Seahawks vs Cardinals: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

• Russell Wilson has used play-action on just 12.6% of his dropbacks through three weeks (33rd) after he used play-action on 30.8% of his dropbacks in 2018 (sixth).
• Arizona is allowing 463 yards per game to opposing skill players, 30th in the league and ahead of only the Giants (474) and Dolphins (504.3).
• Seattle has converted a league-high 88.9% (8-of-9) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. 
• Arizona has converted just 4-of-11 (36.4%) of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns, 30th in the league.
• Kyler Murray has been sacked on 33.3% of his pressured dropbacks, trailing only Marcus Mariota (39.5%) through three weeks.
• Murray has the most pass attempts (137) and second-most completions (84) for any quarterback over his first three career starts, but ranks 18th in passing yards (830) and 55th in yards per pass attempt (6.1) of the same group that has over 100 pass attempts.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Russell Wilson: We’ve gotten to see Wilson’s ceiling uncorked the past two weeks with Seattle forced to go pass-heavy. This situation should invite Seattle to remain pass-heavy, even if we fail to see Wilson throw 50 times as he did last week. He won’t need that many attempts against an Arizona defense allowing 306 passing yards per game (30th) and 24.2 passing points per game (31st).
• Tyler Lockett: Just as efficient per target to where he left off in 2018, Lockett has reeled in a gaudy 22-of-26 targets the past two weeks on 34.3% and 28.0% of the team targets. The Cardinals have only allowed one 100-yard wideout to start the season, but Lockett’s volume and upside per target are near what they faced in Marquise Brown, who caught 8-of-13 targets for 86 yards. 
• Will Dissly: Dissly has just 14.3% and 14% of the team targets over the past two weeks, but he has three touchdowns over that stretch. The trade of Nick Vannett also opens up more opportunities for Dissly to become a full-time player. Through three weeks, Dissly had run 54 pass routes while Vannett had run 51. And his matchup couldn’t be better. Arizona has allowed lines of 6-131-1, 8-112-1, and 6-75-2 to the lead opposing tight end to start the season. Dissly may not have the target volume of a Greg Olsen or Mark Andrews, but as was the case with T.J. Hockenson’s subsequent volume when not facing Arizona, this defense has elevated early tight end fantasy performances.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Kyler Murray: He’s had at least 16.4 fantasy points in all three starts, but it’s yet to all come together for a ceiling performance as his highest scoring week so far has been good for QB11. We finally saw Murray use his legs last week for 69 yards rushing, which was a welcome sign of getting to that ceiling potential, but he averaged a season-low 4.0 yards per pass attempt as this Arizona passing game has been more quantity than quality through three games. 
• D.K. Metcalf: For as many passing yards the Cardinals have allowed, they’ve remained middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers (14th in points per game), but have allowed multiple wideouts from the same team to finish top-36 in each game except for against the Ravens. 
• Larry Fitzgerald: He’s been a top-30 scorer in all three games to open the season with five or more receptions in each game. 
• Christian Kirk: He’s been all over the place in terms of efficiency per target, but has received 22.2%, 20% and 27.9% of the targets in the pass-heaviest offense in the league. 
• David Johnson: He’s been the RB5 and the RB9 in his two full games played with 24 and 17 touches in those games. Like most of the Cardinals, he’s lacked explosive gains, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per reception, the latter of which would be a career-low. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Chris Carson: Carson’s snap rate has gone from 77.4% in Week 1, to 54.4% in Week 2, to 44% in Week 3 as he’s now lost a fumble in each game to start the season. The Cardinals had been modest against backs to open the season, holding Kerryon Johnson (62 total yards) and Mark Ingram (77 yards) before getting torched by Christian McCaffrey (188 yards) last week, but Carson fits a mold closer to the first two backs while he’s opened the door to have his snaps fall once again to Rashaad Penny and even C.J. Prosise. If Penny is active, he is a dart FLEX option in taking on a larger role should Carson’s struggles in ball security persist.