The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Bengals and Steelers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 22.9 | 14 | Points/Gm | 27.0 | 6 |
| 16.9 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 26.9 | 28 |
| 65.5 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 14 |
| 58.2 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 28 |
| 5 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 11 |
| 5.2 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 17 |
| 52.29% | 2 | Rush% | 36.46% | 27 |
| 47.71% | 31 | Pass% | 63.54% | 6 |
| 39.22% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 45.75% | 20 |
| 60.78% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 54.25% | 13 |
- The Bengals have only trailed for 32.2% of their offensive snaps, fourth in the league.
- 40% of the drives against the Steelers have failed to gain a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
- 29.1% of the Bengals' drives have failed to gain a first down or touchdown, which is 10th in the league.
- The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on early downs, 31st in the league.
- 52.5% of Pittsburgh's set of downs reach third down, 30th in the league.
- The Bengals have converted 69.7% (22-of-33) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, third in the NFL.
- The Steelers have converted 44.7% (17-of-38) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, ahead of only the Cowboys (42.9%) and Giants (38.7%).
- The Bengals have allowed a 70.6% red zone touchdown rate (24-of-34), 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow is coming out of the bye off three straight games as a top-three scorer.
Getting Tee Higgins back before the bye was a significant development for Burrow.
He has played six games with Higgins available.
With Higgins on the field, Burrow has averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
On 238 dropbacks with Higgins off the field, Burrow has averaged 6.4 Y/A.
That is the difference between third in the NFL and 30th.
Burrow's touchdown rate is still 5.6% without Higgins, but it climbs to 7.8% with Higgins on the field.
With or without Higgins, this will be a test.
Burrow’s last three games have come against the Raiders, Ravens, and Chargers.
We have targeted the Raiders and Ravens regularly this season, and we entered that Charger matchup skeptical about how good their pass defense was.
The last front-end pass defense Burrow has faced was the Eagles in Week 8.
Higgins did not play in that game, but Burrow was QB24 (12.9 points).
We have a good idea that the Pittsburgh pass defense is stout.
The Steelers are third in completion rate allowed (61.5%), 13th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.9), and second in touchdown rate allowed (2.5%).
They have not allowed a QB1 scorer this season, which includes Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson.
Burrow has not faced the Steelers since the 2022 season, but he does have three straight QB1 scoring weeks in this rivalry.
You are starting Burrow regardless even while respecting the Pittsburgh defense.
It will be interesting to see how aggressively the Pittsburgh defense plays things.
The Steelers are third in the NFL in rate of man coverage (38.9%) over the past six weeks.
They are sixth in rate of Cover 1 (27.5%) on passing plays for the season.
Burrow has seen man coverage on 26.4% of his dropbacks with Higgins on the field.
He is averaging 8.6 Y/A on those plays with a 17.6% touchdown rate.
Russell Wilson: It wasn’t the prettiest game to watch (well, aesthetically, the environment was cool), but Wilson’s numbers were respectable in the snow last Thursday night.
He completed 21-of-28 (75%) passes for 270 yards (9.6 Y/A) with a touchdown.
Wilson has opened up his run with the Steelers as QB3 (24.9 points), QB21 (13.8 points), QB10 (18.1 points), QB27 (6.3 points), and QB17 (13.8 points).
While Wilson is a volatile QB2, there is a path for this game to be higher scoring and play for an upside outcome.
This is similar to what we had with Wilson as an up-and-down fantasy asset with Denver last season.
We have chased the Steelers potentially being pushed a couple of times, but this team has thrown the ball 9% below expectations under Wilson.
That rate is 13% below expectations on first downs.
The hope is that Cincinnati’s offense pushes the Steelers to throw, or the Bengals pass defense coaxes Arthur Smith to throw.
The Bengals are allowing 15.4 passing points per game (26th).
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bears @ Lions -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Giants @ Cowboys -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Dolphins @ Packers -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Raiders @ Chiefs -- FREE | Black Friday |
| Chargers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Ravens | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bills | Sunday Night Football |
| Browns @ Broncos -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
