Vikings vs Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

• The Chiefs run defense ranks 32nd in the rate of runs to gain positive yardage (89.5%), rate of runs to gain five or more yards (44.3%), and 27th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (12.7%).
• Dalvin Cook leads the league in runs of five or more yards (60), is tied for the lead in runs of 10 or more yards (21), and ranks second in positive run rate (86.5%).
• Kansas City is allowing a league-high 4.2 red zone attempts per game. 
• The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 36.1% of their possessions in Arrowhead this season, the second-highest home rate this season, ahead of only Miami (41.5%) this season.
• The Vikings have averaged a league-high 10.3 yards per pass play over the past four weeks after averaging 6.9 yards per pass play through four weeks (14th).
• Opponents have a 14-to-1 passing to rushing touchdown ratio (93.3%) against Minnesota, the highest passing rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Dalvin Cook: He trails only Christian McCaffrey (29.8) in points per game (24.1) has been a top-5 scorer in six of his eight games. His two non-top-5 scoring weeks were identifiable coming in while this is another soft matchup. The Chiefs are allowing 181.0 yards from scrimmage per game (31st) to opposing backfields while allowing 10 touchdowns to the position (29th).
• Kirk Cousins: The fantasy points didn’t follow for Cousins last week (11.6) as he ran into poor touchdown luck after completing 23-of-26 passes for 285 yards (11.0 yards per attempt). He now leads the league with 9.3 yards per pass attempts and gets his fifth-straight profitable matchup in a row. The Chiefs have faced four QB1 scorers this season and have allowed Lamar Jackson to be the QB10 (21.3 points), Matthew Stafford to be the QB4 (23.4 points), Deshaun Watson to be the QB3 (29.4 points), and Aaron Rodgers to be the QB3 (27.1).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Travis Kelce: Kelce bit into some of his expected touchdown regression last week (he’s still minus-2.1 expected scores on the season). Kelce has been targeted 13 times (24.1%) by Matt Moore, but has reeled in just six (46.2%) for 77 yards. The Vikings have allowed solid games to the notable tight ends they’ve faced, allowing the Eagles tight ends to combine for nine catches for 102 yards and then Evan Engram (6-42), Darren Waller, (13-134-0) and Austin Hooper (9-77-0) to all have double-digit points. 
• Tyreek Hill: Hill has a team-leading 14 targets from Moore, catching nine for 150 yards and a touchdown. Hill has yet to reach 100 yards receiving in a game this season, but has had 80, 74, and 76 yards in his three games since returning to the lineup. Minnesota boundary corners Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes have allowed the fifth and sixth-most in receptions in coverage with three touchdowns each.
• Adam Thielen: Expected back this week, Thielen has scored a touchdown in five of seven games this season as he leads the team with eight end zone targets. For all the production the Chiefs surrender defensively, they are actually strong against opposing wideouts, ranking seventh in points allowed per game (29.1). That’s partly due to them getting torched by backfields as they rank seventh in wide receiver targets faced per game (17.0), but are middle of the pack in catch rate (15th) and fantasy points allowed per target (16th) to the position. The Chiefs are third in the league against boundary wideouts, but rank 25th to slot receivers. Thielen moves inside for 31.2% of his routes, giving him a matchup edge.
• Stefon Diggs: Diggs has now gone over 100 yards in four of his past five games and has at least seven receptions for 140 yards in each of the past three weeks. The Vikings have seemingly found the balance of maximizing this passing game while still highlighting their run game, but we’ve still only had one week so far this season in which Diggs and Thielen were both top-24 scorers in the same week. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Chiefs RBs: The timeshare from this group remains muddy. Just as LeSean McCoy was distancing himself from the field for two weeks, he fumbled in the second half last week and then was pulled for Damien Williams, who turned seven carries into 30 yards and a touchdown. This group has produced just one top-30 scoring week over the past four games, which is hardly worth the headache against a Minnesota defense that is fourth in rushing points allowed per game (8.7) and 10th in receiving points allowed per game (10.1) to opposing backfields. 
• Sammy Watkins: Watkins hasn’t been a top-40 scorer in any game since Week 1 while averaging 42.4 receiving yards per game. If Mahomes returns, Watkins gains more FLEX appeal, but as of now is strictly a WR4 option. 
• Mecole Hardman: Hardman found the end zone for the second straight game, but with Watkins returning to the lineup, he ran just four pass routes total, playing behind Hill, Watkins, and Demarcus Robinson (23 routes) with the Chiefs wideout group completely active.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Matt Moore: Still proceeding as if Moore will start one more week and will turn things around if Patrick Mahomes gets cleared during the week. Moore turned in a solid 18.9 fantasy points in his first start since 2017, which was good for the QB12 on the week. Minnesota has allowed Carson Wentz (7.6 yards per attempt), Matthew Stafford (8.1), and Case Keenum (8.1 Y/A) to find some success in the air the past three weeks.