The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 21.7 | 19 | Points/Gm | 28.8 | 4 |
| 27.9 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 31.5 | 31 |
| 62.8 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 68.5 | 3 |
| 66.8 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.1 | 24 |
| 38.6% | 22 | Rush% | 38.5% | 23 |
| 61.4% | 11 | Pass% | 61.5% | 10 |
| 42.1% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 34.8% | 4 |
| 57.9% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 65.2% | 29 |
- The Buccaneers rank 30th in points per play allowed (.476) while Arizona ranks 27th (.418).
- Tampa Bay ranks 29th in red zone possessions allowed per game (3.9) while Arizona ranks 28th (3.8).
- Arizona ranks 32nd in non-passing fantasy points allowed per game (87.1) while Tampa Bay ranks 29th (83.9).
- Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in completions allowed per game (26.1) while Arizona ranks 31st (25.9).
- Tampa Bay ranks first in the league in blitz rate (41.6%) while Arizona ranks second (40.9%).
- Opposing offenses average 54.0 touches per game against Arizona, trailing only Cincinnati (54.3) and Washington (55.1).
- Kyler Murray ranks 10th in the league in yards per pass attempt using play action (10.1 Y/A), but 28th in yards per attempt without (6.2 Y/A).
- Jameis Winston has relied on the least amount of yards after the catch passing yardage (34.3%) for any quarterback this season.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Jameis Winston: Winston has thrown for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in five of his past six games with at least 17.5 fantasy points in five of those games. The Cardinals have been a target for us all season for passers, ranking 31st in passing points allowed per game (22.2) and a league-high 24 touchdown passes.
- Kyler Murray: Murray bounced back last week after two down weeks in a tough spot against the 49ers (23.0 points). This week, things get much easier against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in passing points allowed (21.4). The Bucs have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to all of Russell Willson (39.2), Ryan Tannehill (19.4), Kyle Allen (17.4), Teddy Bridgewater (27.3), Jared Goff (20.7), and Daniel Jones (34.2) over the past six weeks.
- Mike Evans: Evans has a bye week mixed in, but still ranks first among wide receivers in fantasy points (97.4), air yards (665), receiving yards (474), and third in targets (45), and receptions (32) over the past four weeks. Even going past his recent hot surge, Evans has been a top-10 scorer in five of his past six games. Evans has faced Patrick Peterson twice in his career, with lines of 6-70-1 and 3-95-1 in those games total. Peterson hasn’t been dominant in his return, allowing 14-of-17 targets in his coverage to be completed for 204 yards and two touchdowns (131.4 rating).
- Chris Godwin: With Evans going bananas of late, Godwin had two of his three lowest-scoring games of the season over the past two weeks. Even while being overshadowed, Godwin has still had eight and nine targets come in his direction with double-digit points in each of those games. Arizona is 31st to opposing slot wideouts, where Godwin runs 65% of his routes.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Ronald Jones: Jones led the Tampa Bay backfield in Week 9, making his first career NFL start, setting a season-high with 42 snaps and totaling 20 touches for 82 yards. Bruce Arians doubled down on his usage and backed Jones as the lead option moving forward. Jones has rushed for just 3.6 yards per carry over his past five games and hasn’t had more than two catches in a game yet, but Arizona has allowed 147.3 total yards per game to opposing backfields over the past seven weeks with five individual backs reaching 100 yards in a game.
- Cardinals RBs: David Johnson is expected to be active this week to join Kenyan Drake in the backfield. Given how well Drake played in his Arizona debut (162 total yards) to go along with the trepidation of Johnson’s injuries this season, we should expect a split here. 65.4% of Johnson’s fantasy points have come from receiving work and he can be used in that capacity still even with Drake handling a larger role in the rushing game than the one that Chase Edmonds was handling with both he and Johnson active. Tampa Bay is fourth in rushing points allowed per game to backs (8.6) and third in receiving points allowed per game (7.8), but the Bucs have allowed opposing backfields to reach 107.3 yards per game over their past four games played.
- Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald: Neither Arizona wideout has shown a large ceiling to date. Kirk has three WR2 games this year, but also three WR4 games or worse. Fitzgerald was a strong floor play to start the season, but has caught just seven passes for 58 yards the past three weeks. While we can’t count on a ceiling being expected from either, they do have a positive outlook. The Bucs are equal opportunity givers to opposing wideouts, ranking 30th to opposing boundary wideouts per game, but also 27th to opposing slot options. On the outside, KeeSean Johnson led the team with 14 routes run while Andy Isabella ran a season-high 10 pass routes. Both scored a touchdown last week, but both of those options are only longer plays based on matchup elevation on that type of low usage.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- O.J. Howard: The stoppable force against a beatable object. Howard has just 13 catches for 176 yards in six games this season with a high-scoring week of TE15 (9.6 points). Returning to the lineup from a hamstring injury, Howard faces an Arizona defense we have targeted all season with tight ends. Arizona has allowed seven top-10 scoring tight ends on the season.
More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
LAC at OAK | ATL at NO | ARI at TB | KC at TEN | DET at CHI | NYG at NYJ | BUF at CLE | BAL at CIN | MIA at IND | LAR at PIT | CAR at GB | MIN at DAL | SEA at SF
