The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 22.75 | Implied Total | 29.25 | ||
| 28 | 5 | Points/Gm | 26 | 11 |
| 30.3 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 24.5 | 20 |
| 68 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 65 | 10 |
| 65.9 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 8 |
| 38.9% | 20 | Rush% | 48.3% | 4 |
| 61.1% | 13 | Pass% | 51.7% | 29 |
| 35.1% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 35.1% | 5 |
| 64.9% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 65.0% | 28 |
- Tampa Bay road games are averaging a combined 58.5 combined points, second-highest in the league behind Atlanta (60.8 points).
- Seattle is second in the league in red zone touchdown conversion rate at 67.7% (21-of-31) while also ranking fourth in red zone attempts per game (3.9).
- Russell Wilson leads the league in percentage of pass attempts to come from inside of the red zone (18.0%) and percentage of end zone pass attempts (13.2%).
- Wilson has been under pressure for 41.8% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league behind Daniel Jones (44.8%), but leads the league with a 112.5 passer rating under pressure.
- Wilson averages 8.7 yards per pass attempt under pressure, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of his is 6.1 yards per attempt.
- 90.4% of the rushing yards from Chris Carson have come from after contact, the highest rate for all running backs in the top-25 of overall rushing yards. The average of those backs is 68.2% of yardage gained after contact.
- Mike Evans leads the league with 69.0 fantasy points on deep targets this season, catching 11-of-22 targets for 400 yards and three touchdowns.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Russell Wilson: The risk with Wilson is always about overall volume. Last week that ruined us from Wilson reaching his ceiling in a great matchup despite completing 70% of his passes for 9.1 yards per pass attempt because he threw only 20 passes. We’re in a similar spot here matchup-wise as Tampa Bay is 26th in passing points allowed per game (19.2). The Bucs have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to all of Ryan Tannehill (19.4), Kyle Allen (17.4), Teddy Bridgewater (27.3), Jared Goff (20.7), and Daniel Jones (34.2) over the past five weeks.
- Tyler Lockett: Lockett leads all wide receivers in catchable target rate (90.6%) to go along with a 12.4 average depth of target. That efficiency has kept his floor him despite maintaining low volume. Lockett is 36th in targets (26) among wideouts over the past five weeks, but 14th in fantasy points. Tampa Bay is 29th in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 option (19.0).
- Mike Evans: Evans has been a top-10 scorer in four of his past five games while Seattle has allowed over 100 yards receiving to three of the past four lead wide receivers they’ve faced, with the only exception being Miles Boykin (2-55) over that stretch.
- Chris Godwin: We love this passing game because it’s high volume (Winston is eighth in pass attempts per game) and the ball only goes to two players. Evans leads the team with 67 targets while Godwin has 63. The next closest player is Dare Ogunbowale at 24 targets. Godwin is running 65% of his routes from the slot this season. Seahawks primary slot corner Jamar Taylor is allowing 1.81 yards per coverage snap, the fourth-highest among slot corners.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Jameis Winston: He has 17 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games with 300 or more passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in four of those games. The turnovers are always a worry, but Seattle has allowed 16 or more fantasy points to six consecutive passers in Matt Schaub (20.4), Lamar Jackson (23.3), Baker Mayfield (19.5), Jared Goff (17.9), Kyler Murray (16.3), and Teddy Bridgewater (16.3).
- Chris Carson: Carson has at least 20 touches in each of his past five games, but we’ve seen his receiving use slip a bit recently as he has single-digit receiving yardage in three of his past four games. Carson will need to catch some passes here as Tampa Bay is allowing just 8.1 rushing points per game (second).
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Tampa Bay RBs: This backfield hasn’t produced a top-30 scorer since Week 4. Over the past three weeks, Peyton Barber has 28 touches for 87 yards while Ronald Jones has 27 touches for 118 yards. Jones has now out-gained Barber 423-to-295 yards on the season, but Barber is still splitting work right down the middle from a backfield that is 23rd in yards from scrimmage per game collectively (121.1 yards).
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is averaging just 2.9 receptions per game with a season-high of four catches in a game, but he leads the league in end zone targets (12) while this is a matchup to circle for potential points and passing volume.
- Cameron Brate: Brate posted just three catches for 32 yards a week ago with O.J. Howard sidelined, but did set season-highs in snap rate (66.3%), routes (37) and targets (six). Brate has now played nine games since 2017 with Howard sidelined and combined to catch 22 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Seattle has struggled to defend tight ends so over the front half of the season, ranking 29th in points allowed per game (15.9) to the position.
More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG
