of his past seven games. The loss of Cooks opens up more targets to potentially find Woods and he runs 40% of his routes from the slot also to get aa piece of the most vulnerable part of the Pittsburgh pass defense.
- Jaylen Samuels: With James Conner unexpected to play, Samuels is in play as an RB2 option once again. Samuels played 40 snaps last week (63.5%) and despite just 10 rushing yards on eight carries, Samuels received 37.1% of the team targets (catching 13 passes for 73 yards) in Week 9, the highest target share for a running back in a game this season. Trey Edmunds out-carried Samuels 12-to-8 and was the more effective runner (73 yards to 10), but Samuels’ receiving ability paired with Rudolph’s unwillingness to push the ball downfield give him a high floor.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Todd Gurley: Gurley has 70 or fewer total yards in six straight games. He is living off touchdown production for fantasy. 42.6% of his fantasy output is solely from touchdowns, the highest rate of the top-50 scorers at the position. Pittsburgh is 11th in rushing points (11.7) and receiving points (9.9) allowed per game to backfields with just four touchdowns to backs on the season.
- Josh Reynolds: Reynolds had eight targets (3-37-1) taking over in Week 8 for Brandin Cooks, but this isn’t the same offensive situation that Reynolds stepped into a year ago when he filled in for Kupp over the back half of 2018. Pittsburgh is third in the league to boundary wideouts, while Cooks was hardly a stable presence for fantasy while active.
- Mason Rudolph: Rudolph had just one scoring week in the top half of the position through five starts. His main issue is handling pressure and that’s what the Rams create, ranking fourth in the league in pressure rate (28.1%).
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster has traded good and unusable games now for the past six weeks, but this may be one time the trend stays on the negative end. Smith-Schuster will run into Jalen Ramsey for the 39% of his routes he runs on the outside while running into Nickell Robey-Coleman for the majority of his 61% slot route rate. Robey-Coleman ranks first in yards allowed per coverage snap from the slot (0.53).
- Diontae Johnson: Johnson’s fantasy viability is all about his dependency on the long touchdown. Johnson has been the WR26, WR13, and WR11 in his three games with a touchdown, but the WR49, WR78, and WR89 in his three games without a touchdown since entering the lineup as a starter in Week 3. The Rams are 11th in touchdown rate allowed to opposing wideouts (3.7%).
- Vance McDonald: The exact same thing applies to McDonald. In his two games with a touchdown, he’s been the TE3 and the TE7, which are his only games higher than TE21 on the season.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Gerald Everett: Everett ran just 19 pass routes (61.3% of dropbacks) when we last saw him in action in Week 8. That was his lowest rate in a game since Week 1 and resulted in a 2-15 game. The Steelers are 23rd in receptions allowed per game (5.1) to opposing tight ends and 26th in catch rate allowed (71.9%) to the position.