Buccaneers vs Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots Sunday Night Football game.

• Tampa Bay games have averaged a combined 63.7 points per game, the most in the league.
• New England games have averaged 35.0 combined points per game, 28th.
• The Buccaneers have scored the most rushing and receiving PPR points per game on offense (98.2) while allowing the most defensively (95.9).
• The Patriots have averaged 67.9 PPR points per game on offense, 22nd in the league.
• Just 15.8% of the yardage gained against the Buccaneers has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
• 43.6% of the yardage gained against the Patriots has come via rushing, the second-highest rate in the league.
• The Buccaneers are allowing a league-high 9.1 yards per play on third downs. 

Quarterback

Tom Brady: The storyline of this game will be Brady returning back to New England fir the first time. Paired with that, Brady needs just 68 passing yards to take over as the all-time passing yardage leader in NFL history in his return to Foxboro.

Brady has stormed out of the gates as the QB7 (27.2 points), QB3 (29.6), and QB4 (28.7). The Buccaneers lead the NFL in passing rate over expectation through three weeks (+14.8%). Tampa Bay has thrown the ball 82% of the time on first downs and 75% on first down while ahead on the scoreboard, the highest rates in the NFL. It won’t take long for that record to be in Brady’s grasp.

The Patriots have opened the season allowing just 7.9 passing points per game (second in the league), but have started the year off against Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. Bill Belichick knows Brady better than any coach, but Brady and Bucs have too much offensive firepower here to not treat him as anything but a QB1. 

Mac Jones: Jones has not gotten out of the blocks as a fantasy-relevant passer, finishing as the QB23, QB29, and QB26 in weekly scoring through three games. Jones’s yards per pass attempt have dropped in each of his three starts and he is coming off the toughest game of his early career, completing just 58.8% of his passes for 5.3 Y/A with three interceptions against the Saints. 

Opposing teams have blitzed Jones 34.1% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league for quarterbacks that have started every week of the season. Against the blitz, Jones has completed 26-of-46 passes for 235 yards (5.7 Y/A) with one touchdown and interception. NO team has blitzed more this season than the Buccaneers at 41.5% of the time. This has left their injury-filled secondary vulnerable and opposing passers have completed 72.2% of their passes against the Bucs (28th). Jones will be asked to match the GOAT on the scoreboard and have passing volume, but Jones has not shown us that he is someone other than a back-end QB2 option for fantasy.

Running Back

Damien Harris: The Patriots run game, and Harris by proxy, has gotten worse each week of the season. After rushing 23 times for 100 yards in Week 1 (4.4 YPC), Harris has rushed 16 times for 62 yards (3.9 YPC) and six times for 14 yards (2.3 YPC) the past two weeks. The Patriots draw another brutal run defense here against the Bucs, who are allowing 3.3 YPC to opposing running backs (sixth) and are allowing just 57.3 rushing yards to collective backfields per game (seventh). With Harris’s lack of receiving work (five catches for 16 yards), he is only a desperation play this week that needs to fall into the end zone.

Patriots RBs: While the Bucs have stomped out the opposing run game, they have allowed 13.3 receiving points per game (23rd) to opposing backfields. This would be an easy spot for James White to take advantage, but White suffered a hip injury last week that will have him sidelined. With White out, it would have made sense to see J.J. Taylor take over that vacated role, but the Patriots went to Brandon Bolden for 20 pass routes (three catches for 23 yards) the rest of the way out compared to just eight routes for Taylor. I am not going to tell you to play Bolden, however. We also should see Rhamondre Stevenson dress again for the first time since losing a fumble in Week 1, but he is not an option here for fantasy. 

Buccaneers RBs: The Bucs backfield has been the headache as advertised entering the season, but we do have some clarity on roles depending on game script. While the Bucs have been in neutral game script or ahead, Leonard Fournette has led the backfield in snaps, touches, and routes run. Ronald Jones has totaled 16 touches for 61 yards through three games.

Last week when the Bucs trailed throughout the game for the first time, we finally saw them dust off Giovani Bernard. Bernard had played just 23 snaps total the opening two weeks, totaling four receptions for 28 yards. Last week, he caught 9-of-10 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. Bernard still does not even have a rushing attempt on the season. Bernard is out this week with a knee injury, leaving Fournette likely to play those long down and distance snaps as he did a year ago. 

No Tampa Bay running back has rushed for a touchdown yet this season, but as 6.5 point favorites, the early signal is that Fournette will be the most active on Sunday night. Fournette was the RB30 (10.9 points) and RB22 (11.6) the opening two weeks of the season, leaving him as an RB3/FLEX play for those willing to gamble on this backfield. 

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin: Godwin has been the most stable Tampa Bay wideout dating back to last season. Going back to last season, Godwin had just three weeks outside of the top-30 scorers at his position. He has already opened the season with games of 9-105-1, 4-62-1, and 6-74-0 with a rushing touchdown. Godwin has been in the slot for 70% of his snaps. From the slot, the Patriots have allowed receiving lines of 3-44-1, 5-79-0, and 3-26-1 to opposing wideouts from the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints. Godwin remains a fringe WR1 option. 

Mike Evans: After a down 3-24-0 game on six targets in Week 1, Evans has bounced back with games of 5-75-2 (nine targets) and 8-106-0 on 10 looks. The Patriots have allowed just 1.57 points per target (fifth), but have hardly been pressed by any strong receiver play as highlighted here throughout. Targets will bounce around here for the Bucs wideouts based on matchups and weekly game plans and Godwin is the standout here inside, but Evans should draw Jalen Mills for most of his snaps at LWR, where Evans lines up 45% of the time and Mills has played 59% of his snaps. Evans is a high-end WR2.

Antonio Brown: Brown missed last week due to COVID, but should be back in the lineup this Sunday. We highlighted Brown’s Week 1 usage being something that was going to cause a lot of weekly variance compared to Evans and Godwin and we saw that play out in Week 2 when he caught just 1-of-3 targets for 17 yards. Brown played just 44% of the snaps and ran a route on just 52.5% of the team dropbacks. Both Evans and Godwin have better individual draws as Brown should line up with J.C. Jackson the most, but Brown has enough variance in his deployment and gets enough high-leverage targets when he is targeted to be a boom-or-bust WR3. 

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers may never catch a touchdown pass in his NFL career (kidding… mostly) but he has steadily been the anchor for this passing offense, accruing 23.7% (6-44-0), 21.4% (4-38-0), and 27.5% (9-94-0) of the team targets through three games. Meyers has run a pass route 96.1% of the team dropbacks, which leads the team.

Meyers also runs 81% of his snaps from the slot, which is the best individual spot to attack the Bucs early in the season. Veteran slot corner Ross Cockrell has been targeted in the slot 15 times (third-most) allowing 12 of those targets to be completed for 104 yards and two touchdowns. Meyers has more viability in PPR formats, but is a floor-based WR3 here with the Patriots expected to ramp up the passing volume through game script and the Bucs strong run defense.

Nelson Agholor: After catching 5-of-7 targets for 72 yards and a score in Week 1, Agholor has reeled in 5-of-11 targets for 38 yards the past two weeks. He is still out there for 91.6% of the route participation, but he and Mac Jones have connected on just 2-of-6 targets on throws over 15 yards downfield. The Bucs enter Sunday allowing the second-most receiving yardage per game (241.0 yards) to opposing wideouts, but have faced two elite units in the Cowboys and Rams to go along with the Falcons. The Bucs just lost Jamel Dean to injury after losing Sean Murphy-Bunting in Week 1, which has led to them adding Richard Sherman this week. Agholor is not a seasonal league play, but should push his eight targets from a week ago to give him a pulse in Showdown DFS slates.

Kendrick Bourne: With the Patriots having a season-high 56 dropbacks last week, Bourne played a season-high 76% of the snaps and caught 6-of-8 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. The game script should be similar here, giving Bourne the same footing as a showdown DFS dart throw.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk is the other future Hall of Famer making his return to Foxboro. Setting up the narrative that Brady can actually break the passing yardage record in his return on a pass to Gronk. 

Gronk played a season-low 62% of the snaps last week after was shaken up mid-game with a hit, but he still secured 4-of-7 targets for 55 yards. Gronk leads the team with four end zone targets after leading the team with 14 in 2020. New England has allowed a league-low 0.61 points per target to opposing tight ends, allowing 4-of-11 targets to be completed for 27 yards, but as noted here, they have faced the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints units. 

*Gronk is out for Sunday Night. Fortunately, you can look to his own team in Cameron Brate as an option with O.J. Howard as an upside dart throw. Brate has already run 53 routes this season to just 13 for Howard.

Patriots TEs: After heavily spending this offseason on Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, the Patriots locked themselves into forcing heavy 12 personnel usage. They have upped their 12 personnel usage to 27% to open the season, but it has been one of their worst offensive packages as they have a 35% successful passing play rate using that package to open the season. When they have played 11 personnel (3WR), that jumps at least a bit up to 46%. 

The highest Patriot tight end finish for fantasy is TE16 by Smith in Week 1. Since then, Smith has seen his playing time drop from 73% of the snaps down to 49% and 42% the past two games. Henry has played 72%, 81%, and 72% of the snaps, but has totaled 10 catches on 13 targets for 109 yards through three games. The cannibalization here prevents both tight ends from being nothing more than a TE2 dart throw but Henry’s playing time has been more table to open the year is playing either in single-game DFS. The Bucs have allowed games of 9-65-0 to Dallas tight ends, 7-88-0 to Atlanta tight ends, and 5-40-1 to Rams tight ends to start the season.

More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

JAX at CIN | TEN at NYJ | KC at PHI | CAR at DAL | DET at CHI | CLE at MIN | IND at MIA | WFT at ATL | NYG at NO | HOU at BUF | SEA at SF | ARI at LAR | PIT at GB | BAL at DEN | TB at NE | LVR at LAC