The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Washington Redskins vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
WashingtonRank@BuffaloRank
10Spread-10
16.5Implied Total23.5
12.430Points/Gm19.124
24.419Points All./Gm17.45
52.832Plays/Gm63.718
66.828Opp. Plays/Gm62.716
38.6%21Rush%41.9%13
61.4%12Pass%58.1%20
47.0%27Opp. Rush %41.2%20
53.0%6Opp. Pass %58.8%13
  • Washington has run 41 plays in back-to-back games, the fewest amount of offensive plays for an offense in a game this season.
  • They are the first team to run 41 or fewer offensive plays in back-to-back games since the 1970 merger.
  • Washington is fourth in the NFL in rushing rate (53.6%) over the past three weeks after 31.2% through five weeks (29th).
  • Buffalo has allowed nine rushing touchdowns to just five passing touchdowns this season. That 64.3% rushing touchdown rate is the highest in the league. League average outside of them is 36.5%.
  • The Bills lead the league in red zone touchdown conversion rate (70.6%), but rank 29th in the league in red zone attempts per game (2.4).
  • Washington ranks 31st in the league in red zone attempts per game (1.9).
  • Washington has scored on 12.2% of their red zone plays, ahead of only the Bengals (11.3%). League average is 20.6%.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Josh Allen: Allen has shown a great floor so far, scoring 16 or more points in six games, but just hasn’t gotten over that QB1 hump often, with just two top-12 scoring weeks. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games while Washington is 20th in passing points allowed per game (15.2) while allowing the two mobile passers they’ve faced in Dak Prescott (69 yards) and Daniel Jones (33 yards) to tack on production on the ground.
  • John Brown: Brown has been a stable commodity so far with at least 50 receiving yards in every game this season and at least five receptions in six of seven. We know the splash plays will inevitably come. Washington is middle of the pack against opposing WR1 options, ranking 16th in points allowed to those lead options per game (15.2).
  • Adrian Peterson: Peterson has 136, 81, and 103 yards from scrimmage on 25, 20, and 16 touches in three games since Callahan has promised to establish the run. Peterson was even the RB20 last week in negative game script against a strong defense last week. The Bills are excellent versus the pass, but opposing backs have scored 64.3% of the touchdowns against them, the highest rate in the league.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • WAS QB: Bill Callahan has stated that Case Keenum will start if he clears concussion protocol this week, but that remains in the balance. The extra days off may help his cause to suit up over Dwayne Haskins making his first career starts, but neither is an objectively good option this week in Buffalo. The Bills are third in the league in passing points allowed per game (9.8).
  • Terry McLaurin: If Haskins starts, we’re running completely away. If Keenum starts, then there’s still some pulse, but McLaurin will draw Tre’Davious White in coverage, who has allowed a 44.9 rating in his coverage this season (fifth) while not allowing a touchdown yet on the season.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Bills RBs: Devin Singletary out-snapped Frank Gore last week 42-18 last week, but game script once again made an impact. Singletary’s two highest snap counts have come in the two games that Buffalo has trailed the most with him active. With the Bills tied or leading the past two weeks, Gore has 13 touches to just one for Singletary, while Singletary has out-touched Gore 13-to-8 while the Bills have trailed. Positive game script should be in play here at home against a Washington defense that ranks 23rd in rushing points allowed per game (15.1) to opposing backfields.
  • Cole Beasley: He has just three receptions in each of his past three games, but has had at least 20% of the team targets in five of the seven games this season while finding the end zone in each of the past two games. Washington is middling to opposing slot wideouts, ranking 16th.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG