The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Eagles and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 23.3 | 12 | Points/Gm | 21.3 | 15 |
| 21.0 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 20.7 | 15 |
| 69.7 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 54.7 | 28 |
| 57.0 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.7 | 29 |
| 5.9 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 21 |
| 6 | 27 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 21 |
| 47.85% | 11 | Rush% | 42.07% | 18 |
| 52.15% | 22 | Pass% | 57.93% | 15 |
| 45.61% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 41.87% | 13 |
| 54.39% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 58.13% | 20 |
- Tampa Bay has a -11 sack differential, the worst through three weeks.
- The Buccaneers are averaging 3.05 points per drive without a sack (3rd) compared to 0.55 points per drive when sacked (24th).
- 53.3% of Philadelphia’s drives have reached the red zone or scored a touchdown prior, the highest rate in the league.
- 46.7% of the drives against Tampa Bay have reached the red zone or scored prior, 30th in the league.
- 43.3% of the drives against Philadelphia have reached the red zone or scored prior, 29th in the league.
- The Eagles have forced a three-and-out with a punt on 6.7% of opponent drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Buccaneers are the final remaining team that has yet to allow a passing touchdown.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: Hurts had an excellent passing line on Sunday, completing 76.3% of his passes for 311 yards and 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
But because he did not throw a touchdown and had two turnovers, Hurts ended the week as QB24 (10.9 points).
For Hurts this week, we are looking to see who he will have available to catch passes.
With the Eagles on bye next week, the team may elect to rest both A.J. Brown (still recovering from a hamstring injury) and DeVonta Smith (who left last week with a concussion).
Britain Covey also broke a bone in his shoulder and landed on injured reserve.
Should the Eagles rest their top wideouts, Hurts will be rolling into the week with Dallas Goedert as his top pass catcher, with Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson as the top wideouts.
Goedert stepped up last week with a monster game, but we cannot go into the week expecting him to carry this passing game to the degree he did last week.
These teams have hooked up multiple times in recent seasons, and Todd Bowles has sent everything he can to Hurts.
Bowles has blitzed Hurts on 43.7% of his dropbacks, the highest rate for a passer that a Bowles-led defense has faced multiple times.
Hurts is 1-3 against Bowles, throwing 4 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in those games.
When blitzed in those games, Hurts has completed 38-of-67 (56.7%) passes for 6.3 yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Keeping Hurts clean has been paramount to open the season.
Hurts is 19-of-36 (52.8%) for 3.5 yards per attempt when pressured.
Kept clean, he is 53-of-66 (80.3%) for 9.8 yards per attempt.
The good news is that the Bucs have struggled to create pressure this season.
They are 20th in pressure rate (31.5%) and only have a 1.7% sack rate, the lowest in the NFL.
Hurts still has his legs as an out for added points, regardless of who plays.
He did have 3 rushing touchdowns in those games but was held to 44 yards or fewer in all four.
Even with Hurts downgraded as a volatile QB1 based on his available pass catchers, he is still more challenging to stream for in 1QB leagues.
Things could balance out some if the Bucs are without Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield for another game, but the Bucs are second in the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt (0.211).
Baker Mayfield: After opening the season with a pair of top-five scoring weeks, Mayfield crashed down to Earth with a QB28 (8.5 points) showing on Sunday.
Mayfield was harassed all afternoon, taking a season-high 7 sacks.
Similar to Hurts, Mayfield has been excellent from a clean pocket.
He has completed 78.5% of his passes (8th) for 8.2 yards per attempt (8th) without pressure.
The Eagles struggled to generate pressure to start the season but were sixth in the league last week with a 44.4% pressure rate against the Saints.
When these teams last met in the playoffs, the Eagles were circling the drain and were not helmed by Vic Fangio.
Mayfield threw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game.
Fangio showed he still has it in slowing down the red-hot New Orleans passing game, but the pressure was a huge part of that success.
When they did not pressure Carr, they still allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt and a 78.6% completion rate.
They have to get to Mayfield at the same rate they did Derek Carr and to the same degree Denver did against Tampa Bay last week.
I prefer to use Mayfield as a boom-or-bust QB2, but there is upside in this matchup should the Eagles play similarly to the opening two weeks compared to Week 3.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to learn more about our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
