The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Packers and Vikings.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23 | ||
| 28.3 | 3 | Points/Gm | 25 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 19.3 | 12 |
| 55 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 14 |
| 66 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60 | 14 |
| 6 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.4 | 2 |
| 4.7 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 20 |
| 47.27% | 14 | Rush% | 60.33% | 2 |
| 52.73% | 19 | Pass% | 39.67% | 31 |
| 30.30% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 37.22% | 6 |
| 69.70% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 62.78% | 27 |
- The Vikings and Packers are 2-of-3 remaining teams that have led at halftime in all three games this season.
- Minnesota is 2nd in the NFL in first-half point differential (+31), while Green Bay is 3rd (+25).
- The Packers are averaging a league-high 46.7 yards per drive in the 1st half of games.
- The Vikings average 38.9 yards per drive in the first half (5th).
- Minnesota has led for a league-high 84.2% of the offensive snaps.
- The Vikings are the only remaining team that has not run an offensive play in the second half while trailing.
- Minnesota leads the league with 7.3 sacks plus takeaways per game.
- Green Bay is 2nd with 6.7 sacks plus takeaways per game.
- Minnesota has allowed 0.94 points per drive (2nd in the league), their fewest through three games since the 2010 season.
- 19.4% of the Green Bay drives have failed to gain a first down, 2nd in the NFL behind San Francisco (17.2%). The league average is 33.0%.
- The Packers have a league-high 17 plays of 20 or more yards on offense.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Darnold’s hot start to open the 2024 season continued on Sunday.
He threw for a season-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 181 yards, but Darnold tossed another 4 touchdowns, boosting his league lead to 8 on the year.
He is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in all three weeks of the season.
His 10.3% touchdown rate leads the NFL while passing touchdowns make up 55.4% of his fantasy points.
The only other quarterbacks over 50% are Justin Herbert and Will Levis.
While that is not remotely sustainable, Darnold is tracking to be this year’s Geno Smith or Baker Mayfield from previous seasons.
This offense will get Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson back at varying points of the season.
I still would prefer to use Darnold as a QB2 and take the spike weeks as they come since he is living on touchdown passes right now, but I do not have a ton of pushback if 1QB gamers are riding the wave until things crash.
When Darnold has been kept clean, he has connected on 41-of-53 (77.4%) for a league-high 10.4 yards per pass attempt.
He leads the NFL with 4 passing touchdowns under pressure, but that has been the only way defenses have slowed down this passing game.
Under pressure, he has completed 48.0% of his passes (20th) for 4.3 Y/A (25th).
That will be the inflection point if Green Bay can slow things down for Darnold.
When the Packers have not created pressure, they allow 8.5 yards per pass attempt (28th).
When they have pressured the opposing passer, Green Bay is allowing 4.0 yards per attempt (5th).
Jordan Love: We will enter this week optimistic that Love has his best chance to return to the field this weekend and adjust as information becomes available.
If Love does return, he will be a volatile QB2.
One is because we do not know how mobile he will be, and two is out of respect for the success that Minnesota has had defensively slowing down San Francisco and Houston the past two weeks.
To give Love some benefit of the doubt, if you have been holding him and no longer want to stream, he is the only quarterback to throw more than 2 touchdown passes against Minnesota since Week 3 of last season.
When these teams last played in Week 17 last season, Love was QB2 (28.4 points), throwing 3 touchdowns and rushing for another.
Minnesota has opened the year 5th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.248) with 6.6 yards allowed per attempt (10th).
Brian Flores blitzed Love on 45.1% of his dropbacks last season.
Love was 24-of-36 (66.7%) for 233 yards (6.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns on those dropbacks, taking only one sack.
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
