The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Jets.

Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

NY JetsRank@BuffaloRank
7.0 Spread-7.0
16.75 Implied Total23.75
16.030Points/Gm26.28
19.17Points All./Gm18.45
60.027Plays/Gm61.720
66.728Opp. Plays/Gm61.16
4.728Off. Yards/Play6.03
4.63Def. Yards/Play5.424
36.67%28Rush%41.17%20
63.33%5Pass%58.83%13
48.33%29Opp. Rush %40.92%12
51.67%4Opp. Pass %59.08%21

  • The Bills are 0-6 against the spread over their past six games, the longest active streak against the spread.
  • The Bills are 0-3 against the spread against the Jets since the start of last season.
  • Since Week 5, the Bills are 30th in defensive EPA (-41.3 points).
  • Over that same span, the Jets are first in defensive EPA (50.5 points).
  • Games involving the Jets are averaging a league-low 35.1 combined points per game.
  • The Jets have allowed 18 passing plays of 20 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
  • The Jets are averaging 1.17 points per drive, 31st in the league.
  • The Jets are allowing 1.48 points per drive, fourth in the league.
  • The Jets have scored a touchdown on 7.3% of their drives (zero of the past 35 drives), the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Bills have converted 49.2% of their third downs this season, second in the league.
  • The Jets have converted a league-low 25.0% of their third downs. The league average is 39.0%.
  • The Jets have converted 6-of-24 (25.0%) of their third downs needing three or fewer yards. The league average is 59.3%.
  • The Jets have converted 5-of-22 (22.7%) red zone possessions for touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 53.8%.
  • The Bills have converted 70.3% (26-of-37) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, third in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen had his lowest-scoring finish (QB15) in a week since the season opener.

On Monday night, Allen completed a season-low 57.7% of his passes for 177 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. It was his sixth consecutive game with an interception.

With 6.8 yards per pass attempt, Allen has failed to throw for 7.0 Y/A in four of his past five games.

Allen did add a rushing touchdown to bolster his output, his fourth straight game with a score on the ground. It was the seventh time over his past eight games that he found the end zone on the ground.

The Bills made Ken Dorsey the scapegoat after the game and elevated Joe Brady to offensive coordinator.

He and Allen will have their immediate work cut out for them as this Jets defense has given this offense issues.

In three games against the Jets since the start of last season, Allen has completed 61.8% of his passes for just 5.8 Y/A with two passing touchdowns and five interceptions.

His 63.7 rating against the Jets is his lowest against any opponent he has faced multiple times over that span.

When these teams played in Week 1, Allen was QB23, scoring a season-low 9.0 points.

The Jets have allowed just one top-10 quarterback this season, which was Jalen Hurts in Week 6. Hurts had 10.7 rushing points in that game to get there.

Allen can get points on the ground.

The Jets have allowed a league-high 30.6 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, including 36 yards to Allen in Week 1.

Allen is tough to stream for given his upside and rushing ability, but this is a week where we should be cautious on anticipating a spike week.

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