The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Bears and Rams.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 22 | ||
| 19 | 20 | Points/Gm | 17.7 | 22 |
| 30.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 19 | 10 |
| 60.3 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 67.7 | 3 |
| 62.7 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.7 | 11 |
| 5.1 | 18 | Off. Yards/Play | 3.7 | 32 |
| 6.8 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 11 |
| 38.12% | 23 | Rush% | 35.47% | 28 |
| 61.88% | 10 | Pass% | 64.53% | 5 |
| 55.85% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 46.02% | 22 |
| 44.15% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 53.98% | 11 |
- The Rams have a league-worst -43.6 EPA defensively, their worst rate through three weeks since the 2008 season.
- The Rams have scored on a league-high 53.3% of their second-half drives (8-of-15) compared to a 21.4% (3-of-14) rate in the first half (29th).
- 51.7% of the drives against the Rams have reached the red zone or scored a touchdown prior, 31st in the league.
- 14.7% of the Chicago drives have reached the red zone or scored a touchdown prior, 31st in the league.
- 63.7% of the Chicago set of downs have reached third down, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 47.0%.
- The Rams allow a first down or touchdown every 2.9 plays, the worst rate in the NFL.
- The Bears’ offense averages a first down or touchdown every 4.6 plays, the worst rate in the league.
- The Bears have a 68.4% success rate defensively on passing plays, 2nd in the NFL.
- The Rams have a 47.0% success rate defensively on passing plays, 31st.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Williams is coming off the best fantasy game of his early career, ending last week as QB14 (17.3 points).
Williams needed 52 pass attempts to get there, but he has made steps forward each week of the season.
His completion rate and yards per pass attempt have gone up each game.
Where he needs to clean things up is the 4 interceptions the past two weeks, but this offense is still not creating many easy buttons for him.
The Bears are 25th in motion per dropback (29.9%), while Williams is 22nd in rate of play action (20.3%).
Despite that, we will chase Williams in this spot, potentially delivering the first QB1 week of his career.
He is in play as a streaming option in 1QB formats and will be an intriguing DFS option.
With all of their injuries, the Rams’ pass defense has been non-existent these past two weeks.
The Rams are allowing a league-high 0.722 passing points per attempt and 19.0 passing points per game (31st).
Passers have completed 72.2% of their passes against Los Angeles (28th) for a league-high 9.8 yards per pass attempt and 8.9% touchdown rate (31st).
Quarterbacks are doing damage against the Rams downfield.
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, the Rams have allowed 21 completions (30th), a 65.6% completion rate (31st), 16.3 yards per attempt (32nd), and a league-high 6 touchdowns.
Outside of Shane Waldron, the one concern here would be the Rams getting home with pressure.
Despite their struggles to cover anyone, the Rams have a 37.9% pressure rate (10th).
Under pressure, Williams has a… checks notes… 13.7 rating, completing 9-of-28 passes (32.1%) for 2.7 yards per attempt with 3 interceptions.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford played solid real football last week, given the matchup and the skill players he was throwing to.
He averaged a season-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt against a San Francisco defense that has given him fits over his tenure with the Rams.
Unfortunately, that only resulted in a QB21 (12.8 points) scoring week.
Over the past two weeks, with a limited arsenal, Stafford has been QB30 and QB21.
One thing that the Rams are trying to do with their beleaguered offense is attempting to slow things down.
After running 74 plays with a 68.9% dropback rate in Week 1, the Rams have run 52 and 55 plays in the past two games with a 61.5% and 52.7% dropback rate.
This past week, they were 10% below pass rate expectations and 11% below expectations in Week 2.
In Week 1, they were 3% over expectations and 22% over expectations on first downs in that game.
That leaves Stafford as a lower-end QB2 option until this team gets healthier.
The Bears have played good pass defense to open the season, allowing 7.4 passing points per game, which is 3rd in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
