The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
ChicagoRank@PhiladelphiaRank
5Spread-5
19.25Implied Total24.25
18.327Points/Gm25.214
17.46Points All./Gm24.921
62.422Plays/Gm65.19
63.719Opp. Plays/Gm62.114
37.3%25Rush%45.1%8
62.7%8Pass%54.9%25
37.9%10Opp. Rush %37.8%9
62.1%23Opp. Pass %62.2%24
  • Just 17.6% of Mitchell Trubisky’s passing yardage is off of play-action passes, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Trubisky averages 3.2 yards per pass attempt under pressure, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Trubisky is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket, 32nd out of 34 passers to play at least 25% of his team’s snaps this season. 
  • Carson Wentz is averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket, ahead of only Josh Rosen (5.3 Y/A).
  • The Bears have the fewest runs to gain 10 or more yards (eight) on the season on offense while they have allowed the fewest runs of 10 or more yards (11) on the season on defense.
  • The Bears rank first in the league in the rate of runs allowed to gain five or more yards (26.4%) while the Eagles rank fourth (29.9%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Allen Robinson: Robinson has at least 20% of the team targets and at least seven targets overall in every game this season. He’s posted a 69.7% catch rate in his second season with the Bears after a 58.5% rate in 2018. The Eagles rank 30th in points per game allowed to opposing WR1 options (19.4) while Robinson touched this defense up for a 10-143-1 line last postseason on 13 targets. The Eagles didn’t make a move at cornerback at the deadline, so Robinson is still set up for one of his best outlooks.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Eagles TEs: Zach Ertz has just 8-112-0 on 18 targets the past three games while Dallas Goedert has 12-139-2 on 17 targets. Ertz has still run 87 pass routes in those games compared to 53 for Goedert, so the target could swing back in his direction, but Goedert is getting high-leverage targets when in the game. Goedert now is second on the team with four end zone targets while Ertz has just one on the season. The Bears are 18th in points per target allowed to opposing tight ends (1.83) and 22nd in yardage allowed per game (58.0 yards). The Eagles have used two tight ends on 51% of their plays the past five weeks – the highest rate in the league- so the return of Jackson could bring that number down some. 
  • Alshon Jeffery: Jeffery is averaging 45.3 yards per game, which would be his fewest per game in a season since his rookie season in 2012. His 10.6 yards per catch would be a career-low by far if it holds. That said, he still commands targets (26.9% over his past five games) while he’s posted 6-82-0 and 5-52-1 lines facing his old team while with the Eagles. If DeSean Jackson remains out, Jeffery is a volume-based WR3.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Carson Wentz: Wentz is getting DeSean Jackson back to help his cause this week. His return is much needed as Wentz has averaged 215.4 passing yards and 6.7 yards per pass attempt since Week 1 with fewer than 200 passing yards in four of the past five weeks. This Chicago defense is not quite the juggernaut it was a year ago, but they still have yet to allow a top-12 scorer on the season and are seventh in passing points allowed (12.9) per game.
  • DeSean Jackson: Jackson’s return is welcome to an offense that has struggled throwing vertically in his absence. But the Bears are not giving up big plays downfield, ranking third in the league in rate of completions to go for 20 or more yards (10.7%). In his first game back, Jackson is a volatile FLEX option.
  • David Montgomery: Montgomery set season-highs in snap rate (73%), touches (31), and yards from scrimmage (147) last week as Matt Nagy kept his word in trying to establish the run more. That was much easier to do at home last week against a bleeding-out Charger defensive line that has been hemorrhaging rushing yardage the past three weeks as opposed to this Eagles run defense on the road. The Eagles are allowing 3.45 yards per carry (third) to opposing backs and have let just one lead reach 50 yards on the ground this season.
  • Miles Sanders: Sanders has just 21 carries over the past four weeks, but keeps showcasing his big-play ability as he leads all running backs in receptions of 20 or more yards (six). His two touchdowns on the season have come from 32 and 65 yards out, which highlights his ability, but also is hard to rely on for reaching the end zone. Picking up a shoulder injury last week also leaves his status questionable, although early word is that injury is not considered serious. The Bears are a defense that limits big plays in the run game as highlighted in the open, while they also rank third in the league in the rate of 20-plus yard completions (10.7%) allowed.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Jordan Howard: Howard is coming off a season-high 24 touches for 111 yards last week. The rub with Howard is that without a touchdown opportunity, there’s a low floor here. The highest Howard has finished in a week without a touchdown is RB28. The Bears have struggled to defend the run in two of the past three weeks, but the two teams to have success against them, New Orleans and Oakland, rank in the top-5 in adjusted line yards while the Eagles are mid-pack at 18.
  • Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky has just one game this season in which he’s averaged more than 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt and that came against Washington. That said, Trubisky has had a rough schedule to date, facing the Packers, Broncos, Vikings, Saints, and Chargers while he’s been a matchup-dependent fantasy option dating back to last season. The Eagles are 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.47) and 25th in passing points allowed per game (16.9) since teams are forced to be so pass-heavy against them. Trubisky was 26-of-43 for 303 yards and a touchdown in the meeting between these teams a year ago.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG