The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football game on November 3, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.
New EnglandRank@BaltimoreRank
-3.5Spread3.5
24Implied Total20.5
31.21Points/Gm30.62
7.61Points All./Gm22.316
70.52Plays/Gm70.91
56.52Opp. Plays/Gm573
41.8%14Rush%52.0%3
58.2%19Pass%48.0%30
32.7%1Opp. Rush %34.1%2
67.3%32Opp. Pass %65.9%31
  • New England is averaging 14.0 more offensive plays than their opponents, first in the league.
  • Baltimore is averaging 13.9 more offensive plays per game than their opponents, second in the league.
  • The Patriots average 12.5 red zone plays per game, the most in the league.
  • Baltimore averages 12.0 red zone plays per game, second in the league.
  • The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on just 4.2% (1-of-24) of their opponent’s red zone plays, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 20.2%.
  • New England is the first team to allow 14 or fewer points in eight consecutive games to open a season since the Falcons in 1977.
  • Baltimore is the only team in the league to have scored on over half of their offensive possessions (54.3%) this season. 
  • Opponents have scored on just 8-of-105 (7.6%) of their possessions versus the Patriots, the lowest rate in the league.
  • New England is averaging 125.9 more passing yards per game than their opponents, the largest differential in the league. The next closest team (Kansas City) is at plus-77.5 passing yards per game.
  • The Ravens are averaging 119.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponents, the largest differential in the league. The next highest team (49ers) is plus-85.4 rushing yards per game.
  • The Ravens are first in the league in expected points added via their rushing offense (49.0) while the Patriots are 32nd (minus-38.5).
  • Tom Brady has a 76.2% completion rate from a clean pocket this season (sixth), but a 32.9% rate when under pressure (33rd). That 43.3% drop in completion rate under pressure is the largest difference in the league.
  • Brady has been under pressure for just 29.5% of his dropbacks, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
  • Opposing teams have attempted a league-high 26.4% of their passes on throws 15-yards or further downfield versus the Patriots.
  • Those passers have completed 13-of-72 (18.1%) of those passes for two touchdowns and nine interceptions (16.8 rating).
  • Lamar Jackson has completed 15-of-46 (32.6%) of those downfield pass attempts, which ranks 28th of 33 passers with 20 or more of those pass attempts.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been a top-10 scorer in six games this season while the highest a quarterback has finished against New England this season has been QB23. Jackson has faced just two defenses that weren’t in the bottom-10 in pressure rate when he faced them (CLE and PIT) while New England ranks fifth right now in pressure rate (28.5%). Jackson is a different kind of producer than all of these options as he’s been the QB2 and the QB6 the past two games without a passing touchdown and completing 30 total passes because he’s had 21.2 and 17.6 rushing points in those games. Everyone is waiting to see how Bill Belichick approaches handling Jackson and his running ability. Greg Roman and mobile quarterbacks are no stranger to the Patriots. In four starts against New England under Roman, Tyrod Taylor had 25.9, 9.4, 16.6, and 18.1 fantasy points with 6.0 rushing points per game. In 2012 under Roman, Colin Kaepernick had 25.6 points with 28 yards rushing. Those defenses weren’t the 2019 version of the Pats defense, but neither of those guys possesses the rushing ability of Jackson, which creates his fantasy floor. Jackson is the one Raven I would still feel solid about starting because of that rushing ability being weighted for fantasy scoring.
  • Tom Brady: Brady has 18 or more fantasy points in six of eight games so far, only slowed down by the Jets and Bills. The way to disrupt Brady is with pressure and both the Jets (third) and Bills (ninth) rank top-10 in the league in blitz rate while the Ravens rank first in blitz rate at 48.0%. But Baltimore isn’t fully getting home on the blitz as they rank 14th in overall pressure rate (24.0%). The Ravens are ninth in the league in passing points allowed per game (13.9) and are expected to have Jimmy Smith back this week to go with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Brandon Carr, and Earl Thomas all together for the first time this season.
  • Mark Andrews: Andrews is the only tight end in the league to have at least seven targets in every game played this season. Given the landscape of the position, it’s tough to run from that kind of volume regardless of matchup. The Patriots have allowed the fewest points per game to opposing tight ends (5.7), but also the highest scoring tight end they have faced so far on the season has been Dawson Knox
  • Julian Edelman: Edelman is the lone wide receiver to count on for the Patriots. He has been a top-24 scorer in each of his past four games with three top-10 scoring weeks while collecting 28.7% of the team targets. The Ravens have ranked 20th on the season in points allowed to opposing slot wideouts, but should be expected to shake things up with a healthy secondary for the first time.
  • James White: If you need White to get you 11 PPR points, he’ll get you there. If you need White to get your 14 PPR points, then you’ll be short. White has scored 11.9-13.8 points in all seven games this season. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Mark Ingram: Ingram has run for 44, 52, and 46 yards over his past three games. So much of his production is contingent on scoring a touchdown as he’s had two or fewer receptions in every game but one. In games in which he’s failed to score a touchdown, Ingram has been the RB30, RB34, and RB39. Expecting a touchdown is hard to count on here as New England hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a back all season so far but they have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to backs over the past four weeks with games of 20-131 to Nick Chubb, 15-70 to Le’Veon Bell, and 17-109 to Frank Gore rushing over that span.
  • Sony Michel: Michel has managed 108 total yards the past two weeks and has rushed for more than 4.0 yards in a game just once on the season. He remains viable for touchdown production because New England leads the league in plays from inside of the 5-yard line (28) this season but like Ingram, Michel has been the average RB46 in his games without a touchdown this season. Baltimore has allowed opposing backfields to rush for 153 yards on 51 carries the past three weeks after being shredded for 192 yards on the ground by the Browns in Week 4.
  • Marquise Brown: Brown hasn’t played since Week 5 due to an ankle injury, but is expected to play this Sunday night. Brown has had more than four receptions in just one game this season but does offer versatility to dodge being shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. Brown has run 49% of his routes at RWR, 38% from the slot, and 13% from LWR. The downside is there is no escape from a negative matchup even avoiding Gilmore. Jason McCourty has allowed just a 61.4 rating on targets in his coverage (ninth) while Jonathan Jones has allowed an 81.9 rating (22nd). 
  • Non-Edelman NE WRs: Mohamed Sanu played 37 snaps (53.6%) and ran 26 pass routes in his New England debut, catching 2-of-5 targets for 23 yards. Phillip Dorsett has a touchdown in three of his six games this season, but has had fewer than 50 yards receiving in four of his past five games played. Without a touchdown, it’s hard to elevate either of these ancillary options past throwing a dart at a FLEX spot.
  • Ben Watson: Watson has managed just four catches for 44 yards over the past two weeks. The Ravens are 26th in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends (8.7 yards), but Watson doesn’t have the requisite volume to pursue if streaming the position. 

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG