Packers vs Chargers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.

Green Bay	Rank	@	LA Chargers	Rank
-3.5		Spread	3.5
25.25		Implied Total	21.75
26.9	7	Points/Gm	19.6	23
20.4	12	Points All./Gm	19.6	10
63.1	19	Plays/Gm	60	26
62.6	15	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.9	4
40.6%	18	Rush%	33.3%	30
59.4%	15	Pass%	66.7%	3
40.9%	17	Opp. Rush %	49.5%	30
59.1%	16	Opp. Pass %	50.5%	3

The Packers have won seven consecutive games versus the AFC while going 6-1 against the spread in those games.
The Chargers have rushed for a league-low 142 yards and 2.3 yards per carry over their past four games.
The Chargers are the first team to rush for fewer than 40 yards in four straight games since 1946.
The Chargers have converted just 4-of-20 (20%) of their offensive snaps from inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 46.6%.
The Packers have targeted their backfield 26.6% of the time this season (sixth in the league) after just 17.0% in 2018 (22nd).
Aaron Rodgers ranks first in the league in red zone pass attempts (49), attempts from inside of the 10-yard line (22), and is tied for the lead in attempts from inside of the 5-yard line (13).
Aaron Jones ranks third in the league in red zone fantasy points (71.3), first in fantasy points from inside of the 10-yard line (54.9), and first in fantasy points from inside of the 5-yard line (39.4).
Jones’s 11 touchdowns are tied with Ahman Green in 2003 for the most by a Packers player through eight games of a season.
The Packers have averaged 7.3 yards per offensive play the past three weeks (first) after 5.6 yards per play (23rd) through five weeks of the season.
Green Bay is allowing 8.8 yards per pass play over the past four weeks (31st) after allowing 5.7 yards per pass play (fourth) through four weeks.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Aaron Jones: Jones has out-touched Williams 36-17 the past two weeks as he has added some distance between the two once again as the lead back. Jones is running extremely hot in the touchdown department. 36.7% of his fantasy points are from touchdowns alone, which is the highest rate for all top-12 running backs on the season. While there’s sure to be some regression from reaching the end zone, the Packers run into a strong matchup for their backfield. The Chargers have allowed 201, 110, 208, and 214 yards from scrimmage to the Bears, Titans, Steelers, and Broncos backfields over the past four games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Davante Adams: Adams returns to the lineup after missing the past four games. He returns without a touchdown yet and ranks fourth among wideouts in negative touchdown expectancy on the season at minus-2.1 touchdowns scored. While Adams will surely be shadowed on the perimeter by Casey Hayward, Adams was also running 28% of his routes from the slot, where Hayward has played just five snaps all season.
Aaron Rodgers: Getting Adams back is a boost to an already surging Rodgers. After one QB1 scoring week through five games, Rodgers has reeled off three in a row with 10 touchdown passes to one interception. The Chargers are eighth in the league in passing points allowed (13.5) and this game has potential to be a slowly-paced affair, but the Chargers have faced just two top-12 passers this season in Deshaun Watson (25.8 points) and Matthew Stafford (15.1).
Philip Rivers: Rivers has averaged just 6.7 yards per pass attempt the past four games after 8.6 yards per attempt over his first four games. He’s run into a tough schedule over that stretch and the Chargers have become a one-dimensional offense. The Packers started off the season strong against the pass, but have allowed 18 or more fantasy points to opposing passers in four of their past five games.
Keenan Allen: Allen has averaged just 42.6 yards per game over the past five weeks, but has bounced back in the volume department, receiving 28.9% and 34.5% of the team targets the past two weeks. Allen should see all the Green Bay defenders this week as he runs 25% of his routes at LWR, 21% at RWR, and 53% in the slot. The slot is where the Packers have been their best against wideouts for fantasy (11th) while 20th on the outside.
Hunter Henry: Henry had at least 20% of the team targets in each of his three games since returning while the Packers have allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the past two weeks.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has also felt the sting of this offensive line decline paired with a tougher run schedule as he has just 31 rushing yards on 16 carries over the past four weeks. But he’s still turned in three top-30 scoring weeks over that span due to his receiving output. The receiving work has been sporadic, with 15, three, seven, and two receptions over that span, but with the Chargers potentially having a broken run game, he’s still an asset if they are going to remain so pass-heavy. The Packers are 17th in receiving points allowed per game (10.5) to opposing backfields.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Jimmy Graham: Graham had just 13.3% of the team targets while Adams was out with just one top-12 scoring week. He still leads the team with six end zone targets, but he is only an option for those chasing a touchdown.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Melvin Gordon: Gordon’s snap share has held steady at 59.7%, 53.1%, and 55.6% the past three games, but everything is working against him. Gordon himself has been lackluster with 2.5 yards per carry and 3.4 yards per catch since returning to the lineup in Week 5. The matchups have been rough (DEN, PIT, TEN, CHI) and the Chargers interior line is just flat-out broken. The matchup gets a little better this week as Green Bay is 29th in rushing points allowed (16.9) and 24th in yards from scrimmage allowed per game (151.0) to backs.
Mike Williams: Williams has just six targets in each of the past two games and had just two weeks this season inside of the top-40 scorers. Williams is due some scoring regression, having a team-leading seven end zone targets, but still has zero touchdowns on the seasons. He runs 58% of his routes on the perimeter where the Packers have been more giving of late.
Jamaal Williams: I would have a lot more concern for Williams’s touchdown dependency than that of Jones since Williams has just 10 touches for 36 yards and seven touches for 31 yards the past two games to go along with three touchdowns. As mentioned, this matchup is strong enough to keep Williams in play as a FLEX option.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: