The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
TennesseeRank@CarolinaRank
3.5Spread-3.5
18.75Implied Total22.25
18.526Points/Gm25.613
16.94Points All./Gm26.324
60.225Plays/Gm6415
63.920Opp. Plays/Gm68.731
43.6%10Rush%39.3%19
56.4%23Pass%60.7%14
38.9%12Opp. Rush %39.5%14
61.1%21Opp. Pass %60.5%19
  • The Panthers are averaging 5.4 yards per pass play over the past four weeks, 30th in the league.
  • 38.9% (7-of-18) of the Carolina offensive touchdowns this season have come from passing, the lowest rate in the league. League average has a 64.4% passing touchdown rate.
  • Christian McCaffrey averages 2.4 yards before contact per carry, the highest rate in the league for all players with 100 or more carries on the season.
  • Carolina is first in the league in rushing yards per play on first down (5.6 yards) and 32nd on rushing yards allowed per play on first down (5.4 yards).
  • Carolina is third in the league in expected points added via their pass defense (21.5) and 32nd in expected points added via their rushing defense (minus-22.4).
  • The Titans have scored on 9-of-20 (45%) of their drives over the past two weeks after scoring on 21.4% (15-of-70) through the first six games. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Christian McCaffrey: He’s been a top-8 scorer in every game but one and has been the RB8 (21.7 points) and RB6 (27.5) in back-to-back games against two of the league’s toughest matchups for opposing backs. The Titans have been solid versus backfields, ranking seventh in yards per carry allowed (3.81) to backs, but have struggled to defend the position through the air, ranking 27th in receiving points allowed per game (13.1) to the position. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Derrick Henry: Henry’s 19.9 touches per game rank ninth at the position, but since he has just 12.3 receiving points over the past seven weeks, he’s dependent on touchdowns to reach his fantasy ceiling. In his five games with a score, Henry has been the average RB13. In his three games without a touchdown, he’s been the average RB37 with no week higher than RB25. Relying on rushing production against the Panthers has been favorable as they are last in the league in rushing points allowed per game (19.4) to backfields and have allowed seven rushing touchdowns over their past three games.
  • D.J. Moore: Moore has been the average WR35 over Allen’s five starts, but has received 27 targets over the past three games. The Titans are at their best versus slot wideouts (ranking seventh), but has allowed production on the outside (20th). Moore runs 83% of his routes on the outside with 59% of his routes at LWR, where Malcolm Butler plays 80% of his snaps. Butler has allowed the 12th-most yardage in coverage this season.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Ryan Tannehill: He’s been the QB14 and QB10 the past two weeks, but last week he lived on touchdown deodorant while throwing for just 5.8 yards per pass attempt in a soft matchup at home. This week, the Titans go on the road to face a Carolina defense that ranks fourth in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.45) and sixth in passing points allowed per game (12.5). 
  • Kyle Allen: He’s averaged just 199.5 passing yards per game and 6.0 yards per pass attempt over the past four weeks and his lone top-12 scoring week came against the Cardinals. The Titans aren’t a pass defense to outright avoid, ranking 16th in passing points allowed per game (14.5), but Allen is still left in QB2 territory this week.
  • Greg Olsen: After a 6-75-2 line on seven targets in Allen’s first start, Olsen has caught 8-of-15 targets for 70 yards over the past four games. Olsen has lacked overall volume and quality targets as his 62.5% catchable target rate is now the lowest for qualifying tight ends on the season. The Titans have allowed the TE13 or higher in five of eight games so far based on allowing four touchdowns to the position, but have allowed more than four catches in a game to just Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Curtis Samuel: Allen’s vertical struggles have hampered Samuel as he has four or fewer receptions in each of his past four games played with one game higher than WR50 over that stretch. With Adoree Jackson sidelined last week, replacement LeShaun Sims had a rough outing, allowing five catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on seven targets (146.4 rating). If Jackson is out once again, Samuel runs 50% of his routes at RWR, where he’d draw Sims’s coverage.
  • Corey Davis/A.J. Brown: We found at least last week that Tannehill wasn’t the cure-all after all for giving this receiver group weekly stability, regardless of matchup. For as good the Panthers are against the pass, they do give up fantasy points to opposing wideouts because of the heavy volume they face to the position. Opposing teams are targeting their receivers 71.3% of the time versus Carolina (second highest) while the Panthers face the most targets (25.6) and allow the most receptions (15.9) to the position, but rank fourth in fantasy points allowed per target (1.51).
  • Jonnu Smith: With Delanie Walker’s status still a question mark, we could see Smith once again start for the Titans. Smith had a career-high 21.2% of the team targets last week. The matchup isn’t as much of a layup as last week’s game against the Bucs as the Panthers are 10th in points allowed per game to opposing tight ends, but are 28th in points allowed per target (2.02) to the position. 

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG