The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the 49ers and Bills on Sunday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 26.25 | ||
| 23.6 | 13 | Points/Gm | 29.1 | 3 |
| 23.6 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 7 |
| 61.0 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 26 |
| 60.1 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 15 |
| 6.3 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 10 |
| 5.1 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 46.65% | 10 | Rush% | 46.37% | 11 |
| 53.35% | 23 | Pass% | 53.63% | 22 |
| 43.72% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 40.30% | 9 |
| 56.28% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 59.70% | 24 |
- Buffalo leads the NFL in turnover differential (+14).
- 47.3% of Buffalo's possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills average a league-high 3.57 points per drive at home.
- San Francisco is 5-2 in games in which they have scored first compared to 0-4 in games where the opponent scores first.
- The 49ers have averaged 1.86 points per possession (20th) over their past four games after 2.34 prior (7th).
- San Francisco allows 2.22 points per drive (24th) after 1.44 points per drive in 2023 (3rd).
- Buffalo has outscored their opponents by 84 points (163-79) in the second half this season, the largest margin in the league.
- The 49ers have a -41 points differential (61-102) in the fourth quarter, 31st in the league.
- Only 5.8% of the passing plays against the Bills have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen comes out of the bye as the QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.3).
He has been a QB1 scorer in five of his past six games, and he still scored 19.8 points in the one week he was not.
You are playing Allen as a front-end QB1, but a few moving parts here may alter how you approach him in DFS or terms of ceiling expectations.
The first is the state of his pass catchers.
Allen has thrown 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions in the past two games with a rotating receiver room outside Khalil Shakir.
He has only thrown for 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those weeks.
But the state of his pass catchers has forced him to use his legs more.
Allen has rushed for 50 and 55 yards in the past two games with a touchdown in each.
He had just one game hitting 50 yards rushing in Weeks 1 through 9.
We also have the San Francisco side and the status for Nick Bosa.
The 49ers' pressure rate is 38.8% with Bosa on the field compared to 28.0% without him.
They allow a 74.3% completion rate on the dropbacks with him off the field and 7.3 Y/A compared to a 60.2% completion rate and 6.4 Y/A with him on the field.
Lastly, there is some mild weather to keep tabs on.
We never go wild on weather speculation (see last Thursday’s game outcome), but it's something to follow.
The Bills are 20-7 with Allen in games below 40 degrees, but his rate stats drop.
He has a 60.4% completion rate and 6.9 Y/A in those games.
49ers QB: Brock Purdy did some throwing early to open this week, but we will have to follow his status.
If Purdy cannot play, the team said they will go to Brandon Allen again.
Without Purdy (and Trent Williams) on Sunday, the 49ers had one of their worst offensive games in the Kyle Shanahan era.
They had just 11 first downs, matching the fewest they have had in a game under Shanahan.
They had a 32.1% success rate on offense, the fourth-lowest rate in a game under Shanahan.
The -20.1 EPA on offense was their lowest since the 2022 NFC Championship when they ran out of quarterbacks capable of throwing the football.
If we get another week of Allen, he is only an option for 2QB gamers forced to fill a vacated roster spot.
If Purdy can play, we still have some concerns due to his injury, the matchup, and the potential weather, so I would rather play him in 2QB formats over 1QB leagues.
When Purdy last played in Week 11, the 49ers passing game was challenged.
Purdy threw for a season-low 5.7 yards per pass attempt with an interception.
He had a season-low 5.5 air yards per attempt with a season-low 21.4% of his throws 10 or more yards downfield.
Entering that game, he averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt with 40.6% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield.
If Purdy’s shoulder is still not 100%, and we get a cold-weather game, are the 49ers pushing the football downfield?
Buffalo has already been a tough matchup without those factors.
They are 9th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.369).
Only Lamar Jackson has finished higher than QB15 in a game against the Bills this season.
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bears @ Lions -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Giants @ Cowboys -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Dolphins @ Packers -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Raiders @ Chiefs -- FREE | Black Friday |
| Chargers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Ravens | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bills | Sunday Night Football |
| Browns @ Broncos -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
