Colts vs Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Indianapolis	Rank	@	Pittsburgh	Rank
-1		Spread	1
22.25		Implied Total	21.25
22.6	16	Points/Gm	21.4	19
21.6	14	Points All./Gm	20.7	13
65.6	6	Plays/Gm	56.1	30
59.1	6	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.4	25
47.1%	5	Rush%	40.7%	17
52.9%	28	Pass%	59.3%	16
39.4%	13	Opp. Rush %	41.7%	21
60.6%	20	Opp. Pass %	58.3%	12

The Colts are the only team out of 14 teams with a winning record to have a point differential in the single digits.
Every Colts game has been decided by one score, the only team in the league to play all of their games within one score.
Opposing teams are averaging 9.7 possessions per game against the Colts, the second-fewest in the league behind the Chargers (9.5).
The Colts are 10th in the league in points per drive (2.18) while the Steelers are 20th (1.85).
The Steelers are 29th in the league in yards per pass play differential than their opponent (-3.5).
Pittsburgh has allowed a touchdown on 14% (6-of-43) of drives the past four games (fifth) after allowing a touchdown on 29.4% (10-of-34) of drives their first three games (24th).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Marlon Mack: Mack has been an RB2 in four of his past five games, but hasn’t been an RB1 in weekly scoring since Week 1. The Steelers rank fifth in the league in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (3.75), but Mack has volume in his corner with 32, 21, and 20 touches the past three weeks while the Colts have a 55.7% run rate away from home, the second-highest rate in the league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster’s yards per catch (14.8) and yards per target (9.6) are actually higher than they were a year ago, but the main issue for him is overall volume. Last week was the first time he went over eight targets in a game this season. He is averaging just 6.6 targets per game compared to 10.4 a year ago. That low volume has made him volatile, with three top-24 weeks in his five games without Ben Roethlisberger starting, with the other two weeks at WR65 and WR87. The Colts are 28th in points allowed per game (18.7) to opposing WR1 options.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Jacoby Brissett: We finally saw Brissett’s expected touchdown regression gain some footing a week ago and this could be another spot where the scoring is low. Brissett ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt (6.9) while ranking sixth in touchdown rate (6.1%). Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a passer to rank higher than QB16 since Week 2 while allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt over that span. Without Hilton in Week 4, Brissett completed a season-low 52.2% of his passes for just 5.8 yards per attempt.
Mason Rudolph: We’ve picked our spots with Rudolph. He has reached 16 fantasy points in two of four starts, with usable games against the Bengals and Dolphins and down weeks against the 49ers and Ravens. The highest a quarterback has finished against the Colts over their past four games is QB11 and that was Patrick Mahomes.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Jaylen Samuels: Samuels practiced in full last Thursday and Friday, but was held out on Monday, signaling that he’s close to returning. With both James Conner (shoulder) and Benny Snell (knee) sustaining injuries on Monday night, Samuels could be in line to carry the workload this week with only Trey Edmunds left on the depth chart. Samuels turned in three high-end RB2 scoring weeks a year ago with Conner out a year ago.
Diontae Johnson: Johnson has a 21-254-3 line on 29 targets since Week 3 compared to a 19-281-3 line on 30 targets from Smith-Schuster. The rub with Johnson is that he’s an all-or-nothing option that is running hot on long touchdown variance. Johnson’s three touchdowns this season have been 39, 43, and 45 yards, which account for 50% of his receiving yardage over the past five games. The Colts are mid-pack in splash plays allowed, ranking 17th in rate of completions to gain 20 or more yards (14.7%).
Zach Pascal/ Chester Rogers: With T.Y. Hilton out this week, both Pascal a Rogers will asked to do more alongside the return of Parris Campbell. Pascal has already taken a step forward, playing 92% of the snaps last week. The last time that Hilton was out in Week 4, Rogers had a season-high six targets, catching three for 48 yards and a touchdown. Rogers plays 88% of his snaps in the slot, which is a matchup advantage over Pascal. Pittsburgh is fourth in the league in points allowed per game to boundary wideouts, but 32nd in points allowed to slot option.
Colts TEs: We’re running into a consistent issue where both Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron cannibalize each other, which makes it incredibly tough to project when to use one of them in lineups. So far through seven games, Doyle and Ebron each have two top-12 scoring weeks while Doyle sits at 30 targets and Ebron 29. If you have to chase a touchdown, Ebron has three end zone targets on the season compared to one for Doyle. That may be the route to take as the Steelers are 25th in points allowed to opposing tight ends on the strength of four touchdowns allowed, but are 10th in yards per target allowed to the position (7.0).