Panthers vs Texans: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

• Carolina is allowing 4.8 yards per pass play, second to only New England (4.6 yards).
• Just 56.3% of the yardage allowed by Carolina has been through passing, the lowest rate in the league.
• Houston has targeted running backs just 10.9% of the time, ahead of only the Rams (7.7%).
• Kyle Allen is the first quarterback to have 20 or more fantasy points in each of his first two career starts since Tyrod Taylor in 2015.
• The Panthers have scored on 57.1% of their drives (12-of-21) in Allen’s two starts over the past two seasons and have scored on 37.2% on all other possessions.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Christian McCaffrey: He now has 33 and 27 touches in his two full career games played without Cam Newton. McCaffrey has just five catches for 51 yards over the past two weeks, but Houston has allowed 24 receptions to opposing backs (31st). 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Deshaun Watson: Capable of being the highest-scoring passer any week, Watson has top-five scoring weeks against the Saints and Chargers to go with a QB22 week against the Jaguars. The Panthers have been lights-out versus the pass to open the season, allowing 189 passing yards per game (second) to Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, and Kyler Murray.  
• DeAndre Hopkins: He’s had back-to-back mortal weeks and received just 20.6% of the team targets last week, his lowest rate in a game since Week 6 of 2017. He’ll be shadowed by James Bradberry this week, who has allowed just five receptions on 12 targets for 78 yards in coverage through three weeks.
• Greg Olsen: He’s received heavy target shares of 23.7%, 18.0%, and 26.9% to start the season. His 8.8 yards per target would be his highest in a season since 2015 if it sticks. Houston has started off the season seventh in points allowed to opposing tight ends, but have hardly been pressed by New Orleans, Jacksonville, and the Chargers options. 
• D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel: Allen favored Samuel last week as Samuel received seven targets to Moore’s two, but the sample is too small to suggest there’s a shift to Samuel as the featured receiver. Especially after Allen targeted Moore eight times in his other career start. But both once again fall into a situation where we don’t have to avoid the group. Houston has opened the season 28th in points allowed to opposing wideouts with secondary options such as Ted Ginn (7-101) and Chris Conley (4-73) having production to go along with top-end output from lead options in Michael Thomas (10-123), D.J. Chark (7-55-1), and Keenan Allen (13-183-2).
• Will Fuller: It’s a complete scratch once again for Fuller. He still has yet to pop, but has had 24.1% and 20.6% of the team targets the past two games with seven targets in each game. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play

• Kyle Allen: He gets another matchup on the road and while it’s not objectively as strong as facing Arizona’s tide-lifting defense, Houston has allowed 300.3 passing yards per game to quarterbacks to start the season. 
• Carlos Hyde: He’s overtaken Duke Johnson as the primary back, playing 60.6% and 51.7% of the team snaps the past two weeks. As a home favorite, there should be reason to believe that continues here. Carolina has allowed 15.8 rushing points per game to opposing backfields to start the season (25th). Johnson has been reduced to just six and four touches the past two weeks and is dependent on getting negative game script correct.
• Kenny Stills: Stills appears to have surpassed Keke Coutee, running 25 pass routes last week compared to eight for Coutee. Stills received a season-high 17.7% of the team targets after just 10.2% through two weeks. If Hopkins ends up having his hands full for the third-straight game, Stills is a deep play to take another step forward.