The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
|49.2%||30||Opp. Rush %||34.5%||3|
|50.8%||3||Opp. Pass %||65.5%||30|
- Atlanta road games have averaged 60.8 combined points scored per game, trailing only Tampa Bay (61.6).
- The Falcons have allowed opponents to score on 65.7% of their drives and a touchdown on 48.6% of their drives on the road, the highest rates in the league.
- The Saints have scored on 51.3% of their possessions at home this season, second in the league.
- The Falcons have trailed by double-digit points for 59.6% of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Michael Thomas leads all wide receivers in catchable target rate (88.5%).
- Thomas has accounted for 65.9% of the Saints wide receiver targets, the highest share for a wideout in the league. The next highest receiver (Allen Robinson) is at 48.9%.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Drew Brees: Brees has thrown for 370 and 373 yards in his two full games this season. Those games came at home against Houston and Arizona, and he gets another home soft matchup here. Atlanta is 29th in passing points allowed per game (19.8) and have allowed multiple touchdown passes to five straight quarterbacks.
- Michael Thomas: Thomas has eight or more catches in seven of eight games this season, including five games in a row. His 73 receptions are now the second-most through eight games of a season, trailing Adam Thielen from a year ago. The Falcons are 29th in points allowed to opposing wideouts, while allowing 12 touchdowns to the position, tied for the third-most.
- Julio Jones: Jones posted games of 8-108, 6-93, and 10-152 in his three games prior to the bye. He has a strong track record of giving the Saints fits, posting 96 or more yards in five straight meetings between these teams. The last time these teams played in Week 12 of last season, the Saints tried to double Jones often while shadowing Ridley with Marshon Lattimore. If they do shadow with Lattimore, he’s improved after a rough start to the year. After allowing 20-of-27 targets in his coverage to be completed for 341 yards and two touchdowns (140.6 rating) through three games, Lattimore has allowed 12-of-27 targets to be completed for 137 yards and zero scores over his past five games (44.8 rating).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Alvin Kamara: Kamara rested the two games prior to the Saints bye week. In his lone game played with Brees, Kamara had 169 yards on 20 touches. He did play 76% of the snaps in that game while his absence allowed Latavius Murray to work his way into a larger piece of the backfield. Through five weeks, Kamara was averaging 20.2 touches per game and Murray just 6.0. That said, we’ve seen Kamara operate as a high-end fantasy option sharing work before and this game is going to have scoring opportunities. In three full games versus Atlanta, Kamara has had 98, 190, and 90 yards from scrimmage, but has yet to score a touchdown against them.
- Matt Ryan: Ryan is averaging 26.0 fantasy points per game on the road this season, the most of all quarterbacks in the league. The Saints have gotten hot against the pass, allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt to Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Mitchell Trubisky, and Kyler Murray over their past five games with just four touchdown passes allowed. New Orleans is second in the NFL in pressure rate (29.1%) while Ryan has faced just two top-10 teams in pressure rate so far this season in the Eagles (19.1 fantasy points) and the Rams (2.6 points). Ryan had major fantasy success against the Saints a year ago, throwing for 374 and 377 yards with seven touchdown passes.
- Austin Hooper: Hooper has caught just 13-of-17 targets for 95 yards with no touchdowns in five career games against the Saints, but he has been a top-eight scorer in every game but one this season as he leads the position in routes run (37.4) and receptions (6.5) per game. New Orleans ranks 10th in points allowed to tight ends, but the best fantasy option they’ve faced this season was Will Dissly, who managed a 6-62-1 line.
- Jared Cook: Cook also sat out the two games prior to the Saints bye week with an ankle injury. On track to return, Cook has yet to have more than 41 yards or four catches in a game this season. Atlanta ranks eighth in yards per target allowed to tight ends (6.9 yards) but has allowed four touchdowns to the position over their past four games.
- Calvin Ridley: In his first game without Mohamed Sanu, nothing really changed for Ridley. He received 13.5% of the team targets and hasn’t reached 20% of the team’s looks in a game since Week 2. The Saints took different angles at defending the Atlanta wideouts last year. After Ridley torched them for 7-146-3 in Week 3 last year, New Orleans tried to shadow Ridley with Lattimore while devoting cloud coverage to Jones. In that game, Ridley still had 8-93-1.
- Devonta Freeman: This is a matchup where Freeman is going to have to keep tallying catches to elevate his floor. Freeman is averaging just 4.2 rushing points per game (44th), but is averaging 10.0 receiving points per game (sixth). New Orleans is third in rushing points allowed (8.4) to backfields, but are 22nd in receptions allowed per game (5.8) to running backs.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Latavius Murray: Murray should have played his way into a larger role during Kamara’s absence while the Saints may be more cautious with Kamara in general over the back half of the season after he was nicked up to close the front half. Murray played just 28% of the team snaps through five weeks with 30 total touches. With an unknown workload, Murray slides back into FLEX territory, but the Falcons have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing backs on the season (21st).
- Ted Ginn: Ginn hasn’t had more than three catches or 48 yards in a game since Week 1, but he’s always in our peripheral view when the Saints are home. Opposing passers have completed 24-of-43 (55.8%) of their targets on throws 15 or more yards downfield, the highest rate in the league. League average is 41.6% outside of them.
- Russell Gage: Gage replaced Sanu in the lineup in Week 8, playing 57% of the team snaps, running 35 pass routes and catching 7-of-9 targets for 58 yards. 77.1% of his routes came from the slot, where the Saints are 30th in points allowed to wideouts.