The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 27.3 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 28.7 | 9 | Points/Gm | 29 | 8 |
| 20 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 26 | 20 |
| 63.7 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 69.3 | 4 |
| 53.7 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60 | 9 |
| 6.4 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 10 |
| 4.6 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.8 | 31 |
| 53.40% | 2 | Rush% | 39.90% | 20 |
| 46.60% | 31 | Pass% | 60.10% | 13 |
| 39.75% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 41.67% | 19 |
| 60.25% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 58.33% | 14 |
- Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games dating back to last season and in 11 of his past 12 games played.
- The Vikings are fourth in the NFL in expected points added via their passing offense (49.3).
- The Browns are the league’s number one offense in expected points added via rushing (18.1 points).
- 80% (8-of-10) of the Cleveland offensive touchdowns have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league. League average is 36%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Cousins never gets a lot of run, but he just continues to put out fantasy production. To start the year, Cousins has been the QB12 (22 points), QB6 (21.8 points), and QB6 (25.1 points). The interesting thing is that Cousins and this passing offense have not taken the vertical shots they relied on a year ago. Cousins has an average depth of target of just 6.0 yards, which is ahead of only Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, and Andy Dalton. In 2020 that aDOT was 8.7 yards. After 18.8% of Cousins’ pass attempt were on throws over 15 yards downfield in 2020, that mark is 7.6% to open this season. That has played a role in Cousins currently sporting a 73.9% completion rate, which would be a career-high over a full season.
Cousins has yet to throw an interception and is playing efficiently. The Browns have looked great the past six quarters of football, limiting rookies Justin Fields and Davis Mills to complete 14-of-38 passes for 170 yards (4.5 Y/A), but prior to that had allowed a QB2 scoring to Patrick Mahomes (33.3 points) and Tyrod Taylor to connect on 10-of-11 passes for 125 yards (11.4 Y/A) before he exited the game in Week 2. The truth on the Browns’ defense lies between both the opening six quarters and the past six they have played. If you have been playing Cousins to open the season, there is no reason not to go back to him as a lower-end QB1 option.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has opened the season efficiently, connecting on 73.8% of his passes (fifth) for 9.8 yards per attempt (fourth), but has thrown the ball just 80 times (28th) while the Browns have the largest split of rushing touchdowns over passing ones to open the season. Mayfield is 2.9 passing touchdowns below yardage expectation, the lowest in the league. That has all resulted in QB27, QB17, and QB18 scoring weeks. Minnesota is 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.61) to play into Baker’s efficiency rolling along. Inevitably the passing scores will come along for the ride, but Mayfield is a floor-based QB2 with matchup upside.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook: Minnesota held Cook out a week ago due to an ankle injury, but they took things into the 11th hour in holding him out. We will monitor his practice availability and word throughout the week on his potential return to the field this week. After an inefficient open to the season, Cook bounced right back with 148 yards on 24 touches in Week 2 against Arizona.
With Cook out a week ago, Alexander Mattison turned 32 touches into 171 yards against Seattle. Mattison rushed for 112 yards, but also caught 6-of-8 targets for 59 yards.
The Browns have not really been pressed against the Kansas City, Houston, and Chicago backfields to open the year, but they are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, which is third in the league. If Cook is healthy, he returns back to the top-five option he always is. If the Vikings have to go back to Mattison for another week, he is a fringe-RB1.
Nick Chubb: Chubb had his eight-game touchdown snapped last week and it highlighted the floor we mentioned existed last week. With a touchdown, Chubb was the RB36 since he failed to catch a pass, giving him three catches for 21 yards on the season. Chubb did rack up a season-high 22 touches and was held to a season-low 3.8 yards per carry. There will surely be more weeks that Chubb finds the end zone and he has built a career out of rushing efficiency.
This could be a week to leave last week in the past as Minnesota has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (26th) to opposing backs, allowing efficient rushing games to Joe Mixon (29-127-1), Chase Edmonds (8-46-0), and Chris Carson (12-80-1). Chubb’s ceiling is tied to his touchdown production more than some of his ADP peers, but is still a lower-end RB1.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt had a stellar Week 3, amassing 155 yards on 16 touches with a 29-yard touchdown run, his longest touchdown while with the Browns. Hunt also matched Cleveland-highs with seven targets and six receptions, which he turned into 74 yards. Hunt has now started the year with weeks as the RB13, RB43, and RB2. Hunt has now played 19 regular-season games with the Browns. In the 10 games he has scored a touchdown, he has averaged 24.8 points per game. In the other nine games, he has averaged 8.6 points per game. His weekly ceiling is so much higher than other part-time backs that carry weekly RB2/FLEX usage that you just ride the wave.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has had nine or more targets in each of the opening three weeks of the season, turning in weeks of 5-71-0, 6-65-1, and 9-118-1. Jefferson’s aDOT (10.9 yards) is not far off from his 2020 depth of target (12.0 yards), so the reduction of vertical targets for this passing game has not found him. Jefferson also already has two end zone targets for touchdowns in three games after having just two touchdowns on end zone targets over his rookie season. Keep rolling Jefferson out as a WR1.
Adam Thielen: Thielen’s early-season aDOT (6.8 yards) has been nearly half of what it was a year ago (12.5 yards). As a result, Thielen is averaging just 8.6 yards per catch. That would easily be a career-low if that holds up, but Thielen is still getting by because of the narrow target tree (he has 22.6% of the team targets and six or more catches in each game) and he remains the foxhole target for the Vikings in the red zone. Thielen has scored in each of the opening three games and leads the team with three end zone targets, cashing all three in for scores. Thielen is inevitably going to have a game in which he fails to reach the end zone, so we will want to see that aDOT rise over the course of the season, but he is a touchdown-based WR2.
Odell Beckham (TRUST): Beckham was not limited in his return to action this past week, playing 64% of the team snaps and running a pass route on 85% of the team dropbacks. Beckham immediately led the team with nine targets (31.0%), catching five of them for 77 yards. Minnesota has already allowed top-30 scoring weeks to lead wideouts Ja’Marr Chase (5-101-1), DeAndre Hopkins (4-54-1), and D.K. Metcalf (6-107-1) and have allowed 10.8 yards per target to all wide receivers (31st).
K.J. Osborn: After games of 7-76-0 and 5-91-1 to open the year, Osborn dipped down to 2-26-0 last week on just two targets. Osborn was still in route on 76.9% of the team routes last week, which even higher than Week 2. What happened is that last week was a Tyler Conklin game for the first time behind Jefferson and Thielen, leaving Osborn as the fourth option. There will be variance between both options behind those top wideouts, but the playing time attached to the efficiency of Cousins is high enough to keep Osborn in play as a WR4/FLEX in PPR formats.
Tight End
Austin Hooper: Hooper continues to hold a mild edge in playing time among the triumvirate of Cleveland tight ends. Hooper has played 60% or more of the snaps in all three games while running a pass route on 45.2%, 67.9%, and 50% of the team dropbacks. Hooper found the end zone last week, but still has managed just three (3-27-0), five (5-40-0), and three (2-19-1) targets to open the season. I still believe Hooper is the largest beneficiary from the injury to Jarvis Landry, but is still a touchdown-dependent TE2. The Vikings have allowed games of 7-94-0 to Maxx Williams and 6-93-0 to Seattle tight ends the past two games.
Tyler Conklin: After catching 6-of-8 targets for 56 yards through two games, Conklin secured 7-of-8 targets for 70 yards and a score last week in Seattle. Conklin’s routes run (61.5%) were right in line with the first two weeks of the season, giving us the signal that the relationship between his and Osborn’s target opportunity is tethered together. That places Conklin in a deep bucket of TE2 options with variance, but the playing time and the play of Cousins gives him some added appeal in that tier of tight ends. The Browns have not been challenged the past two games with tight end play versus Houston and Chicago after allowing 6-76-2 to Travis Kelce in Week 1.
More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
JAX at CIN | TEN at NYJ | KC at PHI | CAR at DAL | DET at CHI | CLE at MIN | IND at MIA | WFT at ATL | NYG at NO | HOU at BUF | SEA at SF | ARI at LAR | PIT at GB | BAL at DEN | TB at NE | LVR at LAC
