The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Monday Night Football game on October 14, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
Check out this week’s unlocked Worksheet matchup: Eagles at Vikings
|36.8%||9||Opp. Rush %||41.1%||20|
|63.2%||24||Opp. Pass %||58.9%||13|
- Since 2012, the Lions are 6-1 after a bye week, trailing only the Patriots (12-2) for the best record over that span.
- Detroit has won four straight games versus Green Bay, their longest winning streak in the rivalry since 1982-1983.
- Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine consectuive games against the Packers, the longest such streak for an opponent in Green Bay history.
- 26.9% of Stafford’s pass attempts have been on deep targets (third in the league). Just 14.2% of his pass attempts in 2018 were deep attempts, (30th).
- The Lions are first in the league in average depth of target passing (10.8 yards) and last in the league in depth of target faced per pass on defense (11.9 yards).
- Opponents are averaging 12.8 plays per game in the red zone against the Lions, second behind only Miami (14.0).
- Aaron Jones has 11 carries inside of the 10-yard line (tied for the league lead). Green Bay had just 16 rushing attempts from inside of the 10-yard line all of 2018.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Kerryon Johnson: Johnson has played 75% and 70% of the snaps the Lions released C.J. Anderson with 21 and 28 touches in those games. The Packers have allowed 110, 191, 203, 218, and 130 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields with seven touchdowns to the position.
- Aaron Jones: Jones has at least 15 fantasy points in each of the past four game. He has 19 and 26 touches the past two weeks with Jamaal Williams on the field. Williams could return to action this week, but Jones has proven his worth to this offense. He also only played 68% of the snaps last week while Tra Carson had 10 touches, so there’s groundwork for Jones to play more than he did at the start of the season, while also conceding snaps and touches. The Lions are 30th in the league in points allowed to opposing backfields (29th) and 27th in yards from scrimmage allowed (163.5 per game) to the position.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Kenny Golladay: Golladay has at least eight targets in every game this season and found the end zone in three of four games. Even with a bye week, he’s tied for the league-lead with seven end zone targets. He had 4-98-1 in his lone game against the Packers a year ago, but Jaire Alexander was not active that game. Alexander started the season off hot, but had his hands full a week ago with Amari Cooper, allowing 201 yards in his coverage.
- Marvin Jones: Over the past three games, Jones is right behind Golladay in receptions (14 to 15) and has more receiving yards (221-201) despite having seven fewer targets. Jones will see Kevin King on Monday, who has allowed the fifth-highest yards per coverage snap in the league through five weeks.
- Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has been the QB9 or higher in each of his past five games against the Lions, throwing 15 touchdown passes to one interception in those games. Detroit has allowed a top-12 scorer in three of their four games. No Adams once again limits his ceiling.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- T.J. Hockenson: A threat to score (four end zone targets), but Hockenson is not getting the usage outside of the red zone. He’s run a pass route on just 41.7% of his snaps since Week 1 with 10 total targets over those three games. Zach Ertz is the only tight end to have more than three receptions in a game versus the Packers and they rank seventh in yards per target allowed (6.5) to the position.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s had just 13.2% and 11.8% of the team targets the past two weeks and has been higher than WR46 just once through five games. That’s not trustworthy on a team that has gone pass-heavy while the highest WR2 finish against the Lions has been WR41 by Mike Williams.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Matthew Stafford: Stafford has had two spike weeks as a top-5 option, but also has two as a QB17 or lower. The two spike weeks were noticeable coming in (ARI and KC). Green Bay allowed a lot of late-game production last week to Dak Prescott and five passing touchdowns the past two weeks, but had allowed 230 passing yards or less in four of their five games.
- Jimmy Graham: Graham has played 70% of the snaps in each of the past two games after playing 56% the opening three weeks. Graham still has had more than three catches just once on the season, but he is tied for the team lead in end zone targets (four) while Detroit is allowing 10.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (28th).
- Geronimo Allison: He had just two catches for 28 yards last week, but his six targets trailed only Aaron Jones. Allison has three end zone targets (second on the team) and Detroit is second-to-last in points allowed to opposing slot wideouts on the season.