Eagles vs Packers: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

• The Packers have had the lead for 83.7% of their offensive snaps, trailing only the Patriots (85.9%) through three weeks.
• Green Bay has allowed opponents to score on 18.4% of their drives (third in the league).  They were at 39.9% in 2018 (23rd).
• The Eagles are last in the NFL in first down rate on first or second down (15.9%). League average outside of them is 26.1%.
• The Packers rank fourth in first down rate allowed on first and second down defensively at 21.2%.
• The Eagles are allowing just 2.9 yards per rushing play, second to only New England (2.3 yards).
• 83.8% of the yardage allowed by the Eagles has been through passing, the highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Davante Adams: He’s been the WR50 or lower in two of the first three games after his lowest weekly finish was WR28 in 2018. The schedule has been tough, but things open here against an Eagles secondary that we’ve consistently circled over the past few seasons for WR play. Philadelphia limited Kenny Golladay (2-17) last week, but allowed big games to WR1 options in Terry McLaurin (5-125-1) and Julio Jones (5-106-2) to start the season. 
• Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is 21st in quarterback scoring through three weeks against the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos. This is his lightest opponent to date. The Eagles rank 25th in passing points allowed per game (19.4) through three weeks and force teams to throw given their strong run defense. To make matters worse for the Eagles, they enter Week 3 31st in sack rate (1.7%). Look for Rodgers to have his first top-12 week of the season and the first since Week 1 I’ll have him there in rankings. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Carson Wentz: He’s averaged just 5.4 and 7.2 yards per attempt working with a skeleton crew at wide receiver the past two weeks, but Wentz has still been a top-12 scorer in all three games this season. The Packers are second in the league in passing points allowed (7.6 per game) and Wentz is a road dog, but he still carries lower-end QB1 expectations.
• Zach Ertz: He’s yet to score a touchdown, but still is tied for the league-lead in targets at his position (30) while the Eagles are still set up to be limited at the wide receiver position on a short week. The Packers have allowed just 5.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends through three weeks, which ranks fifth. 
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s had at least six targets in each game and is coming off 10 targets (6-99-1) in Week 3. Philadelphia has allowed strong games to secondary wideouts in Calvin Ridley (8-105-1) and Marvin Jones (6-101-1) who share similar vertical qualities with MVS. 61.2% of the fantasy points allowed by the Eagles have gone to opposing wide receivers, 30th in the league.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Aaron Jones: He’s dealing with a shoulder injury on a short week, dealing with a tough matchup, and head coach Matt LaFleur held true to his work last week of getting Jamaal Williams involved more in the rushing game. After playing 59.4% and 58.1% of the team snaps in Weeks 1-2, Jones played just 38.6% of the snaps in Week 3.
• Jimmy Graham: He’s had just three total targets the past weeks with zero receptions after having just 30 yards in Week 1. At best, you’re chasing a touchdown only. 
• Eagles WRs: With Alshon Jeffery returning to the lineup this week, the Eagles are nearly back to full strength. Mack Hollins has been the better player between and J.J. Arcega Whiteside over the past two weeks, so he could still be the third option, but Jeffery’s return makes it hard to look that deeply into the depth chart. Nelson Agholor has had 22.9% and 33.3% of the team targets over the past two weeks serving as the featured wide receiver, but moves back into FLEX territory with Jeffery returning to the lineup. The Packers are allowing a league-low 46.2% of targets to wide receivers be completed through three weeks and rank fifth in yardage allowed per game (137.0) to opposing wideouts.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Miles Sanders: Sanders played a season-low 34.2% of snaps in Week 3, but received a season-high 65.4% usage rate (target or touch) on his snaps. His touches have now risen in each game this season. However, the team worked in Jordan Howard near the goal line and he converted his opportunity there for a touchdown. 54.1% of the skill position fantasy points allowed by the Packers have gone to opposing running backs, the highest rate in the league and they have allowed the most receptions to opposing backfields (26).