Raiders vs Colts: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Oakland Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game on September 29, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Oakland	Rank	@	Indianapolis	Rank
7		Spread	-7
19		Implied Total	26
16	29	Points/Gm	23.3	12
26	23	Points All./Gm	23.7	20
57.3	27	Plays/Gm	63	18
61.3	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	56.3	4
39.0%	16	Rush%	48.2%	5
61.1%	17	Pass%	51.9%	28
45.1%	23	Opp. Rush %	38.5%	16
54.9%	10	Opp. Pass %	61.5%	17

Oakland has lost and failed to cover in six consecutive road games with an early kickoff, losing all six by eight or more points.
The Raiders have allowed 41.6 yards per possession (29th) while the Colts are allowing 41.5 yards per possession (28th).
36.9% of the rushing plays against the Colts have resulted in a first down, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 23%.
The Raiders have allowed a gain of 20-plus on 11.4% of their opponent plays, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 6.4%.
Jacoby Brissett leads the league in red zone passing touchdowns (seven) and touchdown passes inside of the 10 and 5-yard lines (four).
Darren Waller has accounted for 25.5% of the Oakland fantasy points for skill players, the highest rate for any tight end in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Marlon Mack: He played 44 snaps (62% of the team total) with 18 touches while there were questions on his availability entering the game. Now he gets another game as a large home favorite against an Oakland defense that ranks 28th in touches per game (29.7) faced to opposing backfields and 22nd in yards per carry allowed to backs (4.48 yards).
Darren Waller: He’s been a top-eight scorer in each of the three weeks and already has two games with over 30% of the Oakland targets. Indianapolis has opened up the season 26th in fantasy points per target (2.09) to opposing tight ends.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Tyrell Williams: He’s had just 46 and 29 yards over the past two weeks, but still has a touchdown in every game this season. The Colts were one of the top defenses to avoid for WR1 options last season, but have already allowed huge games to Keenan Allen (8-123-1) and Julio Jones (8-128-1). Williams isn’t in that class of lead wideouts, but is still in a better spot than he was a week ago in terms of matchup.
Josh Jacobs: Dealing with an ankle injury and an illness during last week, Jacobs played just 25 snaps (42.4%) and had just 10 touches. After 24 touches in Week 1, Jacobs now has 24 over the past two weeks. As a road dog with limited passing game work through three weeks (three targets), this would be a run-away spot, but the Colts run defense has been so poor to start the season that the lights are still are on for Jacobs if his usage bounces back. Indianapolis has opened the year 20th in rushing points allowed (13.9) and have allowed 5.42 yards per carry to opposing backs (31st).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Derek Carr: Although the Colts are not a team to run away from and Carr should be able to dink and dunk his way here — the Colts rank 31st in completion rate allowed (76%) and 24th in passing points allowed (18.6 per game) — Carr is still tough to elevate over only being a 2QB option given the expected pace of play and being on the road. Carr has been the QB20 or lower in all three weeks.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has at least 16 fantasy points in every game this season and Oakland is an objectively strong matchup, ranking 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.62). But the potential absence of T.Y. Hilton takes away a major asset. In the second half last week without Hilton, Brissett was 7-of-10 for 92 yards.
Colts Pass Catchers: With Hilton looking more doubtful at this stage early in the week, we’re going to initially approach things under the light that he will not be available Sunday. Hilton has 25 targets on the season, with Eric Ebron next in line all the way down at 11. This passing game is very likely to be a sum of parts than have a lead option between Ebron, Parris Campbell, Deon Cain, and Zach Pascal. Brissett attempted 10 passes last week with Hilton out and no Colts had more than two of those looks. If you have to play a wideout here, Cain has run the most pass routes by a good margin. I would suggest Cain as the deep play with Ebron and Jack Doyle as mid-TE2 options. Oakland has had some hiccups defending the tight end the past two weeks, allowing 7-107-1 to Travis Kelce in Week 2 and then 4-71 to Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph last weekend.