Lions vs Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

• Games played in Chicago this season have averaged a combined 32.3 points, the fewest in the league.
• Detroit ranks 29th in fantasy yards allowed per drive (40.1) defensively.
• Chicago ranks 31st in fantasy yards per drive (26.3) offensively.
• The Bears have averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per play in six games this season, trailing only the Dolphins (seven).
• Mitchell Trubisky has completed 72.4% of his passes from a clean pocket, but just 40.6% under pressure. That 31.8% completion rate drop under pressure in the second-largest in the league behind Tom Brady (-42.5%).
• 28.2% of Trubisky’s pass attempts have resulted in a first down, ahead of only Josh Rosen (23.9%) for all 34 passers with 100 or more attempts on the season. 
• The Lions average the most offensive plays of 20 or more yards per game on offense (5.4) and 27th in those plays allowed per game on defense (5.4).
• The Bears are 29th in plays of 20 or more yards per game on offense (2.8).
• Matthew Stafford leads all NFL passers with an 11.4 yard average depth of target.
• Opposing passers have a 6.8-yard average depth of target against the Bears, 31st in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• David Montgomery: Montgomery had touchdown deodorant in his corner last week with two 1-yard plunges, but was in one of the toughest rushing matchups. Montgomery has 31 and 17 touches the past two weeks and trades that rough matchup for a soft one here. We’ve been here before with Montgomery and had the football pulled on us like Charlie Brown, but here we are again. Detroit is 29th in rushing points allowed per game (18.0) and 30th in receiving points allowed per game (14.9) to backfields.  The latter of which gives some FLEX appeal to Tarik Cohen on a week missing so many teams. Cohen had 13 receptions in two games versus Detroit a year ago.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Kenny Golladay: Golladay has hit for 17 or more points in four of his past five games, but all were in strong spots coming in. This is a matchup of a vertical passing game facing one of the league’s best vertical passing defenses. The Bears don’t give up splash plays in the passing game and rank seventh in yardage allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (59.0). Golladay’s overall volume (22.4% of the team targets) keeps him in lineups, but without the ceiling expectations he’s had over the past few weeks. 
• Allen Robinson: Last week was a strong reminder that no matter how good the matchup looks for Robinson, he’s still attached to a quarterback that can submarine his week. Robinson is fifth in the league in team target share (25.7%) and 10th in targets per game (8.9), but he hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 1. Robinson will be shadowed by Darius Slay on the outside, where he runs 61% of his routes, but Slay has played in the slot for just 12.6% of his snaps this season, where Robinson runs 39% of his routes. Inside, Robinson should find Justin Coleman, who has allowed the most touchdown receptions from slot wideouts (four) this season.  

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Jeff Driskel: With Matthew Stafford unlikely to play, Driskel will draw the start for the Lions. He made five starts to close the 2018 season with an average fantasy finish of  QB22.  The Bears have yet to allow a top-12 quarterback and have allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in six of their eight games. Chicago ranks sixth in the league in pressure rate (27.2%) entering Week 10. 
• Marvin Jones: The Marvin-Coaster has had some high points recently, with WR1 and WR4 scoring weeks in two of his past three games. Jones now has three top-12 scoring weeks on the season and four weeks at WR52 or lower. This is a week to signal one of those potential down weeks as Chicago is allowing a 20-yard completion on just 9.9% of completed passes against them (second-fewest). 
• Lions RBs: Ty Johnson played 44 snaps last week, but managed just 36 yards on 12 touches. J.D. McKissic maximized his 27 snaps played with 72 yards and a touchdown, but had just seven touches. Johnson even ran more pass routes (24) than McKissic (18) which makes it hard to latch onto the pass-catching role here. That’s the role we want to invest in because the Lions can’t run. Lions backs have carried 75 times for 258 yards (3.4 YPC) over their four games since their Week 5 bye.
• T.J. Hockenson: He hasn’t been a top-12 scorer since Week 1, catching 16 passes for 165 yards over his past seven games. The Bears have allowed a top-12 tight end in two of their past three games and rank 23rd in yards per target allowed to the position (8.3 yards), but we’ve had Hockenson in similar spots weekly and have been left empty-handed.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in five of his seven starts and his 5.6 yards per pass attempt are fewer than Luke Falk’s 5.7 Y/A this season. If that doesn’t get you excited to entertain him as a streaming option, then you’re just not alive. He gets as good of an outlook as possible here against a Lions pass defense that ranks 26th in passing points allowed per game (19.5) and has allowed a top-12 scorer in seven of eight games this season. Trubisky only faced the Lions last season, but was the QB1 in overall scoring that week with 36.0 fantasy points.