Lions vs. Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 13

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Lions and Bears on Thanksgiving Day.

Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jared Goff: Goff attempted more than 30 passes for just the second time this season on Sunday.

Goff ended Sunday completing 26-of-36 passes (72.2%) for 7.5 yards per pass attempt, but he failed to throw a touchdown pass for only the second time this season.

Ironically, Goff’s two games this season with the most attempts are his only two weeks without a passing touchdown.

Goff enters Thursday second in the NFL in completion rate (72.9%), the league leader in yards per pass attempt (9.0 Y/A), and third in touchdown rate (6.5%).

While the top-down efficiency has been at the front of the league, the results have been a bit wonky for fantasy since Detroit has such a good running game near the end zone.

While Goff looks like this year’s Brock Purdy on the surface, he does not have the weekly stability Purdy had for gamers last season.

Goff’s season reminds me of recent Tua Tagovailoa seasons when Tua was among the league leaders in a handful of passing metrics but lived for fantasy as a feast-or-famine scorer.

Goff has only been a QB1 scorer in one of his past five games and has 7 weeks as the QB18 or lower.

You would not get that from his top-down metrics.

When Goff has hit for fantasy, he has hit big.

This is the best offense in the NFL, so you can catch one of those spike weeks at any moment.

Goff is best used as a floor-based QB2 here.

He has the potential to have a big week, but I understand trepidation about taking what comes weekly from him in 1QB leagues.

The Bears have strong stats against the pass.

Chicago has allowed a 62.9% completion rate (8th) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (5th) to passers, which has led to them allowing 10.7 passing points per game (3rd).

But as we have seen in the past two weeks, they can allow some yardage.

In Week 11, Jordan Love threw for 15.4 yards per pass attempt against the Bears.

This past week, Sam Darnold threw for 9.7 Y/A while only connecting on two passes to Justin Jefferson.

The Bears have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which is 26th in the league.

Chicago gave Goff some issues last year.

In two games against the Bears, he connected on 61.4% of his passes for only 5.7 yards per pass.

He threw 5 interceptions in those games.

This is another Cover 3 heavy opponent for this team, something they are no stranger to.

The Bears have played Cover 3 on 43.0% of passing plays, fifth in the league.

Goff is second in the NFL in dropbacks against Cover 3 this season (158).

On those plays, he has completed 75% of his passes (5th) for 9.3 Y/A (7th) and a 4.7% touchdown rate (5th).

Caleb Williams: Williams and this passing game have responded positively to the transition to Thomas Brown as the new offensive coordinator.

Over the past two weeks, Williams has completed 70.5% of his passes (10th) for 7.3 Y/A (19th) with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

While those numbers are not blowing anyone away, this offense was rudderless and had 1 touchdown over the three games before the coaching change.

Brown has emphasized a shorter passing game and getting the ball out.

Williams has thrown the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 19.4% and 29.8% of his passes the past two weeks.

That rate was 13.7% in Weeks 8-10.

54,8% of his passes have been within 2.5 seconds of the snap, sixth in the NFL over the past two weeks.

Under Shane Waldron, that rate was 40.4%, 25th in the league.

Through both coordinators, Williams has protected the ball of late.

He has not thrown an interception since the bye (173 passes) and has thrown 1 interception over his last 254 attempts.

We have seen flashes from Williams this season when making challenging plays.

We know there is talent here.

He is coming off completing 32-of-47 passes for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Vikings.

His work will be cut out again this week, leaving him as a volatile QB2.

Detroit is another opponent that forces the pass, but they have stronger metrics.

The Lions face 36.0 pass attempts per game (fourth most) but have also allowed the fewest passing points per attempt in the league (0.275).

Detroit has not allowed more than 1 touchdown pass in a game this season despite all of that passing script while allowing 6.7 Y/A (9th).

The Lions are playing aggressively, playing man coverage on a league-high 40.6% of passing plays.

Williams has completed 53.1% of his passes (26th) for 5.1 Y/A (33rd) against man coverage this season.

Even post-Waldron, that is 5.4 Y/A the past two weeks against man coverage (26th).

What that aggressiveness can do is allow Williams to use his feet.

Williams has rushed for 70 and 33 yards in the past two weeks.

Detroit has allowed 3.5 rushing points per game to quarterbacks (23rd).

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Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has been one of the most efficient players in the league this season.

He is averaging 6.4 yards per touch, third among running backs.

His 1.2 PPR points per touch are second at the position.

If Gibbs runs into a high workload, his ceiling spikes.

We had another glimpse of that Sunday after David Montgomery was forced from the game with a shoulder injury.

With Monty banged up, Gibbs racked up a season-high 24 touches for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns.

After Montgomery left the game, Gibbs handled 12-of-13 backfield touches.

The early word is that Montgomery will be good to go for Thursday, but if he were held out by any chance, Gibbs would have one of the best fantasy situations in the league and could be bumped up to the RB1 overall this week.

In the three games that Montgomery missed last season, Gibbs handled 18, 20, and 31 touches for 22.2 fantasy points per game.

Even if Monty is good to go, a short week and potentially less than 100% could lead to more touches for Gibbs as an efficiency-based RB1.

Chicago has not played the run well this season.

The Bears have allowed 4.89 YPC to running backs (28th) while allowing 140.4 yards from scrimmage per game to backfields (22nd).

They have been roughed up in back-to-back weeks by Aaron Jones (129 yards and a touchdown) and Josh Jacobs (134 yards and a touchdown).

David Montgomery: Montgomery was forced to leave Sunday’s game due to a shoulder injury, but he had 73 yards and a touchdown on 11 touches before his exit.

We brought this up last week, but Monty has been far more active as a pass catcher this season.

He had 3 catches for 36 yards before leaving the game on Sunday.

He already has more catches (24) and yards (241) than he did all of last season (16 for 117 yards).

Gibbs has 26 catches for 265 yards.

Montgomery comes with some added volatility this week due to his shoulder injury should he play, but he still is a touchdown-centric RB2 in the best offense in the league at home as a huge favorite.

We already laid out Chicago's issues with backfields this season.

Running backs have scored 50% of the touchdowns allowed by the Bears (tied for the fourth-highest rate).

D’Andre Swift: Swift found little room to run as expected on Sunday, rushing 13 times for 30 yards (2.3 YPC).

He was able to add three receptions for 35 yards to smooth out what he could.

Swift also lost another goal-line rush to Roschon Johnson, which has been a major thorn.

Johnson leads the backfield with 9 touches inside the five-yard line and has out-touched Swift 6-to-3 at the one-yard line.

51.7% of Johnson’s fantasy points are from touchdowns, so he is only a touchdown-or-bust play.

However, he has been a roadblock for using Swift more than RB2/FLEX, especially in these tougher matchups.

Detroit is allowing 4.0 YPC to running backs (8th) with a 70% success rate against running back runs (2nd).

Detroit allows 92.4 yards from scrimmage per game to backfields, which is second in the NFL.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown grabbed 6-of-7 targets for 62 yards on Sunday.

He had his eight-game touchdown streak snapped.

A week after exploding for highest-scoring game of the year, Sunday was more in line with what we have seen from St. Brown this season.

He has hit 70 yards in a game thrice this season while averaging 10.5 yards per catch, his fewest since his rookie season.

He still commands the most significant chunk of this passing game, so there is no running away from his viability as a fantasy WR1. Still, he has been more dependent on those touchdowns than in previous seasons.

St. Brown has 28.3% of the Detroit targets (WR5) with a target on 26.3% of his routes (WR11).

Chicago does pose as much of a threat as any opponent so far.

The Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WR1 targets (10.1 per game) and are coming off limiting Justin Jefferson to 27 yards on two catches on Sunday.

In two games against the Bears last year, St. Brown had 8-77-1 (11 targets) and 3-21-0 (8 targets).

Jameson Williams: Williams stayed active on Sunday, catching 5-of-7 targets for 64 yards.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 10, Williams has had 20.8%, 19.4%, and 21.2% of the team targets.

With his explosive playmaking, those are strong target counts with consistency.

Williams had only 10.8% of the team targets in his four games before suspension.

That type of volume has given Williams a higher floor in his return to the lineup while he still has the big-play ability as an upside WR2/WR3.

Williams is second on the team in target rate per route against Cover 3 (17.9%), and his 2.35 yards per route run is right on the heels of St. Brown’s (2.49 YRR).

The Bears have allowed big games the past two weeks to wide receivers who can win downfield: Jordan Addison (8-162-1) and Christian Watson (4-150-0).

For as good as the Bears have been against WR1 targets, they still have allowed 8.9 yards per target (21st) and a 5.6% touchdown rate (20th) to outside receivers.

D.J. Moore: Moore has shown some signs of life the past two weeks after the coordinator change, posting games of 7-62-0 and 7-106-1 without an incomplete target in his direction.

Moore has been the target who has garnered all of Williams's increased throwing of short-area targets.

In the past two games, Moore has a target depth of 0.86 and 3.57 yards downfield.

42.9% of his targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage after an 18.2% rate before the coaching change.

Moore has been out-targeted by both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze the past two weeks, but that change in usage has given him a better floor than those two wideouts.

Moore has more yards than both on the strength of 0% inaccurate targets. Allen is at 13.0% and Odunze is at 35%.

Moore has found some footing as a WR3 option with a higher floor in full-PPR formats.

The Lions face a league-high 25.1 targets per game to wide receivers, so there is volume potential here.

From a ceiling perspective, Moore's concern is that Detroit has allowed a league-low 2.2% touchdown rate to receivers and has been better on the outside, where Moore has still played 79% of his snaps since the changes.

The Lions allow 7.0 yards per target (third) and a 2.0% touchdown rate (third) to outside receivers.

Moore has also been targeted on 3.8% of his routes against man coverage under Thomas Brown compared to 18.0% against zone coverage.

Keenan Allen: Allen had his best game of the season on Sunday, catching 9-of-15 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown.

Allen leads the Chicago wide receivers in target rate per route (22.1%) and has sported target rates of 25.8% and 31.9% since the coaching change.

Allen has been unable to translate his volume into consistent fantasy weeks, but he will have the largest signal among the Chicago wide receivers as a WR3 option in this matchup.

We mentioned all of the man coverage that Detroit has run.

Allen has been targeted on 28.2% of his routes against man coverage compared to a 19.5% rate against zone coverage.

He has been targeted on 46.2% of his routes in the past two games against man coverage.

Allen has also played a team-high 49% of his snaps in the slot for the past two weeks and 50.1% for the season.

Detroit has still not allowed many touchdowns to slot receivers, allowing a 2.5% touchdown rate, but they have allowed 8.6 yards per target (22nd) to those interior receivers.

Slot receivers have 7.3 receptions per game against Detroit, the most in the league.

Rome Odunze: Odunze did not pop for gamers last week (5-39-0), but he did receive another 10 targets.

Odunze has double-digit targets in back-to-back games.

He has 24.2% of the team targets since their Week 7 bye (with a low game of 19.4%) after a 16.6% rate before the bye.

That target spike has put Odunze in play as an upside WR3/FLEX, but the types of targets he is getting have made him more volatile than the other Chicago wideouts.

Odunze leads the team with 22.9% of his targets on deep targets.

For some context, Jameson Williams is at 18.8%.

That has led to Odunze's team-high 27.1% inaccurate target rate, which has been 35% in the past two weeks.

He has the most upside per target if hunting for a home run in Thursday DFS, but Detroit has allowed a 32.6% catch rate (15-of-46) on deep targets to wide receivers, 11th in the league.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta: LaPorta returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing Week 11.

He caught 3-of-6 targets for 19 yards, more of the same up-and-down production gamers have expected this season.

The positive news is that LaPorta had no restrictions.

He was on the field for 85% of the dropbacks.

If looking for another glass-half-full approach, his 18.2% target share was his fourth straight game at 15% or higher after being in single digits in four of his first six games this season.

LaPorta is still someone gamers play for offensive attachment rather than consistency this season.

We have seen the Bears allow some spike weeks to tight ends as part of their extension of limiting opposing WR1 targets, allowing T.J. Hockenson (7-114-0), Zach Ertz (7-77-0), and Evan Engram (10-102-0) to stack receptions.

Cole Kmet: Kmet caught 7-of-10 targets for 64 yards on Sunday.

He had only had six catches for 69 yards over his past four games.

His 21.3% target share was his highest in a game since Week 3.

Kmet’s playing time has never wavered over his slump, running a route on at least 80% of the dropbacks in six of his past seven games.

If you are chasing last week’s box score in Thursday's DFS slate, you at least know Kmet will be out there.

It is just a matter of steady targets keeping him as a TE2, something we have yet to achieve.

This season, we have not seen Kmet get 15% of the team targets in back-to-back games.

The Lions allow a league-low 5.5 yards per target to tight ends with one touchdown to the position.

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