Buccaneers vs Rams: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams Sunday afternoon game on September 29, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET.

Tampa Bay	Rank	@	LA Rams	Rank
10		Spread	-10
20		Implied Total	30
22.7	14	Points/Gm	25.7	8
25.7	22	Points All./Gm	16.3	7
65.7	9	Plays/Gm	65.7	11
64.3	19	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.3	13
45.2%	7	Rush%	43.7%	11
54.8%	26	Pass%	56.4%	22
36.3%	11	Opp. Rush %	36.4%	12
63.7%	22	Opp. Pass %	63.6%	21

Jameis Winston has a 137.5 quarterback rating when using play-action (seventh) while posting a 69.5 rating without (26th). That minus-68.0 rating gap is the largest outside of Marcus Mariota (minus-77.2 rating).
Winston has used play-action on just 21.9 percent of his drop backs, 22nd in the league.
Jared Goff has a 49.6 quarterback rating using play-action, 30th in the league. He had a 115.0 rating in 2018 using play-action, ninth in the league.
Goff has completed just 4-of-17 passes (23.5%) on throws 15-yards or further downfield, 34th in the league. He ranked 13th in completion rate on those throws (44.2%) in 2018.
30.9% of the runs against the Buccaneers have failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 18.4%.
The Rams have targeted running backs just 7.7% of the time, the lowest rate in the league. They targeted running backs 17.8% of the time in 2018.
Cooper Kupp leads the league in targets (13), receiving yards (156), first downs (nine) and is tied for the league-lead in receptions (10) and touchdowns (two) on third downs.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Jared Goff: He’s been a top-12 fantasy option in eight of his past nine games at home, including a QB8 scoring week in Week 2 at home versus the Saints. The Bucs have allowed 333 and 336 passing yards the past two weeks to Cam Newton and Daniel Jones.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp is one of just two wideouts (Keenan Allen) to be targeted on 25% of his routes or more in each game this season. Of the Rams wideouts, he’s become the most stable for weekly projection.
Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods: Kupp has been the most reliable member of this receiving unit as Goff hasn’t been reliable in his two road starts for fantasy output. But both Cooks and Woods run into favorable matchups as well, with Cooks lining up with Vernon Hargreaves and Woods slotting across Carlton Davis. After limiting the 49ers in Week 1, Tampa Bay allowed Carolina wideouts to go 18-207-0 in Week 2 and then Giants wideouts to go 11-188-1 a week ago. That was also with each of those teams having a tight end being the lead receiver in those games, something that won’t be the case with the Rams.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Mike Evans: Evans delivered in a big way a week ago in a matchup we highlighted as a great spot to breakout. This week, things aren’t quite as objectively strong. The Rams have allowed the fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards (four) and rank third in points allowed per game (24.8) to opposing wideouts.
Chris Godwin: Godwin will avoid Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib playing inside on 60.6% of his routes. Michael Thomas managed seven slot receptions in Week 2 against the Rams, but turned those slot catches into just 47 yards.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Todd Gurley: Being a 10-point home favorite is a great spot, and Gurley has out-touched Malcolm Brown 33-10 the past two games, but the problem is he hasn’t been the same player in terms of explosion and isn’t being used at all in the passing game. Gurley’s 43 total yards in Week 3 were his lowest under Sean McVay. The Bucs defense showed their stripes in the passing game last weekend, but they’ve now held Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and the 49ers backfield to 160 rushing yards on 59 carries (2.7 YPC) and no touchdowns.
Jameis Winston: He cashed in a great matchup for us last week, but this isn’t a spot to chase that performance. The Rams rank third in passing points allowed per game (7.8) and second in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.22) while allowing just 10.1 yards per completions (seventh).
O.J. Howard: His TE15 finish last week was his highest so far to start the season, but he received just four targets (10.8% of the team targets). The Rams have allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends.
Tampa Bay RBs: Peyton Barber has 24 and 15 touches the past two weeks, but last week also saw Ronald Jones reemerge with 15 touches of his own. Over the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has controlled game script, something we can’t anticipate here, while the timeshare between the usage of this backfield is still far from settled.