The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Panthers and Buccaneers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | Spread | 6 | ||
| 26.25 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 28.1 | 4 | Points/Gm | 17.6 | 29 |
| 24.8 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 30.9 | 32 |
| 62.1 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 57.3 | 31 |
| 65.5 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 30 |
| 6 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 25 |
| 5.7 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 29 |
| 41.73% | 22 | Rush% | 41.27% | 23 |
| 58.27% | 11 | Pass% | 58.73% | 10 |
| 38.89% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 50.95% | 32 |
| 61.11% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 49.05% | 1 |
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 in games where they have scored first compared to 0-5 when the opponent scored first.
- Tampa Bay has converted 50.4% of their third downs (2nd) and 33.3% of their third-and-long downs, the highest rate in the league.
- Carolina has allowed opponents to convert a league-high 49.3% of their third downs.
- The Buccaneers have converted 69.8% (30-of-43) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 2nd in the NFL behind the Ravens (77.8%).
- The Panthers are allowing a league-high 2.75 points per drive.
- Tampa Bay averages 3.06 points per drive on possessions without a sack (2nd in the NFL) compared to 0.55 points per drive with a sack (30th).
- The Panthers are 31st in sack rate (4.9%) on defense.
- Carolina has allowed 30.2% of the passing plays against them to gain 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (TRUST): Mayfield connected on 24-of-30 (80%) passes for 294 yards (9.8 Y/A) on Sunday.
For the first time this season, he did not throw a touchdown pass, but he added 29 yards and a touchdown on the ground to propel him to a QB9 (18.7 points) week.
Mayfield has been a top-10 scorer in 8-of-11 games and has finished lower than QB13 just twice.
He rolls right into another great matchup this weekend.
Carolina is dead last in the league regarding pressure rate (22.2%).
When they have not gotten pressure, they have allowed a 75.8% completion rate (28th), 8.0 yards per pass attempt (25th), and a 5.7% touchdown rate (30th).
When Mayfield has not been pressured, he has completed 73.3% of his passes (11th) for 7.7 Y/A (15th), and a 7.3% touchdown rate (3rd).
Bryce Young: Young is coming off his best game of the season on Sunday, completing 21-of-35 (60%) throws for 263 yards and a touchdown.
He added 20 yards rushing to close the week with a season-high 16.5 fantasy points.
That point total is not enough to push Young into play as a streamer in 1QB formats in a week without byes, but that does give him an added pulse as a matchup-based option in 2QB formats.
What carries weight from Sunday here is that Young had a great game against the blitz.
He went 10-of-13 for 125 yards (9.6 Y/A) with a touchdown when blitzed on Sunday.
Entering Sunday, he was 25-of-42 (59.5%) for 213 yards (5.1 Y/A) with one touchdown when blitzed.
When these teams met a year ago, Todd Bowles blitzed Young on 60.9% and 57.1% of his dropbacks.
Those were the two highest rates that Young has been blitzed in a game over his early career.
Against the blitz in those games, Young was 13-of-28 (46.4%) for 116 yards (4.1 Y/A) and an interception, taking 5 sacks.
One extra note on the Bucs.
They did get Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum back last week.
With those two on the field this season, they have allowed an 87.2 rating to passers, allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 2.3% touchdown rate on 222 attempts.
On 186 attempts with either off the field this season, the Bucs have allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt and an 8.1% touchdown rate.
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bears @ Lions -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Giants @ Cowboys -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Dolphins @ Packers -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Raiders @ Chiefs -- FREE | Black Friday |
| Chargers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Ravens | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bills | Sunday Night Football |
| Browns @ Broncos -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
