Chiefs vs Lions: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

• The Chiefs have scored three or more touchdowns in 12 consecutive road games, trailing only the 49ers’ 14-game streak from 1984-85.
• Patrick Mahomes has 30.4 fantasy points on throws 15-yards or further downfield, the most in the league. The next highest passer (Dak Prescott) has 17.5 passing points on those throws.
• The Chiefs have produced a play of 20-plus yards once every 9.1 offensive plays, the highest rate in the league. The league average outside of them is once every 17.1 offensive plays.
• Kansas City has outscored their opponents 57-6 in the second quarter this season. That plus-51 scoring mark is the largest point differential for any team in any quarter through three weeks.
• The Chiefs rank 31st in defensive stuff rate (8.9%) on opponent rushing attempts while the Lions rank 30th (11.5%).
• Kerryon Johnson has faced eight or more defenders in the box on 45.8% percent of his carries, trailing only Frank Gore (54.6%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Patrick Mahomes: He had 13 touchdowns at this point last season and only has 10 this season. Regression has set in. Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdown passes in seven consecutive road games, the longest streak in NFL history.
• Travis Kelce: Kelce has double-digit PPR points now in 18 consecutive games dating back to last season. He’s had 88, 107, and 89 yards through three games, but has just one touchdown. If he keeps posting this type of yardage, those scores will come playing alongside Mahomes.
• Sammy Watkins: He’s been the odd-man-out the past two weeks in terms of fantasy scoring, but the opportunities have still been there with 13 and eight targets while Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have combined for 12 and nine targets in those games. Even with Darius Slay, the Lions have been giving it up to opposing lead receivers, allowing strong games to Larry Fitzgerald (8-113-1), Keenan Allen (8-98), and Nelson Agholor (8-50-2). The common theme with those option is that they play in the slot, where Watkins has run 71% of his routes the past two weeks. 
• Kerryon Johnson: The Lions need to get more creative with his usage and incorporate him more into the passing game (six targets on the season). But Johnson played a season-high 75% of the snaps last week after the release of C.J. Anderson and had a season-high 21 touches in an objectively terrible matchup on the road. Now, he’s at home in a potentially high-scoring game against a run defense that is allowing a league-high 6.2 yards per carry to opposing backfields.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Kenny Golladay: He was one of the most disappointing players last week, turning in a 2-17 line in a great matchup, but he did still have 25% of the team targets (eight total), giving him eight or more targets in every game this season. The Chiefs have faired well against opposing lead wideouts, holding Marquise Brown (2-49) and Tyrell Williams (5-46-1) to modest yardage the past two weeks. 
• Demarcus Robinson/Mecole Hardman: As long as Mahomes is this dialed in, every Kansas City pass-catcher is worth starting, even if Robinson and Hardman need to hit splash plays on marginal target opportunities since Mahomes has been so steady at delivering those plays. 
• Marvin Jones: After a slow Week 1, Jones has 20% and 28.1% of the team targets over the past two weeks. In a game in which we’ll chase the opposing offense forced to match the Chiefs on the scoreboard, Jones is in play once again as a WR3 option.
• Chiefs RBs:  LeSean McCoy reaggravated his ankle injury in the game on Sunday after having 11 touches for 80 yards and two touchdowns, but put in full practices during the week. In that game Sunday, though, we got the reveal that Darrel Williams is the next man up over Darwin Thompson. Williams played 37 snaps compared to five for Thompson and Williams turned those snaps into 14 touches for 109 yards.  With Damien Williams missing another week with a knee contusion, McCoy is a RB2 option with Williams as a spot FLEX option.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Matthew Stafford: He’s progressively depreciated over the past three weeks for fantasy, but we also circle quarterbacks having fantasy appeal facing the Chiefs, especially when they’re on the road. Since the start of last season, opposing passers at home versus Kansas City have averaged 23.8 fantasy points and 327.5 passing yards per game.
• T.J. Hockenson: His Week 1 could prove to be an outlier as he has just two receptions for eight yards the past two weeks on just seven targets. Hockenson has run a route on just 46.5% of his snaps the past two weeks after 61.7% in Week 1. That said, he’s still a touchdown-or-bust option worth exploring if dire at the position since he had two end zone targets a week ago. The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions (26) in the league to opposing tight ends.