The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on September 29, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
New EnglandRank@BuffaloRank
-7Spread7
24.75Implied Total17.75
35.32Points/Gm2217
5.71Points All./Gm15.75
68.35Plays/Gm67.76
56.33Opp. Plays/Gm6315
44.4%9Rush%46.8%6
55.6%24Pass%53.2%27
28.4%1Opp. Rush %31.8%6
71.6%32Opp. Pass %68.3%27
  • The Patriots are the only team in the league that has yet to run an offensive play while trailing to begin the season.
  • New England is the first team in NFL history to not allow an offensive touchdown through Weeks 1-3 of a season.
  • Opponents have scored on just 1-of-39 possessions (2.6%) against New England, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Opponents have scored on just 6-of-37 possessions (16.2%) against Buffalo, the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • Opposing passers have completed just 3-of-24 passes (12.5%) for 86 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions (2.4 quarterback rating) on throws 15-yards or further downfield versus New England through three weeks.
  • The Patriots are allowing a league-low 4.6 yards per pass play. Buffalo is allowing 5.2 yards per pass play (third).
  • The New England defense has allowed a play of 20-plus yards just once every 28.2 snaps, second to the Rams (once every 36.8 plays). The Bills defense ranks third at once every 27 plays.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Julian Edelman: Expected to be good to go after leaving last week’s game with a chest injury, Edelman has a good track record against Buffalo and plays the receiver position that has given the Bills the most problems. Edelman was WR12 (9-104-0) and WR13 (6-70-1) in the meetings between these teams a year ago while Buffalo has allowed Jamison Crowder (14-99) and Tyler Boyd (6-67) to have reception-based production from the slot. 
  • James White: This game sets up well for White to finally be needed. Through two blowouts and missing last week, White has had just 15 total touches on the season. In two games against the Bills last season, White caught 12-of-17 targets for 92 yards. Buffalo has also come out this season and struggled to defend backs out of the backfield, allowing 11.7 receiving points per game to backfields (23rd) and receiving touchdowns to both Le’Veon Bell and Joe Mixon. White and Rex Burkhead should be the favorites to lead the Patriots backfield in snaps while playing in neutral game script.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Tom Brady: He’s started the season with three top-12 scoring weeks after just six all of 2018. Still, this is a week where I won’t have Brady in my top-12 on the road against a strong pass defense. Buffalo has allowed just three quarterbacks to finish higher than QB15 since the start of last season, including Brady twice a year ago when he was the QB20 and the QB30, throwing just one touchdown and averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
  • Josh Allen: He’s taken a step forward in accuracy — ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate at 81.3% — but this is a major test compared to the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Allen was the QB22 in his lone matchup with the Patriots as a rookie, completing just 48.8% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.
  • Josh Gordon: After nine targets through two weeks, Gordon is coming off a season-high 11 targets last week. This week, he runs into a tough matchup with Tre’Davious White. Gordon managed to catch 4-of-6 targets for 42 yards in this spot a year ago in a game where he played 85% of the team snaps.
  • John Brown: He also runs into a very tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore on the outside. The Patriots have limited lead wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-78), DeVante Parker (0-0), and Robby Anderson (3-11) to start the season.
  • Bills RBs: The Patriots have allowed just 100 yards rushing on 43 attempts (2.33 YPC) to opposing backs, limiting James Conner (10.5 points) and Le’Veon Bell (10.3) along the way. 
  • Sony Michel: He’s always a candidate for a touchdown playing in this offense, but finding the paint hasn’t helped his fantasy lines much so far as he’s been the RB22 and RB41 the past two weeks. Outside of his 21 carry/85-yard game versus the Dolphins, Michel has 24 carries for 25 yards in his two other games. With James Develin on injured reserve, the Patriots are adapting by playing more 11 personnel. Michel played a season-low 17 snaps last week (22.1%).
  • Dawson Knox: It’s hard to chase his 3-67-1 breakout when it came on just four targets. That 11.1% target share was even lower than his Week 2 13.3% share.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Phillip Dorsett: With Gordon expected to occupy White, Dorsett will work primarily against Levi Wallace. The Bills have allowed secondary perimeter wideouts Auden Tate (6-88) and T.J. Jones (3-38-1) to have some success over the past two weeks while Dorsett has scored a touchdown in five of his past seven games.
  • Cole Beasley: It’s hard to find a positive matchup for the Bills offense here, but the wideout with the least of bad matchups is Beasley versus Jonathan Jones. Beasley has 24% of the team targets in two of the three games to start, with top-40 scoring weeks in each of the past two.

More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PHI at GB | TEN at ATL | KC at DET | OAK at IND | LAC at MIA | WAS at NYG | NE at BUF | CLE at BAL | CAR at HOU | TB at LAR | SEA at ARI | MIN at CHI | JAX at DEN | DAL at NO | CIN at PIT