The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
|38.7%||10||Opp. Rush %||42.7%||23|
|61.3%||23||Opp. Pass %||57.3%||10|
- Christian McCaffrey’s 246.4 fantasy points are the third-most through eight games of season, trailing only Marshall Faulk in 2000 (264.6) and Priest Holmes in 2002 (268.7).
- McCaffrey has a league-leading four rushing touchdowns of 40 or more yards (no other player has more than one). His longest rushing touchdown on nine rushing scores entering the season was 11 yards.
- 47.8% of McCaffrey’s rushing yardage has come prior to contact, the highest rate for all backs with 100 or more carries on the season.
- Carolina is the only team in the league that has scored more rushing touchdowns (13) than passing touchdowns (nine) on offense and has allowed more rushing touchdowns (14) than passing (10) on defense.
- The Panthers rank 32nd in expected points added through run defense (minus-22.4) while the Packers rank 31st (minus-18.0).
- The Packers defense is averaging minus-11.9 expected points added over their past six games after 10.8 per game over their opening three games.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Christian McCaffrey: He’s blown right through tougher matchups on paper the past three weeks while he finally runs into a soft matchup this week against a Packers defense that is allowing 158.3 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields (26th) and just allowed a dormant Chargers backfield to run for 157 yards on them.
- Aaron Jones: Jones cratered hard last week, totaling just 29 yards on 11 touches, his fewest in a game since Week 3. In Davante Adams’s first game back, he received just 11.4% of the team targets, his lowest rate in a game since Week 3. It’s a good week to bounce back, though, as Carolina has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to opposing backfields and has allowed a league-high 18.8 rushing points per game to the position.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- D.J. Moore: Moore is sixth in the league in target share (28.2%) since Week 5 with at least eight targets in each of his past four games. The only thing in his way of climbing up past WR2 status is that he has just one touchdown on the season and has yet to have a single end zone target on the season. The Packers are 22nd in yards allowed per game (77.6) to opposing WR1 options.
- Curtis Samuel: Samuel has sort of turned into Carolina Marvin Jones here over the course of the fantasy season. Samuel has seven or fewer targets and four or fewer receptions in five of his past six games, but nearly all of his targets are high-leverage ones. Samuel has a team-leading 16.3-yard average depth of target and leads the team in red zone (15) and end zone (five) targets on the season. Since Week 5, the Packers have allowed a league-high 11 receptions of 30-plus yards.
- Davante Adams: Adams returned to the lineup last week and immediately received 31.4% of the team targets. His 11 targets resulted in just seven catches and 41 yards, but his claim on the passing game isn’t challenged by anyone else in this offense. For as good as Carolina has been against the pass this season, they have allowed a league-high 15.9 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers, but rank fifth against the position in fantasy points per target and fourth in touchdown rate allowed to the position (2.48%).
- Aaron Rodgers: We’ve talked a lot in this space about how Rodgers has been more matchup driven this season than assumed when he was wrecking through the Eagles, Detroit, Oakland, and Kansas City secondaries. Rodgers has faced four defenses in the top half of expected points added via pass defense and has been the QB19 or lower in all four of those games. The Panthers currently rank fourth in that area. The Panthers are fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.34) and have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just three games this season with no games of three or more touchdown passes. The Panthers have allowed top-10 scoring weeks to Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill, so they aren’t unbeatable, but until Rodgers toasts one of these better pass defenses for a QB1 scoring game, we shouldn’t just treat him like a top-5 option and forget fantasy commodity.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Kyle Allen: Allen has been a QB1 in just one of his six starts, but has thrown two or more touchdown passes in three of his past four games. The Packers started the season strong against the pass, but have allowed 9.5 yards per pass attempt the past five games.
- Greg Olsen: Olsen has all but flatlined here in the transition to Allen to under center. He hasn’t been a TE1 option since Week 3 with 11 catches for 110 yards over that span. The positive news is that he’s not coming off the field, playing 89.1% of the snaps this season, which is the fourth-most at tight end. The Packers have allowed tight ends to catch 22-of-34 targets for 319 yards and four touchdowns over their past four games.
- Jamaal Williams: Williams keeps fighting off touchdown regression and keeps running into positive matchups on paper to keep the lights on from full-fading that regression from taking hold. Williams has just seven, 10, and eight touches the past three weeks, but has found the end zone each of those weeks and four games in a row. Nobody has allowed more touchdowns to opposing backfields than the Panthers, so Williams once again stays in play as a FLEX option.