The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Falcons and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spread | -2 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 22.25 | ||
| 34.3 | 2 | Points/Gm | 16.3 | 26 |
| 14.7 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 13 |
| 57.7 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 54.7 | 28 |
| 62.7 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.7 | 31 |
| 6 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 13 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 10 |
| 60.69% | 1 | Rush% | 45.73% | 16 |
| 39.31% | 32 | Pass% | 54.27% | 17 |
| 35.11% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 53.88% | 28 |
| 64.89% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 46.12% | 5 |
- 35.5% of the Atlanta set of downs have reached third down, the lowest rate in the league.
- When they reached third downs, Atlanta converted 23.3% fewer third downs than their opponents, 31st in the league.
- Atlanta is allowing 5.0 scoring plays per game (27th), but 26.7% (4-of-15) of the scoring plays allowed by Atlanta have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have allowed 10 or more yards on 14.6% of their defensive snaps, 4th in the league.
- The Saints have allowed 10 or more yards on 14.9% of their defensive snaps, 5th in the league.
- The Saints are averaging 6.0 sacks plus takeaways per game,3rd in the league.
- The Falcons are averaging 1.7 sacks plus takeaways per game, 30th.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 2-of-8 red zone possessions against New Orleans, the lowest rate for a team with that many red zone trips allowed.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Derek Carr: After opening the season on fire with back-to-back top-6 scoring weeks, Carr delivered a sobering week as QB27 (8.0 points).
He threw for a season-low 5.7 yards per pass attempt with 1 TD and an interception.
Where the Eagles had success was winning up front.
After three snaps, the Saints lost Erik McCoy, and the Philadelphia defensive line (notably Jalen Carter) played their best game of the early season.
Carr was pressured on 44.4% of his dropbacks after 12.0% and 29.4% in the opening two games.
When pressured, Carr was 3-of-11 (27.3%) for only 19 yards (1.7 Y/A) and his interception.
For his career, we know Carr is sensitive to pressure.
With McCoy headed to injured reserve, let’s see how Klint Kubiak calibrates things after his absence was exposed last weekend.
Atlanta has opened the season 23rd in pressure rate (28.3%) and only has a 3.2% sack rate (31st).
While Sunday was a solid check for Carr, he is still an option as a fringe QB1 but is best used as a floor-based QB2 when the spike weeks roll in naturally.
The peripheral things we liked in this offense were present last week.
The Saints used motion on a league-high 92.6% of dropbacks.
If there is one nit to pick with this new offense under Kubiak, for all of the good they have done early in the season, this coaching tree has a history of overcommitting to the run on early downs.
We saw this with Bobby Slowik last year in Houston.
On Sunday, the Saints had a 46.3% dropback rate on early downs (27th) despite a 21.7% success rate on early-down runs (30th).
The Falcons have played man coverage on only 14.1% of dropbacks (28th), primarily Cover-3 on 49.0% of snaps (4th).
Carr is 20-of-28 for 306 yards (10.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns to open the season against Cover-3.
That said, the Falcons have played well in pass defense, ranking 11th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.329) and only 6th in yards allowed per attempt (6.0).
We also have a pedestrian implied team total here for the Saints on the road, which is something to layer in.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has looked more comfortable in this offense the past two weeks after a season opener that resembled a preseason outing for the Atlanta passing game.
Cousins has completed 20-of-29 passes in the past two weeks for 8.1 Y/A and 3 touchdowns.
After playing out of shotgun for 96.0% of his dropbacks in Week 1, Cousins has been under center for 43.0% the past two weeks.
With no rushing element to his game, Cousins will go as far as his passing touchdown production for fantasy.
He is best used as a QB2 because of that.
This could be a more challenging assignment.
The Saints are third in passing points allowed per attempt early this season (0.224), holding Dak Prescott (12.9 points) and Jalen Hurts (10.9 points) outside of the top 20 the past two games after shutting down Bryce Young in the opener.
On top of that, Atlanta is also dealing with offensive line issues.
Both Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman are expected to miss time.
Like Carr, Cousins can struggle when facing pressure.
Under pressure this season, Cousins has a 47.4 rating (25th), completing 16-of-30 passes (53.3%) with one touchdown and 3 interceptions.
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
