Browns vs Ravens: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

• Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback ever to have at least 15 fantasy points in each of his first 10 career starts.
• Jackson ranks first in fantasy points per drive among quarterbacks at 3.17. 
• Jackson leads the league in attempt rate on throws 15-yards or further downfield (32% of pass attempts), but ranks 28th in completion rate (34.4%) on those pass attempts.
• 95.4% of Mark Ingram’s carries have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
• The Ravens have scored on 67.9% (19-of-28) of their possessions, the highest rate in the league through three weeks.
• The Browns have scored on just 27% (10-of-37) of their possessions through three weeks, ahead of only the Dolphins (11.4%) and Jets (5.1%).
• Baker Mayfield has been sacked on 23.9% of his pressured drop backs this season (sixth-highest) after 16.2% in 2018 (27th).
• Mayfield is 3-of-14 (21.4%) passing in the red zone, ahead of only Cam Newton (16.7%) for quarterbacks with more than five red zone pass attempts.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Lamar Jackson: We haven’t seen a player begin their career with as stable of a fantasy floor as Jackson. He also possesses a unique upside to go with that floor. Even in his worst game of the season last week, he put up 21.3 points. Jackson was the QB5 in this matchup a year ago.  

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Mark Ingram: He’s tied for the league lead in rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line and already has picked up two games with multiple rushing scores through three games. That scoring upside is always present, but the Browns have started the season strong against the run, ranking sixth in rushing points allowed (8.9 per game)
• Nick Chubb: He played 97.2% of the snaps last week and is one of just three backs to have 20 or more touches in every game this season. Baltimore opened up the season shutting down the already anemic Miami and Arizona running games, but allowed 124 rushing yards on 21 carries to Kansas City backs a week ago to go along 73 receiving yards on eight catches. 
• Marquise Brown: His 2-49 game last week highlighted how much variance he can have when the long plays aren’t connecting, but you have to take those on for the opportunities he’s receiving. Brown has received 19.2%, 35.1%, and 20.9% of the team targets. He is third in the NFL in air yards (466) while his 17.3-yard average depth of target ranks second in the league among receivers with 20 or more targets to start the season. 
• Mark Andrews: Like Brown, Andrews let down a week ago with a 3-15 final line, but he still commanded seven targets 
• Odell Beckham: He has one huge game and two floor games through three weeks as Mayfield and this offense has yet to click in the passing game. But Beckham still has nine or more targets and six or more receptions in every game this season. Baltimore has given up 14 pass plays of 20-plus yardage (27th). 
• Jarvis Landry: His highest scoring week of the season has been good for WR44. But his 298 air yards trail Odell Beckham by just 10 on the season. With the loss of David Njoku, Landry also received a season-high 25% of the team targets last week. I still believe Landry is worth a look as a WR3 option given the Ravens have allowed multiple top-36 scoring wideouts in each of the past two weeks. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is averaging 0.92 fantasy points per possession, which ranks 32nd among all quarterbacks with double-digit drives on the season. He’s opened the season as the QB29, QB18, and QB28 as this offense has yet to find any rhythm whatsoever. Mayfield won’t crack QB1 status based on his play to date, but Baltimore isn’t quite the boogeyman defending the pass as their past reputation suggests. They’ve allowed 349 passing yards to Kyler Murray in Week 2 and 374 passing yards a week ago to Patrick Mahomes outside of a beatdown to the Dolphins in Week 1.