The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Ravens and Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 20.2 | 20 | Points/Gm | 27.0 | 5 |
| 21.3 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 15.7 | 1 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 18 |
| 63.1 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 25 |
| 4.9 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 6 |
| 6.1 | 31 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.2 | 1 |
| 33.39% | 31 | Rush% | 51.27% | 1 |
| 66.61% | 2 | Pass% | 48.73% | 32 |
| 42.78% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 37.31% | 7 |
| 57.22% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 62.69% | 26 |
- Since drafting him in 2018, the Ravens are 7-1 against the Bengals when Lamar Jackson has started and 0-3 without him.
- The past five games involving the Bengals are averaging 754.0 combined yards per game, second most in the NFL.
- 75.2% of Cincinnati's yardage has been gained via passing, second in the NFL.
- The Bengals are averaging 61.4 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
- The Ravens are averaging 54.4 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, fifth in the league.
- Cincinnati is allowing 6.8 yards per play on first down, 31st in the league.
- Baltimore is allowing a league-low 1.23 points per possession.
- The Ravens are the only remaining team yet to run a play trailing by double-digit points.
- 22.6% of the drives against Baltimore have reached the red zone or scored prior, fourth in the league.
- 34.7% of the drives against the Bengals have reached the red zone or scored prior, 30th in the league.
- The Bengals have now allowed a first down or a touchdown every 3.1 plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Cincinnati has averaged 4.5 yards per play and 266.0 yards per game on offense in four games against Baltimore the past two seasons.
- The Bengals have averaged 5.4 yards per play and 348.9 yards per game against everyone else over that span.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow continued to deliver for fantasy last week, posting his third straight top-10 game and fourth in five weeks.
It was not as clean as previous weeks, but Burrow threw for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns, his fifth consecutive game with multiple passing scores.
This week, Burrow will put his hot stretch to the test as he draws a Baltimore defense that has given him issues since the start of last season under Mike Macdonald.
In four games against those defenses, Burrow has thrown for just 5.8 yards per pass attempt with a game-high of 6.5 Y/A in that sample.
His 3.3% touchdown rate in those games is the second-lowest rate that Burrow has against an opponent he has faced multiple times over the past two seasons.
The Ravens have taken an extremely cautious approach with Burrow in these three matchups.
They played man coverage for 19.3% of his dropbacks and blitzed him on just 11 total dropbacks. They played quarters or Cover-6 on 36.2% of those dropbacks.
When Baltimore has blitzed Burrow on a minuscule sample, he has completed 7-of-10 passes for 91 yards (9.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Ravens have allowed just one QB1 scoring week this season, and it was to Josh Dobbs as the QB12 in a week in which he added 8.6 rushing points.
Burrow is producing so strongly of late that he is tough to move away from for a streamer in 1QB leagues, but this is not a spot where I would anticipate a spike week.
Lamar Jackson (TRUST): Speaking of spike weeks, we have hit a drought with Jackson delivering one.
Over the past three weeks, Jackson has been QB26, QB17, and QB18 in weekly scoring.
He has faced two of the tougher pass defenses in the league in Seattle and Cleveland the past two weeks, but that also includes a matchup against Arizona in which he threw for a season-low 5.8 yards per pass attempt.
Jackson is coming off season lows in completions (13) and completion rate (56.5%) against Cleveland last week.
From a positive stance, he is running into a Jekyll and Hyde Cincinnati pass defense that could be missing both Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson up front.
We only have a small sample of 43 dropbacks without both Hubbard and Hendrickson on the field this season, but passers are 30-of-40 (75.0%) for 443 yards (11.1 Y/A) on those dropbacks.
The Bengals are allowing a 62.8% completion rate (11th) and a 3.3% touchdown rate (eighth), but they are allowing 7.9 Y/A (30th) and 12.5 yards per completed pass (31st). When they are giving up plays, they are chunk gains.
Jackson was the QB9 (22.9 points) when these teams played in Week 2, completing 24-of-33 passes for 237 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jackson added 54 yards on 12 carries rushing.
Outside of allowing those rushing yards to Jackson, the Bengals have allowed 5.7 rushing points to Brock Purdy, 10.4 rushing points to Josh Allen, and 6.8 rushing points to C.J. Stroud the past three weeks.
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Mixon only managed 45 yards on 13 touches Sunday, but he was able to salvage his afternoon some by getting into the end zone for the third straight game.
After his 110-yard breakout game against San Francisco in Week 8, Mixon has totaled 113 yards in the past two weeks.
This running game has still yet to consistently show up this season, but one thing we can count on weekly is that Mixon does not have a threat in this backfield for opportunities.
After 92.9% of backfield touches on Sunday, Mixon leads all running backs with 87.6% of his backfield touches this season.
Mixon had 17 touches for 95 yards when these teams played in Week 2, rushing 13 times for 59 yards and catching four passes for 36 yards.
Baltimore is allowing 4.28 YPC to backs (23rd) to keep Mixon on the table as a volume-based option on the RB1/RB2 line.
Ravens RBs: This is morphing into a three-way committee with the emergence of Keaton Mitchell.
Gus Edwards still led this group in snaps (28) and touches (12) last week, but he only managed 28 yards. Edwards was able to tie down a usable FLEX week by finding the end zone for the sixth time over the past three weeks.
Near the end zone is where Edwards has the largest appeal in retaining fantasy value with his usage waning.
Edwards leads this backfield with 14 touches in goal-to-go situations, cashing in seven of them for scores.
Edwards remains a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
Justice Hill had a touchdown come off the board due to a penalty, but he only played 14 snaps (25.9%), his lowest rate in a game in which he was not injured. Hill had two touches for seven yards.
Mitchell only played 13 snaps and handled four touches, but with another 66 yards and his second touchdown in as many weeks, his juice is apparent in this offense.
Mitchell’s first touch of the game went for a 39-yard touchdown in which he was not touched, just evaporating angles from defenders.
Over the past two weeks, Mitchell has a league-high 150 rushing yards on four runs of 10 or more yards.
This is a De’Von Achane-type of impact over a small sample, and Baltimore is going to continue to find opportunities for Mitchell moving forward. Given Hill’s season-low in usage last week, he would be the player that Mitchell relegates.
Mitchell does not have a single opportunity in goal-to-go situations, so he is still a splash-play-dependent FLEX.
If you are hoping that he continues to cash in long gains, this is a good spot.
The Bengals have allowed an explosive gain on a league-high 16.6% of opponent rushing attempts, surrendering a league-high 4.4 runs per game of 10 or more yards.
Our annual free week has wrapped up, and we hope you didn't miss out! During this free week promotion (since the start of November) our computer totals went 7-2 (78%), our elevated plays went 13-5 (72%) and overall, we went 31-23 (57%). For the season, a $100 bettor on our standard unit size release is up $3,558. We want everyone to stay on board, so we're offering an enormous discount for a limited time. Use code TAKE60 to get an astonishing 60% off our NFL+ package now! It's not too good to be true, but will end soon. Click here to learn more.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase: Playing through a sore back, Chase was still on the field for 91.5% of the team dropbacks but had a season-low six targets on Sunday.
He made the most of those opportunities, however, catching five of them for 124 yards and his fifth touchdown of the season, a 64-yard strike.
Chase has had to work for his output against this defense while Macdonald has been in Baltimore. He has had games of 7-50-0 (12 targets), 8-86-1 (13 targets), 9-84-1 (12 targets), and 5-31-0 (eight targets) in those matchups.
We will still gladly take the target opportunity and see where the results land for Chase as a WR1.
The results were not there for Chase when these teams played in Week 2, but he did play a season-high 30.4% of his snaps in the slot in that game.
Even with Tee Higgins out last week, Chase was in the slot 24.0% of the time, so there is a path for him to move around still without Higgins expected to play again this week.
The Ravens are coming off allowing six catches for 98 yards to Amari Cooper last week and are two weeks removed from allowing 13 catches for 102 yards to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
