Vikings vs Bears: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game on September 29, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.

Minnesota	Rank	@	Chicago	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
17.75		Implied Total	20.25
26	7	Points/Gm	16.7	26
15.7	6	Points All./Gm	13	3
56	30	Plays/Gm	59.7	23
64.7	21	Opp. Plays/Gm	67	26
61.3%	1	Rush%	38.0%	19
38.7%	32	Pass%	62.0%	14
36.1%	10	Opp. Rush %	33.3%	8
63.9%	23	Opp. Pass %	66.7%	25

Dalvin Cook is averaging 2.49 yards before contact per carry, the most of all 21 running backs with 40 or more carries on the season.
Cook is the first Minnesota running back to rush for 100 or more yards in each of the first three weeks of a season in franchise history.
The Bears are one of four teams yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season and have allowed a league-low five rushing touchdowns since the start of the last season.
Kirk Cousins has been under pressure on 52.2% of his drop backs, the highest rate in the league.
Cousins has taken a sack on just 5.6% of his pressured drop backs, the lowest rate in the league.
The Bears have scored a touchdown on just 12.5% (4-of-32) of their possessions, 30th in the league.
Chicago has allowed a touchdown on just 12.5% (4-of-32) of their opponent’s possessions, fourth in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Dalvin Cook: He’s been sensational to start, but has faced three of the softer rushing opponents to open the season to help his cause. Chicago is anything but a soft matchup for running backs, entering Week 3 fourth in points allowed to backfields after ranking first in 2018. In two games against Chicago a year ago, Cook had 12 touches for 10 yards (RB50) and 15 touches for 60 yards (RB32) with the latter coming under Kevin Stefanski in a 24-10 loss.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Mitchell Trubisky: As highlighted last week, we target Trubisky in soft matchups only. In four career games against a Mike Zimmer-led defense, Trubisky has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game with 178 or fewer passing yards in all four games.
Kirk Cousins: He’s been the QB22 or lower in all three starts, including two great matchups. Cousins threw for 394 yards (4.9 yards per pass attempt) with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the two meetings between these teams a year ago.
Adam Thielen: He’s the more reliable of the Minnesota pass catchers as he has at least 12.5 points in each of the three games despite ranking 53rd among all wide receivers in overall targets (17). Thielen posted lines of 7-66-0 and 3-38-0 in the meetings between these teams a year ago.
Allen Robinson: His target shares (28.9%, 25.9%, and 22.6%) have been strong, but his overall lines have produced just one game higher than WR40 as Robinson’s volume is still tethered to Trubisky. We’re willing to take that on in favorable matchups, but this is not one of them for Robinson or his quarterback. In his lone game versus the Vikings in 2018, Robinson caught 3-of-7 targets for 39 yards.
Stefon Diggs: He’s been the WR73, WR51, and WR78 through three games with a total line of six catches for 101 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets. Diggs did have two strong games versus the Bears ago, with 13-126-1 on 18 targets and 8-47-1 on 10 targets and we should expect the Vikings to have to throw more here than they have in their two wins, but it’s hard to objectively set starting-caliber expectations for Diggs here.
David Montgomery: His snap rate (38.4%, 44.3%, and 66.7%) and yards from scrimmage (45, 68, and 81 yards) have risen in each game, but his usage has been all over the place. In Week 3, the Bears were up 28-3 with Cordarrelle Patterson having as many rushing attempts as Montgomery until they used him to salt away the fourth quarter. The Vikings have opened the season 10th in points allowed to opposing backfields.
Kyle Rudolph: He has just four catches for 20 yards on the season and has now been a top-12 scoring tight end just twice over his past 15 games played. Irv Smith also got extended playing time last week, running 11 pass routes compared to 16 for Rudolph.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Tarik Cohen: With Taylor Gabriel inactive, Cohen could be part of the passing game, but Cohen has managed just 98 yards on 20 touches with just six touches in each of the past two weeks. In two games versus the Vikings a year ago, Cohen had 17 touches for 82 yards (five catches for 31 yards) and a touchdown.
Trey Burton: His snaps went from 42.6% to 60.6% in his second game back from injury, but once again produced nearly no yardage (20 yards on four catches). Burton managed just six catches for 42 yards in two games versus the Vikings in 2018, but Minnesota has allowed 23 receptions (30th) to opposing tight ends so far this season and Gabriel’s absence could have a trickle-down to Burton.

More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: