The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
|28.99%||1||Opp. Rush %||40.88%||11|
|71.01%||32||Opp. Pass %||59.12%||22|
- Kansas City has had five straight games go under the game total, the longest active streak in the league.
- The Chiefs have held their opponents to 46.0 points below their implied total, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored 42.5 points below their implied total this season, 30th in the league.
- The Eagles have scored on 48.4% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- The Eagles are averaging a league-high 5.0 scoring plays per game.
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 2.7 scoring plays per game.
- 71.9% (23-of-32) of the scoring plays against the Eagles have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 7.6 yards per play on third downs.
- The Eagles are allowing 6.6 yards per play on third down, 31st in the league.
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 3.0 yards per play on third downs.
- The Chiefs have scored on 54.9% of their drives in the first half of games this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Kansas City has scored on 25.0% of their drives in the second half of games, ahead of only the Patriots (23.6%) and Cardinals (20.0%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Jalen Hurts: Hurts comes out of the bye with six straight weeks as a top-five scoring fantasy quarterback.
He has completed over 70% of his passes with more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt in each of his past three games. That includes completing 17-of-23 passes for 207 yards with two touchdowns against the Cowboys.
Hurts has had two weeks to recover from a clunky knee issue, but when we last saw him in Week 9, he rushed 10 times for 36 yards and another sneak for a touchdown.
We are locking in Hurts as a front-end fantasy option, but this will be another test out of the bye.
This Kansas City defense has been hot this season.
They are allowing opponents to complete 60.6% of their passes (sixth) for 6.1 Y/A (third), but they have allowed a 4.2% touchdown rate (22nd).
They were hot to close last season and then faced Hurts.
We are getting a rematch from last year’s Super Bowl.
In that game. Hurts was 27-of-38 for 304 yards with a touchdown through the air, rushing 15 times for 70 yards and three touchdowns.
We do not have Shane Steichen on board here, but in that game, the Chiefs played man coverage on 36.4% of Hurts’ dropbacks and blitzed him on 35.7% of his dropbacks.
Against man coverage, Hurts was 7-of-9 for 72 yards.
Against the blitz, Kansas City had more success. He was 10-of-15 but for 79 yards (5.3 Y/A).
When the Chiefs did not blitz and played zone coverage, Hurts was 15-of-19 for 199 yards and his touchdown.
This season, the Chiefs are playing man coverage on 31.8% of passing snaps, sixth in the league. They are blitzing 27.0% of the time, which is 12th.
This year, Hurts has thrown for 7.6 Y/A under pressure (third) but is 25th in the league with an 82.8 rating against the blitz.
Given their success in the Super Bowl and where Hurts has performed his worst this season, the Chiefs should dial up more blitzes on Monday.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has been inside of the top-10 scorers for fantasy in just two of his past six starts. He has one top-three-scoring week this season.
He is averaging a career-low 7.3 Y/A, 10.7 yards per completion, 50.0% success rate, and has a career-high 2.4% interception rate.
We still have half of a season to play, and all of these things can revert to his career output, but Mahomes is exiting the bye with slightly subpar output based on the bar he has set for all of his career success.
That said, he still has just two weeks in the back half of weekly scoring. His standards are just immense.
We are not running away from Mahomes as a QB1 in fantasy.
Playing on a hurt ankle in this matchup in the Super Bowl, Mahomes was 21-of-27 for 182 yards with three touchdowns, adding 44 yards rushing.
This Philadelphia pass defense has been softer in 2023.
They have allowed a 66.6% completion rate (21st), 6.9 Y/A (16th), and a 5.3% touchdown rate (28th).
The past two quarterbacks that they have faced, Sam Howell and Dak Prescott closed those weeks as the QB1 (30.9 points) and QB2 (28.4 points) in fantasy.
The Eagles are playing a lot more man coverage this season at 30.9% of dropbacks, which is seventh in the league.
When Mahomes is getting man coverage, he has still been elite.
Against man coverage, Mahomes is averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt (second) with nine touchdowns (tied for first) and a 123.7 rating (third). If Philadelphia gets aggressive here, Mahomes can have a spike week on par with Howell and Prescott.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco posted his two lowest fantasy scores of the season before the Kansas City bye week.
After rushing for 115 yards against the Jets in Week 4, Pacheco has not rushed for more than 66 yards in a game since.
The larger the sample we flesh out this season, the more prominent it stands out that Pacheco needs to find the end zone.
In his five games without a touchdown, he has been the RB30, RB29, RB14, RB39, and RB34.
In his weeks with a score, he has been the RB12, RB6, RB14, and RB11.
He will need to find the end zone here because the Eagles have been dominant against the run this season.
They are allowing 3.63 yards per carry (seventh) to running backs and a league-low 6.6 rushing points per game to the position.
Running backs have scored just 18.5% of the points allowed by the Eagles, the lowest rate in the league.
Pacheco is a touchdown-dependent option on the RB2/FLEX line.
D’Andre Swift: Swift is another back that comes out of the bye with meandering results of late running the football.
Since Week 4, Swift is 32nd in yards per carry (3.4 YPC) out of 39 running backs with 50 or more carries. He is 38th among that group in explosive run rate (2.2%).
Swift has not been an RB1 since Week 6, and we have seen Kenneth Gainwell come in and steal a few scoring opportunities in recent games.
But Swift is sustaining RB2 output for fantasy because he still is controlling the bulk of the work in this backfield.
Despite his inefficiency, Swift has 17 or more touches in eight straight games, averaging 20.4 touches per game over that stretch.
Kansas City has allowed 4.63 YPC to running backs (31st), but they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season.
They have allowed just three touchdowns on the ground to running backs, but both Javonte Williams and Raheem Mostert scored against them in the past two games.
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A.J. Brown: Brown has his streak of consecutive 125-yard games snap before the bye, but he still caught 7-of-9 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown against Dallas.
Brown is second in the NFL in target share (32.4%) and first in share of air yards (48.4%).
Brown rests at the front of the position for fantasy, but this will be another matchup to note like the one he had before the bye.
The Chiefs are third in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (11.7), which includes holding Tyreek Hill to 62 yards in their last game. Justin Jefferson only had three catches for 28 yards before he left the game against the Chiefs.
We highlighted how the Chiefs play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league.
Brown has eviscerated man coverage this season.
He leads the NFL with a 48.1% target share against man coverage for 3.88 yards per route run.
Brown only ran 10 routes against man coverage in the Super Bowl last season but caught all three of his targets for 40 yards.