The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Dolphins and Titans on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Tennessee | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
19.25 | Implied Total | 17.75 | ||
16.0 | 28 | Points/Gm | 11.0 | 32 |
26.0 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 24.0 | 22 |
58.0 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 8 |
56.0 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 51.7 | 2 |
4.5 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 23 |
4.7 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
37.36% | 26 | Rush% | 39.29% | 22 |
62.64% | 7 | Pass% | 60.71% | 11 |
49.40% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 48.39% | 23 |
50.60% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 51.61% | 10 |
- Miami has been outscored by 38 points (58-20) in the first half this season, the worst differential in the league.
- The Titans have been outscored by 34 points (48-14) in the second half this season, the worst differential in the league.
- The Dolphins had -25.2 EPA on offense in Week 3, the lowest for a team in a game this season and their lowest as a franchise since Week 2 of the 2021 season.
- The Dolphins have scored on a league-low 21.2% of their possessions.
- The Titans have scored on 22.9% of their drives, 31st in the league.
- Tennessee has a -7 turnover differential, the worst in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Will Levis: Levis has opened the season as the QB20 or lower each week.
He is coming off a season-high 260 passing yards and a 76.5% completion rate, but once again, 3 turnovers dragged down his performance.
Levis has lost the most EPA in the league on sacks (-32.5) in addition to a league-high 8 turnovers.
There have been spouts of competence from Levis in all three games, but ball protection has cratered each outing.
That keeps Levis as a volatile QB2 for fantasy.
Miami has had its issues to open the season, but they have pressured quarterbacks on 42.7% of dropbacks, fourth in the league.
Levis has completed 57.1% of his passes for 4.5 yards per pass attempt and has taken 14 sacks when pressured.
Levis has completed 72.7% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt when kept clean.
Miami QB: Miami’s quarterback situation went worse than expected last week.
Skylar Thompson started the game but was forced to leave with a chest injury. Before Thompson exited, he was averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
Tim Boyle checked in, completing 53.8% of his passes for 6.1 yards per attempt.
Miami averaged 3.7 yards per play, 29th in the league in Week 3.
The Dolphins have averaged 4.8 yards per play with Tua Tagovailoa off the field (535 plays) under Mike McDaniel.
With Tua on the field, that rate is 6.4 yards per play.
That is the difference between being No. 1 in yards per play and 30th throughout McDaniel’s tenure.
If Thompson or Boyle were to start on Monday, this would be an offense with limited expectations.
The wild card is them turning things over to Tyler Huntley, who can at least create with his legs.
Huntley has made 9 starts over his career with Baltimore, completing 64.4% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Those 5.8 yards per attempt rank 62nd out of 70 quarterbacks to throw 100 or more passes since Huntley entered the league, but they are higher than Thompson.
In his 11 games with double-digit dropbacks, Huntley averaged 41.9 rushing yards per game.
He only has one QB1 scoring week in that sample, but that one game was the highest-scoring game overall that week.
Huntley would have the best playmakers of his career to work with.
He does have 43 passes thrown to Mark Andrews, but the only other targets that Huntley has thrown a football to double-digit times are Demarcus Robinson (24), Isaiah Likely (19), and DeSean Jackson (11).
If Huntley starts, he has more 2QB appeal than anyone else Miami could put on the field.
The Titans have allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt (4th), but they are 31st in the league in pressure rate (23.1%).
Running Back
De’Von Achane: Nobody survived this offense last week, and Achane was no exception. He rushed 11 times for 30 yards, catching 3-of-5 targets for 28 yards.
The potential of Huntley starting could create some efficiency, but this team has struggled to run the ball to start the season.
31.9% of the Miami backfield runs have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league so far. In 2023, that rate was 16.7% (13th).
We may also get Raheem Mostert back Monday night to muddy the backfield.
I would avoid Mostert if he is active.
With the state of the offense, Achane is a boom-or-bust RB2.
Tennessee allows 3.7 yards per carry to running backs (6th) with a first down or touchdown allowed on 18.8% of those runs (8th).
The appeal for Achane will be his receiving role.
He leads all running backs with 17 catches and 173 yards out of the backfield.
Tennessee is 30th in receiving points allowed to running backs (13.8 per game).
Tony Pollard: After games with 94 and 102 yards to start the season, Pollard had a season-low 9 touches for 29 yards on Sunday.
Pollard still held a 34-19 edge in snaps over Tyjae Spears, but he handled 60% of the backfield touches after opening the season with 70.4% and 73.3% of the backfield touches.
Brian Callahan has mentioned getting this backfield split tighter than it has been, so we will approach Pollard cautiously as a matchup-based RB2/FLEX.
The Miami front has been getting pressure on passing downs, but they have had issues stopping the run to open the season.
The Dolphins have allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs (25th) while allowing a first down or touchdown on 28.8% of those runs (30th).
They are 31st in rushing points allowed to backs per game (20.8).
Tyjae Spears: Spears was not limited by his ankle injury but did not carve out a significant workload on Sunday to be fantasy-viable.
He handled a season-high 40% of the Tennessee backfield touches, rushing 2 times for 7 yards and catching four passes for 54 yards.
We still need Spears to garner more work to have standalone value as a fantasy starter.
That leaves him best used for showdown slates as a dart throw, but as noted above, this matchup offers an avenue for efficiency should Spears get more rushing work.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Hill was held to 3 catches for 40 yards on Sunday, giving him back-to-back weeks outside the top 50 scorers at wide receiver.
The last time that happened was the first three games of his career.
Since joining the Dolphins, Hill has run 239 routes with Tua off the field. He has not scored a receiving touchdown on those plays.
He does have 2.18 yards per route run (1.37 with Skylar Thompson).
80 of those routes were with Teddy Bridgewater.
On those dropbacks, he averaged 3.86 yards per route.
We need Tyler Huntley to be comparable to what Bridgewater provided.
Even if there is a middle ground between Bridgewater and Thompson, Hill could create something based on his speed alone.
Working with Huntley would provide some hope over the other options, but Hill is a boom-or-bust fantasy option without Tua.
Tennessee also allows a league-low 1.17 points per target to wide receivers to compound concerns.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle caught 4-of-5 targets for 26 yards on Sunday. His 2.2 air yards per target were the fewest he had in a game under McDaniel.
Waddle has been even more fragile than Hill without Tua on the field.
He has run 258 routes with Tua sidelines under McDaniel, averaging 1.31 yards per route with a 15.3% target rate.
Waddle also gets added hope of transitioning to Huntley but is still a volatile fantasy option for gamers as a WR3/FLEX.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley caught 1-of-3 targets for 9 yards against Green Bay.
We are in the same boat with Ridley to open this season when we left in Jacksonville last year.
He has opened the year as WR52 (3-50-0), WR6 (4-77-1 with a rushing TD), and WR102 (1-9-0).
25.0% of his targets have been inaccurate. That rate was 18.4% in Jacksonville.
It does not help that 43.8% of Ridley’s targets have been deep targets. No receiver with as many targets as Ridley has a higher rate.
Forced to live on targets that come with volatility, Ridley joins the theme here as a boom-or-bust WR3, but there is matchup upside here.
Miami has allowed 4 receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield (27th) if Ridley can cash one in.
They also allow 10.7 yards per target to outside wide receivers, which is 30th in the league.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins had his best game of the season on Sunday, catching 6-of-7 targets for 73 yards and his first touchdown.
Hopkins was still limited to running a route on only 50% of the dropbacks, but he was targeted on 31.8% of his routes.
Hopkins and Levis did have a connection to close last season, so if we can get his playing time back up to that of a full-time player, he would be back in play as more than a matchup-based FLEX.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo has 7 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown to start the season.
His playing time is way down this season, running a route on 51.3% of the dropbacks compared to 69.8% last season.
Outside of hoping to catch a touchdown, Okonkwo is a limited fantasy option.
Miami TEs: This remained a split between Jonnu Smith (16 routes), Durham Smythe (10), and Julian Hill (10) while Tanner Conner also ran 7 routes.
Hill led the group with 24 yards in the game, and Smith led the unit with 3 targets.
Over the opening three weeks, Smith leads the tight ends with 9 catches for 78 yards.
Outside of single-game DFS, all of these tight ends are touchdown-or-bust options.
More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Cowboys @ Giants -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
Broncos @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Saints @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Steelers @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Bengals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Patriots @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Chiefs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Bills @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
Titans @ Dolphins -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
Seahawks @ Lions -- FREE | Monday Night Football |