Texans vs Jaguars Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday morning game in London on November 3, 2019 at 9:30 am ET.

Houston	Rank	@	Jacksonville	Rank
-2		Spread	2
24.5		Implied Total	22.5
26.5	9	Points/Gm	21.6	17
23.5	18	Points All./Gm	20.4	11
65.5	7	Plays/Gm	64.2	14
61.5	10	Opp. Plays/Gm	62	13
42.9%	11	Rush%	44.36%	9
57.1%	22	Pass%	55.64%	24
34.2%	3	Opp. Rush %	37.5%	8
65.9%	30	Opp. Pass %	62.50%	25

The teams have scored a combined 27, 23, and 25 points in the three meetings they’ve had with Deshaun Watson as the starting quarterback.
In those games, the Jaguars have scored a touchdown on 2-of-33 (6.1%) possessions while Houston has scored a touchdown on 5-of-32 (15.6%) drives.
Opponents have scored on 8-of-35 (22.9%) possessions against the Jaguars the past three weeks, the fifth-lowest rate the league over that span.
Jacksonville has a 14-to-1 passing to rushing touchdown ratio (93.3%). League average is 64.3% passing touchdown rate.
Gardner Minshew has a league-high 133.3 quarterback on deep throws (15-yards or further downfield), completing 22-of-40 (55%) of those attempts with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Just 15.4% of Minshew’s pass attempts are on those downfield targets, 26th in the league.
The Jaguars have converted 35.7% (10-of-28) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 30th in the league.
Opposing teams have converted 69.6% (16-of-23) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against Houston, the second-highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Gardner Minshew: Minshew has at least 16 fantasy points in seven of eight games this season with a QB15 finish (16.1 points) when these teams played in Week 2. With that floor already stable, Minshew has shown off a ceiling of late, with three top-10 scoring weeks over his past four games against the Panthers (21.2 points), Bengals (21.0), and Jets (23.9). Houston is 29th in passing points allowed per game (20.2) and have allowed at least three passing touchdowns in each of their past four games to Derek Carr, Jacoby Brissett, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan. To tack on, Houston also just lost J.J. Watt for the season.
D.J. Chark: Chark had a season-high 12 targets last week and still leads the team in deep targets (16) and end zone targets (eight) on the season. The rest of the team has nine end zone targets on the season. Houston has been most vulnerable to opposing wide receiver play, allowing a league-high 13 touchdowns to the position with multiple touchdowns to wideouts in each of the past four weeks.
Leonard Fournette: Fournette has just one touchdown on 198 touches this season, but has still maintained five consecutive top-12 scoring weeks in thanks to one of the league’s heaviest workloads. Fournette is second in touches per game (24.8) while averaging a career-high 7.7 receiving points per game. Christian McCaffrey is the only back to reach 70 rushing yards in a game against Houston since Week 1, but the Texans are 31st in receiving points allowed per game (14.8) to backfields.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has at least 12 targets and nine receptions in each of his past three games with back-to-back 100-yard games. The Jaguars haven’t been shadowing since the departure of Jalen Ramsey, while Hopkins has been versatile, running 40% of his routes at LWR, 23% at RWR, and 36% in the slot.
Deshaun Watson: Watson has thrown for just 139, 234, and 159 yards with just one touchdown pass in three career starts versus the Jaguars. Those Jacksonville secondaries had Ramsey as part of their unit trailing Hopkins, however. In five games with Ramsey, Jacksonville has allowed more just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, but have also faced Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, and Kyle Allen over that span.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Carlos Hyde: Hyde has yet to turn in a top-30 scoring week this season without a touchdown as he’s been a non-factor in the receiving game with six catches for 22 yards on the season. Jacksonville started the season off poorly against the run, but have allowed opposing backs to rush 46 times for 111 yards (2.4 YPC) over the past three weeks with zero rushing touchdowns.
Duke Johnson: Johnson has been a top-30 scorer in four of his past five games, but has been living off catching a touchdown in three of those games. Johnson has single-digit touches in six of the past seven weeks and last week’s game with four receptions was his first with more than two catches since Week 1. The Jaguars are 14th in receptions allowed per game (4.9) to backs.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Chris Conley: Conley had had eight (3-83) and seven targets (4-103-1) come his way the past two weeks. With Dede Westbrook dealing with neck and shoulder injuries, his status is up in the air. Houston not only is allowing the most touchdowns to opposing wideouts, but they also rank 28th in receptions (13.8) and 30th in yards (192.0) allowed per game to the position.
Kenny Stills: Stills was a major dud last week (3-22), but he was still on the field for 96% of the snaps. Stills runs 85% of his routes from the slot and RWR, where he’ll find D.J. Hayden and A.J. Bouye. Hayden is allowing 0.75 yards per coverage snap (14th of 117 qualifying corners) and Bouye 1.16 (55th), while neither have allowed a touchdown yet in coverage this season.
Darren Fells: Fells has been tough to nail down week-to-week. He has five or more catches in three games this season with two or fewer catches in his other five, but he is tied for the lead at the position now with five touchdown receptions. The Jaguars have allowed a TE1 week to Ryan Griffin (4-66-2) and a TE7 week to Jared Cook (3-37-1) over the past three weeks, but have also allowed just one tight end to have more than four receptions in a game this season.