The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Colts and Steelers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-2.0 | Spread | 2.0 | ||
21.0 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
17.0 | 24 | Points/Gm | 19.3 | 17 |
8.7 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 13 |
63.0 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 50.0 | 32 |
50.3 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 75.7 | 32 |
4.6 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 3 |
4.6 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 16 |
57.14% | 3 | Rush% | 48.67% | 9 |
42.86% | 30 | Pass% | 51.33% | 24 |
40.40% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 53.30% | 27 |
59.60% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 46.70% | 6 |
- Pittsburgh games are averaging a league-low 25.7 combined points.
- Pittsburgh games are averaging a league-low 518.7 combined yards. The league average is 638.4.
- The Colts have scored on a league-low 14.3% (2-of-14) of their first-half possessions.
- The Colts are averaging a league-high 7.5 yards per play on first downs compared to 5.3 yards per play on all other downs (15th).
- Pittsburgh averages -2.4 yards per play on first down compared to its opponents, which is the worst differential in the league.
- The Steelers are averaging 3.7 yards per play on first down, ahead of only the Browns (3.5).
- Pittsburgh has converted 23.6% more third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
- The Colts have a 31.2% success rate per passing play (31st) compared to a 47.9% success rate on rushing plays (5th).
- The Steelers are the final remaining team that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
- The Steelers have a 28.7% success rate on rushing plays (31st).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson: After opening the season as QB4 (26.1 points), Richardson has flatlined back-to-back weeks as QB25 (9.9 points) and QB31 (5.1 points).
We have always had questions about Richardson’s passing acumen.
He is dead last in the NFL with a 49.3% completion rate, 10.3% below his expected completion rate.
17.8% of Richardson’s passes have been inaccurate, ahead of only Bryce Young.
For the season, Richardson now has 23.3 passing points.
The only starters with fewer who have played all three weeks are Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix.
Those who drafted Richardson knew that he remained a projection as a passer.
In the past two weeks, though, gamers have gotten only 3.7 and 2.4 rushing points.
As Richardson’s NFL sample expands, he has shown that his rushing profile is predicated on designed runs over scrambling.
Richardson is hanging in the pocket and trying to hit throws when pressured.
So far, that has been a win-win for defenses.
Richardson has 9 designed runs (6th among quarterbacks), but his 7.3% scramble rate is 11th.
Richardson only has 6 scrambles, the same as Brissett and Joe Burrow.
When pressured, Richardson is 28th in scramble rate in the league since he entered the NFL.
His 2024 rate (8.3%) is lower than Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff.
For some context:
- Jayden Daniels has scrambled on 41.7% of his pressures.
- Josh Allen is at 27.6%.
- Lamar Jackson 25.0%.
- Justin Fields 17.9%.
Richardson is still a factor as a rusher in the red zone, but without that bed of rushing production to elevate Richardson’s floor, he cannot live as a QB1 at his current output.
I am not bailing on Richardson’s upside because Shane Steichen is a coach I believe in, but Richardson is a hyper-volatile option for weeks where he does not scramble or get into the end zone as a runner.
Or he has to flip the switch as a passer massively.
This is a spot where I would knock him down to a boom-or-bust QB2 because the passing matchup is not even good.
The Steelers are 5th in the NFL pressure rate (41.8%) and are 7th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.272).
Pittsburgh has allowed a 36.5 rating when pressuring the opposing quarterback.
Justin Fields (TRUST): Fields is just the starter for the Steelers right now, regardless of Russell Wilson’s status.
There is some overstatement of how great Fields has played in creating big-picture wins for the Steelers against front-end competition, but he is managing the offense and avoiding negative plays for the first time in his career.
Fields has posted a career-high 73.3% completion rate, which is also attached to a career-low 6.0 air yards per attempt and a career-low 9.4 yards per completion.
His 7.4% sack rate and 1.3% interception rate are the lowest rates of his career, which have driven him to retain the job.
The Steelers have turned Fields into something similar to what Brian Daboll did with Daniel Jones two years ago.
They are giving him a lot of short field reads with rushing opportunities, simply asking him not to lose them games.
That can help us with some added volume since Fields still can use his legs.
Fields has yet to deliver a QB1 scoring week to open the season, but he was close last week at QB13 (18.4 points).
If Fields had that game in either of the first two weeks this season, he would have been a QB1 scorer those weeks.
Although he only ran six times last week, he had a rushing touchdown and threw a season-high 32 passes.
Teams facing the Colts are running an exuberant number of plays.
Every team that has faced the Colts has run the most plays they have in a game this season in that matchup.
Even when the Packers faced the Colts with a run-first game plan and controlled the clock, they ran a season-high 67 plays.
The Colts allow 14.9 passing points per game (26th) when Fields does have to throw.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |