Packers vs. Dolphins Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 13

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Packers and Dolphins on Thanksgiving Day.

Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa: Tua is heading to Green Bay with back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks.

He has overtaken the league lead with a 73.3% completion rate, but Miami has constricted their passing offense. 

Tua has thrown a league-high 32.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. The league average is 22.6%.

His previous career high is 27.3%.

Just 25.4% of his passes have been 10 or more yards downfield, ahead of only Gardner Minshew (23.2%).

Last season, Tagovailoa was at 35.5% of those throws.

Just 7.8% have been thrown 20 or more yards downfield, ahead of only Patrick Mahomes (7.3%).

In 2023, that rate was 11.4%.

Miami has struggled to run the ball this season, and the short passing game has been their primary approach, even more so than in previous seasons.

Tua has taken care of business for fantasy in back-to-back games in spots we highlighted with strong team totals as a home favorite against soft pass defenses.

All those things change this week, so I will go back to Tua as a more floor-based QB2 and soak up any spike week that happens to play out.

Green Bay has allowed 12.0 passing points per game (9th). 

You have surely heard about this game being played in temperatures expected to be in the 20s.

Tua is 0-4 as a starter in temperatures below 40 degrees, completing 54.5% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

That narrative is a small sample and has some noise.

Last year's playoff game in Kansas City was below zero against a front-end pass defense.

In his other game under Mike McDaniel below 40 degrees, the Dolphins lost 29-32 in Buffalo with Tua throwing for 234 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

If there is an out for Tua turning around the narrative about his performance in cold weather, it is that short passing game. 

The Packers are a pass defense that has relied on pressure, which is hard to apply to Tua because of the short passes.

Tagovailoa has been pressured on a league-low 20.9% of his dropbacks because he releases the ball 2.32 seconds after the snap, the quickest in the league.

When they have pressured the opposing passer, the Packers allow a league-low 4.3 Y/A.

Without pressure, they have allowed 8.2 Y/A, which falls to 27th.

Jordan Love: The Packers have come out of the bye as a run-centric offense.

Over the past two weeks, Green Bay has been 7% and 15% below pass rate expectations.

As a result, Love has only thrown 40 total passes in those games.

Love has had some warts this year while Josh Jacobs has been hot, so it is hard to argue that that approach is not optimal.

With the weather expected to be below freezing on Thursday night, this could be another running script.

After completing 56.5% of his passes on Sunday, Love is now 32nd out of 35 qualified passers with a 61.8% completion rate. 

He sits ahead of only Trevor Lawrence (61.3%), Bryce Young (60.1%), and Anthony Richardson (47.1%).

However, his 8.0 yards per attempt is seventh while he has a 6.4% completion rate (4th).

What the Packers have found out by running the ball is they’re getting Love into more manageable third downs.

Love is 29th in rating on third down this season (72.0), completing just 48.5% of his third-down throws (33rd).

Love has just 5 first down completions on third-and-long (needing 7 or more yards) this season on 34 dropbacks, ahead of only Kyler Murray (2).

All of that said, Love still holds a high fantasy floor. 

He was QB16 (14.7 points) last week and had just two weeks in the back half of scoring in a game he has finished this season. 

He has lacked that consistent ceiling (two weeks higher than QB11), making him more of a fringe QB1 in this matchup.

Miami has not faced a daunting rogue’s gallery of passers this season, but they allow only 11.6 passing points per game (8th).

They have allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt (4th) and a 3.1% touchdown rate (6th).

If looking for Love’s production in cold weather, he is 2-2 in games below 40 degrees with all four starts last season. 

Love completed 68.2% of his passes for 7.0 Y/A with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in those outings.

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Running Back

De’Von Achane: Achane was limited to 56 yards on 13 touches on Sunday, but he managed to get into the end zone twice to elevate his game for fantasy.

Achane was never going to sustain his elite efficiency as a runner from his rookie season, and this Miami running game has not been as good as the first two seasons under Mike McDaniel.

25% of Achane’s runs have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate of any running back with 100 or more runs this season.

However, Achane still has an 11.4% explosive rate (13th on that list), an increased workload, and a receiving role to anchor his fantasy production.

In his games played with Tua this season, Achane has closed those weeks as RB3, RB2, RB2, RB2, RB24, RB6, and RB6. He has averaged 23.3 PPR points per game in those contests.

He has dropped from 7.7 yards per touch as a rookie down to 5.2 yards per touch this season, but Achane is averaging 19 touches per game in those weeks to make up ground.

As a rookie, Achane averaged 11.1 touches per game.

The largest area of impact has been as a pass catcher.

Achane is averaging 4.5 receptions for 33.9 yards per game this season after 2.5 catches for 17.9 yards per game as a rookie.

We have seen Achane separate himself recently, as Raheem Mostert has fallen below Jaylen Wright on the depth chart.

Mostert has only 8 touches over the past 3 games while Wright has 18.

Achane has 51 touches in those games.

You are starting Achane as a front-end RB1 with his increased workload and elite receiver work.

Green Bay has been hit or miss against the run.

They have allowed 4.5 yards per carry to running backs (20th) with a 59.6% success rate on those attempts (25th).

They held Christian McCaffrey to 2.8 YPC last week a week after allowing 125 yards and two touchdowns to the Chicago backfield.

Josh Jacobs: After 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on Sunday, Jacobs has peeled off four straight games of clearing 100 yards from scrimmage. 

He is a reliable asset, falling below 90 combined yards in just two games this season.

Jacobs has averaged 21 touches per game over his last seven. 

A high floor, high upside back when he gets into the end zone, Jacobs has hit paydirt 7 times over his past five games after scoring 1 time over his opening six games.

Jacobs has run for 10 or more yards on 12.4% of his attempts, which is a career-high.

Given this game's implied conditions and being attached to a home favorite, Jacobs is set up for another high workload.

Jacobs is 2nd in the NFL among backs with 100 or more attempts in yards after contact per rush (3.58 yards), which will be needed here.

Miami has played the run well since their Week 5 bye.

Over that stretch, they have allowed 3.8 YPC to running backs (10th) and only 0.74 yards before contact on those runs (4th).

During that period, they limited James Conner (20 runs for 53 yards), Kyren Williams (15 for 62 yards), and Rhamondre Stevenson (8 for 13 last week).

The scoring upside remains present.

Miami has allowed 61.9% of the touchdowns to running backs, the highest rate in the league.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill: Hill collected 5-of-6 targets for 48 yards on Sunday.

We will inevitably run into another spike week for Hill, but that lid-lifting fantasy asset that stacks a tremendous target rate differs from the player we have seen this season.

Hill has been targeted on 23.3% of his routes with Tua on the field this season compared to rates of 36.6% in 2023 and 33.9% in 2022.

Not only has he been targeted at a lower rate this season, but his quality of target has also dipped.

This season, 20% of his targets from Tua have been inaccurate compared to a 9.4% rate in 2023 and a 10.3% rate in 2022.

Since Tua returned, Hill has found a usable floor for gamers, but his profile has been more of a floor-based WR2/WR3 than a hammer-dropping WR1.

He has finished as a WR3 or better in four of the five games since Tua returned, but he had a high-scoring week as WR12 and no game over 80 yards receiving. 

Green Bay is expected to still be without Jaire Alexander this week.

They have allowed only 7.9 yards per target to WR1s (9th), but they have allowed a 7.7% touchdown rate (23rd) to lead receivers. 

Jayden Reed: Reed had only three targets on Sunday, catching all of them for 26 yards.

Reed has been a top-40 scorer in one of his past five games.

Reed has been a WR2 or better in just three games this season.

His two ceiling weeks have been week-winning, but the need for a steady target volume is the main thorn in his production.

Reed has yet to clear 6 targets in a game since Week 4.

The last time that Reed hit a 20% share of the team targets was in Week 5.

The recent run-first approach has hurt him out of the bye since he plays in 3WR sets.

Reed has been on the field for 60% and 68% of the dropbacks in those games, which has led to only 12 and 17 total routes run.

Those route numbers paired with his target share are a cocktail for a low floor. 

Reed is an efficient player per route and target, but it is difficult for any player to be productive on those opportunities.

Reed is an upside option on the WR2/WR3 line.

To compound matters, Miami has allowed the fewest points to opposing slot receivers (9.6 per game).

That has been impacted by target volume.

When teams have thrown to the slot, Miami has allowed a 72.1% catch rate (24th) and 8.1 yards per target (16th).

The positive spin for Reed is that the last time he hit a bankable target share was the previous game that Romeo Doubs missed.

Doubs is in the league’s concussion protocol, which will be tough to clear in a short week.

Jaylen Waddle: Gamers chasing a breakout game for Waddle were rewarded on Sunday.

He had season highs in targets (9), catches (8), and yards (144) with a touchdown.

Waddle had 7 catches over his previous three games. 

Where we are with Miami is that the ball is more spread out than in previous seasons, which has made this a more volatile passing game.

Waddle has only been targeted on 17.1% of his routes with Tua on the field and is fourth on the team in targets.

He is still a volatile WR3 and has yet to have the steady floor that Hill has had.

We still have to contend with Tua in the cold narratives and Miami playing on the road in a tougher matchup.

There was a signal last week that we covered for Waddle based on the matchup and New England’s lack of success slowing down outside receivers.

Green Bay could be without Alexander again this week to open the door for chasing the upside again on the outside, where Waddle plays 80% of his snaps.

The Packers have allowed a 5.6% touchdown rate to outside receivers (21st) but have allowed 7.6 yards per target (9th) and a 59.8% catch rate (10th) to those receivers.

Christian Watson: Watson did not catch any of his four targets on Sunday, which included a dropped 50-yard touchdown.

Watson's route rate dipped to 68% of the dropbacks, but with Doubs expected to be a longshot for Thursday, Watson will have added opportunities on his plate.

Watson did not play in the Week 5 game that Doubs missed, so it is hard to gauge how much of a spike in route participation he can gain versus Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath, but Watson had been surging in terms of playing time and target rate before Sunday.

He still offers upside per target to be in play as an upside WR3/FLEX.

Watson averages a team-high 18.2 air yards per target, drawing 32.4% of his targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

Miami has been vulnerable to those targets.

They have allowed a 46.2% catch rate (29th) on deep targets to wide receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks is back on the table with the potential absence of Doubs this week.

After Doubs left the game on Sunday, Wicks was on the field for 81.8% of the dropbacks.

He has been on the field for 75% of the dropbacks this season when Doubs has been off.

Wicks leads the team with 18.8% of the targets with Doubs off the field, but a large part of that sample size came in Week 5 when Watson was also unable to play.

Wicks has been targeted on a team-high 26.3% of his routes but has lost playing time in recent games to Watson.

Wicks is also in play as a WR3/FLEX and DFS play with the expected increase in playing time.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith: Smith stayed hot on Sunday, catching 9-of-11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Smith has now finished as the TE2 in overall weekly scoring in 3 of his past 6 games.

Since the Week 6 bye, Smith is tied for fourth among tight ends in targets (42), third in receptions (34), and second in receiving yards (395) at the position.

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, Smith leads Miami with 20.8% of the targets and 2.18 yards per route run.

Since Tua returned, Smith has been targeted on at least 20% of his routes in all 5 games.

He is a TE1 for fantasy right now and gets a great matchup.

Green Bay is 21st in receptions allowed per game (5.5) to tight ends, allowing 8.4 yards per target (23rd) and a 5.3% touchdown rate (22nd) to the position. 

Tucker Kraft: Kraft only had two catches for 26 yards on Sunday, but one was an 11-yard touchdown, his 6th touchdown of the season.

Kraft only has 14 catches over his past six games played, but he remains active near the end zone, which keeps him on the board as a touchdown-dependent fantasy option.

Kraft has 27.9% of the team targets in the red zone, third among tight ends.

With Romeo Doubs absent, he could get a target lift against a Miami defense that has pushed volume to tight ends.

Miami allows only 6.3 yards per target (7th) and a 3.1% touchdown rate (12th) to tight ends, but they have faced a ton of volume to the position.

29.2% of the receptions against Miami have been by tight ends, the highest rate in the league.

29.8% of the targets they have faced have been to tight ends, the highest.

Kraft can create it on his own as an added-out.

70.6% of his yards have come after the catch, which leads the position.

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