The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Vikings and Cardinals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 20.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 22.2 | 16 | Points/Gm | 24.9 | 9 |
| 21.5 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 17.9 | 5 |
| 57.5 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 62 | 16 |
| 62.9 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 18 |
| 6 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 12 |
| 5.4 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 7 |
| 47.31% | 8 | Rush% | 46.92% | 9 |
| 52.69% | 25 | Pass% | 53.08% | 24 |
| 44.65% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 33.58% | 1 |
| 55.35% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 66.42% | 32 |
- Minnesota leads the NFL in passing plays of 20 or more yards per game (4.1).
- Arizona has allowed 21.4% of the plays against them to gain 10 or more yards (31st) but only 4.5% to gain 20 or more yards (2nd).
- Arizona has converted a league-worst 11.4% (5-of-44) of their third-and-long (needing 7 or more yards) downs.
- 16.7% of the Arizona running plays have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Arizona averages 6.0 yards per play on early downs, which is 5th in the league.
- Minnesota allows 4.8 yards per play on early downs, which is 2nd in the league.
- Arizona has forced 21.4% of their opponent drives to go three-and-out, the lowest rate in the league.
- 25% (31-of-124) of the drives against Minnesota have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Ending last week as QB25 (10.3 points), Murray continued to operate as one of the more volatile fantasy quarterbacks this season.
Murray now has four weeks as a top 7 scorer and another week as QB12 in weekly scoring.
He also has six other starts as QB15 or lower, which includes four weeks as QB23 or lower.
Murray did have good passing peripherals on Sunday, connecting on 24-of-37 passes for 285 yards, but he only rushed for 9 yards and did not throw a touchdown pass.
Murray has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in all but two games.
Murray is a boom-or-bust option on the QB1/QB2 line.
His spike weeks are good enough that it's harder for him to stream outright in 1QB leagues, but this is another matchup where I prefer to use him as an upside QB2 if I have that luxury.
Arizona has an implied team total below where they have been this year, paired with being a road underdog.
There are pulling data points for Murray in each direction based on what the Vikings like to do.
Minnesota is 2nd in the league in blitz rate (36%), but they send the most zone blitzes, ranking 29th in rate of man coverage on passing plays (15.8%).
Murray has struggled against the blitz, completing 55.8% of his passes (31st) for 6.1 Y/A (28th) and a 2.6% touchdown rate (31st).
But he has been stronger against zone coverage, completing 72.5% of his passes (13th) for 8.3 Y/A (11th) compared to a 56.6% completion rate (19th) and 5.4 Y/A against man coverage (32nd).
Minnesota did struggle to contain Caleb Williams (26.9 points) on Sunday, which gives the path for some added upside appeal.
Sam Darnold: Darnold has rebounded with QB10 (23.6 points) and QB6 (21.1) scoring weeks against two good defenses after bricking a soft matchup against the Jaguars.
He has completed 67.6% of his passes (11th) for 8.3 Y/A (5th) and a 6.4% touchdown rate (5th).
Darnold has added double-digit rushing yards in six of his past eight games.
Darnold only has two weeks higher than QB9, but he has been a sturdy fantasy option this season, giving us only two weeks in the back half of weekly scoring.
He is a high-floor option on the QB1/QB2 line.
Like Murray, I prefer to use Darnold as a QB2, but I would have no issues continuing to use in 1QB leagues if forced to.
We have been talking about Arizona as a “bend but don’t break” defense for a while.
They don’t rush the passer, give up a ton of completions, but do not allow many big plays.
They have allowed only three QB1 scoring weeks despite one of the more challenging opposing schedules this season.
Arizona is 29th in pressure rate (27%) and 25th in man coverage rate (21.7%).
They allow a 68.6% completion rate (25th) and 7.3 Y/A (19th), but also 10.7 yards per completion (11th) and a 3.4% touchdown rate (9th).
Darnold has a 2.5% touchdown rate against zone coverage (14th) compared to a 9% rate against man coverage (8th).
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bears @ Lions -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Giants @ Cowboys -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Dolphins @ Packers -- FREE | Thanksgiving Day |
| Raiders @ Chiefs -- FREE | Black Friday |
| Chargers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Ravens | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bills | Sunday Night Football |
| Browns @ Broncos -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
