The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Texans and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
| 13.3 | 30 | Points/Gm | 18.3 | 21 |
| 28.3 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 24.7 | 23 |
| 57.7 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 5 |
| 63.3 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.3 | 5 |
| 4.8 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 19 |
| 5.7 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 5 |
| 36.99% | 27 | Rush% | 38.00% | 25 |
| 63.01% | 6 | Pass% | 62.00% | 8 |
| 43.68% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 42.60% | 15 |
| 56.32% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 57.40% | 18 |
- Houston is one of three teams remaining that have yet to cover a point spread, joining the Titans and Dolphins.
- 31.0% of the Houston set of downs have reached third and long (needing 7-plus yards), ahead of only the Browns (36.7%).
- Just 3.5% of the Houston plays have gained 20 or more yards (29th). That rate was 7.0% in 2023 (5th).
- Houston has allowed 10 or more yards on 14.2% of their defensive snaps, third in the league.
- The Jaguars have a 34.9% success rate on passing plays, ahead of only the Panthers, Colts, and Browns.
- Jacksonville allows 2.77 points per drive, ahead of only the Rams (3.14) and Commanders (3.83).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (TRUST): After opening the season with a QB7 week (18.7 points), Stroud has closed the past two weeks as QB13 (14.3 points) and QB25 (9.8 points).
He was the latest victim to struggle stacking points against the Vikings.
Stroud was pressured on a season-high 40.5% of his dropbacks on Sunday, taking a sack on 11.4%, his highest rate in a game since Week 14 last season.
That was huge because the Texans have struggled to overcome sacks the past two seasons.
This season, Houston averages 0.51 points per drive with a sack compared to 2.26 points without a sack.
In Stroud’s rookie season, they only averaged 0.50 points per drive with a sack compared to 2.23 points without a sack.
This is an excellent spot to keep Stroud clean and score points.
Jacksonville is 22nd in pressure rate (30.2%) and 28th in sack rate (4.7%) to open the year.
Last season in this matchup, Jacksonville only sacked Stroud 4 times on 77 dropbacks.
When the Jaguars did not get to Stroud, the Texans scored 3.0 points per drive.
Stroud was the QB4 (30.9 points) and QB10 (20.6 points) in those games.
The Jaguars are 27th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.506) and 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8).
Trevor Lawrence: Things continued to run poorly for Lawrence and this passing game in Buffalo on Monday.
Lawrence completed just 55.3% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt on Monday.
That was his fewest yards per attempt in a game since 2022.
Lawrence has not completed 60% of his passes in any game three weeks into this season.
He is only ahead of Anthony Richardson in completion rate (52.8%)
Lawrence is 29th in completion rate versus expectation (-5.6%).
On throws under 10 yards downfield, he has completed a league-low 60.4% of his passes. The league average on those throws is 74.8%.
The schedule has not been kind, but things do not improve here on the surface.
Houston has allowed 6.8 yards per attempt (12th) and a 58.3% completion rate (3rd) to passers.
They have faced Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams as part of that sample, but Lawrence has not shown much more than those young quarterbacks to open the year to handle him as more than a QB2 for fantasy.
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
