The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 New England Patriots vs New York Jets Monday Night Football game on October 21, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
New EnglandRank@NY JetsRank
26Implied Total16.5
81Points All./Gm24.621
56.84Opp. Plays/Gm65.823
31.1%1Opp. Rush %41.3%20
68.9%32Opp. Pass %58.7%13
  • In the past 20 games where the Patriots have been favored by 10 or more points, they’ve gone 19-1 straight-up and 16-4 against the spread. 
  • New England is averaging 123.8 more passing yards per game than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
  • The Patriots average 9.7 more first downs per game than their opponents, the largest differential in the league.
  • The Patriots are +17 in plays of 20-plus yards than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
  • Opposing passers have completed a league-low 18.0% (9-of-50) of their deep passes (15-plus yards downfield) against the Patriots. League average outside of them is 43.3%.
  • Tom Brady has completed 55.3% (21-of-38) of his deep passing attempts, the highest rate for all quarterbacks with 20 or more attempts.
  • The Jets scored on 4-of-9 (44.4%) possessions in Week 6 after scoring on 3-of-53 (5.7%) drives through five weeks.
  • The Jets averaged 7.3 yards per play in Week 6 (second) after averaging 3.8 yards per play through five weeks (32nd).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Tom Brady: He’s been a QB1 in every game played outside of facing Buffalo, which includes a 20.1 game against the Jets in Week 3, a game where the Patriots called off the dogs early in the second half. 
  • Julian Edelman: He’s been a top-10 wideout the past two weeks with 19.2, 25.0, and 20.3 fantasy points in his three games outside of playing the Bills in Week 4. That includes a 7-62-1 game on 10 targets versus the Jets in Week 3 when he played a season-low 50.6% of the snaps when he was forced to leave early due to injury. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Le’Veon Bell: Darnold couldn’t fix Bell’s inefficiency since the Jets still can’t run block. Bell had 15 touches for 53 yards, but Darnold did set him up next to the goal line for a touchdown opportunity. Bell had just one target, which won’t happen again and Bell has double-digit points in every game this season.
  • Sony Michel: Michel has been the RB9 and RB22 the past two weeks while registering his two highest snaps (48.7% and 50%) of the season. With Rex Burkhead inactive in each game, Michel has run 33 pass routes, catching five passes for 59 yards. Burkhead should return this week, which compromises all that usage, but it’s another game in which Michel should get significant usage with the lead. Michel did only have 11 yards on nine carries when these teams played in Week 3, but managed to find the end zone.
  • Phillip Dorsett: Dorsett is expected to be back this Monday, but Josh Gordon’s status looks skeptical this early in the week. Dorsett had 15.6% and 23.1% of the team targets in his two full games after the release of Antonio Brown, which includes a 6-53-1 on seven targets versus the Jets in Week 3.
  • James White: A model of consistency, White has been the RB19-RB23 in all five of his games, He has nine or more targets in each of his past three games while the Jets are 22nd in receiving points per game (11.3) to backfields. 
  • Jamison Crowder: If there’s a Jets wideout to play, Crowder has games of 14-99 and 6-98 in Darnold’s two starts and the team is still expected to be without Chris Herndon for another game. Golden Tate posted a 6-102-1 line in the slot last week against New England. You can’t count on the long touchdown reception, but Crowder still has FLEX viability. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Sam Darnold: He returned to the lineup and instantly gave this entire offense a pulse for fantasy once again. His schedule gets really strong moving forward, but we’re not pushing our luck here against a Patriots defense that hasn’t allowed a passer to finish higher than QB23 on the season. In his lone start against the Patriots as a rookie, Darnold was the QB25 (7.5 points).
  • Robby Anderson: He connected on the long ball last week, but has an abysmal history versus the Patriots and Stephon Gilmore. In seven career games against the Patriots, Anderson has caught 15-of-38 targets for 169 yards and zero touchdowns.

More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

KC at DEN | OAK at GB | SF at WAS | LAR at ATL | MIA at BUF | JAX at CIN | ARI at NYG | HOU at IND | MIN at DET | LAC at TEN | BAL at SEA | NO at CHI | PHI at DAL | NE at NYJ