Broncos vs. Browns Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 13

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Broncos and Browns on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Bo Nix: Nix kept up his strong play on Sunday, ending the week as QB7 (19.4 points).

That was his seventh QB1 scoring week over his past 10 games, averaging 19.6 points per game over that period.

While Nix has been a reliable fantasy asset, I want to come in treading a little lighter than in recent weeks in this spot.

His QB1 scoring weeks have been mainly identifiable based on opponents who struggle to rush the passer.

Those games have come against the Bucs, Raiders (x2), Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, and Chiefs.

The only team in that group in the top 10 in terms of pressure this season is the Chiefs, and nearly all of those teams have targets for other quarterbacks in those matchups.

When Nix has not been pressured over his hot run, he has completed 72.4% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt and a 5.5% touchdown rate.

When pressured over that span, he has completed 42.6% of his passes (second to last) for 4.1 Y/A (tied for last) and a 2.9% touchdown rate (28th).

The Browns lead the NFL in pressure rate (43.0%).

I am coming into this matchup handling Nix as a QB2, but he still has the potential to get over.

As good as the Browns have been getting to the quarterback, they are still 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.500).

They are allowing a league-high 12.7 yards per completed pass.

The Cleveland pass rush could also signal a return to Nix using his legs, something he has not had to do lately because teams have not pressured him.

Nix has a 12.6% scramble rate when pressured, which is eighth in the league.

The Browns have allowed 24.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (24th).

Jameis Winston: Through the snow and a stingy Pittsburgh defense, Winston closed last week as QB19 (13.5 points).

He did not throw a touchdown pass (he did throw a 2-point conversion) and threw an interception (his fourth as a starter), but he managed to add a rushing touchdown.

Winston has made four starts with the Browns.

His two QB1 weeks came against the Ravens and Saints, two teams we have targeted for passing volume and passing points.

His two down weeks have come against the Chargers and Steelers, opponents who play slow and have stopped the pass from Winston-level passers this season.

This week he gets another one of those matchups to come in with QB2 expectations and hope to come out with points over those expectations.

The Browns are a road underdog with a team total under 20 points.

The Broncos are second in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4) with a 3.2% touchdown rate (8th).

They already face the sixth-most pass attempts per game (34.3) and have still allowed 11.6 passing points per game (7th).

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Running Back

Nick Chubb: Gamers who were in a spot to push Chubb into lineups last week were rewarded with 2 touchdowns, his first trips into the end zone since his first game back in Week 7.

Those touchdowns were fantasy deodorant for another inefficient rushing line, however.

Chubb rushed 20 times for 59 yards (3.0 YPC).

Among all running backs with 50 or more runs on the season, Chubb’s 3.0 yards per carry is ahead of only Zamir White (2.8 YPC).

He has a run of 10 or more yards on 4.1% of those attempts, ahead of only White (3.1%) and Ezekiel Elliott (1.7%).

Chubb remains a touchdown-dependent FLEX attached to a road underdog.

Since returning, he has only made 3 catches for 7 yards, so he needs those touchdowns or to start boosting his efficiency on the ground.

Denver can make that challenging.

The Broncos allow 3.78 YPC to backs (5th) and 10.4 rushing points per game (5th) to the position.

Chubb has already faced two teams higher than Denver in that department: the Ravens (RB44) and Chargers (RB48).

Denver RBs: This backfield has turned into weekly chaos.

Javonte Williams rushed 8 times for -2 yards on Sunday, catching 2-of-4 targets for 6 yards.

Jaleel McLaughlin had the hotter hand, turning 7 touches into 44 yards but was forced from the game with a knee injury.

Audric Estime chipped in with 3 touches for 15 yards.

Williams is the only running back in the group to log a week higher than RB24, something he has done three times.

Just three times this season has a Bronco back hit 70 rushing yards in a game, and one was Tyler Badie back in Week 3.

Denver seemingly opens each game with Williams and then adjusts the touches based on their sense of how well things are going.

The team has also started to mix in Marvin Mims out of the backfield in passing situations.

Mims has lined up in the backfield for 5, 7, and 5 snaps the past three weeks.

Outside of hoping to land a touchdown, this is an avoidable backfield in a week with no byes.

If you are hoping to land a touchdown, Williams has 6 touches inside the five-yard line while McLaughlin has 3.

The Browns are sixth in yards from scrimmage allowed per game to backs (108.2).

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton: Sutton stayed hot on Sunday, catching 8-of-10 targets for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It was the fifth straight game in which Sutton has caught at least six passes.

He now has 24.5% of the team targets (WR12) and 40.3% of the air yards (WR5).

He has 36.2% of the Denver red zone targets (WR3) and 47.8% of the target into the end zone (WR3).

Based on his usage, Sutton is a WR1, but since we are entering this matchup with added reservations for Nix, we will lower expectations a bit.

He did not play with Nix but had a 3-61-0 line (6 targets) in this matchup a year ago, which Denzel Ward did not play in.

The Browns play man coverage on 34.2% of passing plays (4th in the league).

Against man coverage, Sutton has been targeted on 27.1% of his routes compared to a rate of 22.8% against zone coverage.

Cleveland has allowed a 59.2% catch rate to receivers (7th), but when they have allowed receptions, they have allowed big plays.

The Browns have allowed a league-high 15.9 yards per catch to receivers.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy returns to Denver playing his best stretch of football this season with Jameis Winston.

Jeudy has double-digit PPR points in all four of Winston’s starts, ending those weeks as WR37 (5-79-0), WR26 (7-73-0), WR5 (6-142-1), and WR19 (6-85-0).

Jeudy has a team-high 23.5% of the targets from Winston.

Jeudy has target upside but is more of a WR3/FLEX in this spot against a tough Denver pass defense.

The Broncos are fourth in the league in points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.55).

Jakobi Meyers (10-121-0) and Tre Tucker (7-82-0) showed that they are not impenetrable, but this defense is still respected.

Jeudy has played from the slot on 35% of his snaps with Winston to help avoid coverage from Patrick Surtain.

Elijah Moore: On Thursday, Moore caught 3-of-5 targets for 21 yards in the snow.

He can get a boost if Tillman is inactive, but Moore is a floor-based FLEX option in full-PPR formats in this spot.

His 1.44 yards per route with Winston are behind Jeudy (2.13) and Tillman (1.60), averaging 10.1 yards per catch.

Playing in the slot for 60% of his snaps, Moore will avoid Surtain the most as a bonus, but Denver is also fifth in points allowed to slot receivers (10.2 per game).

Devaughn Vele: Vele secured 6-of-9 targets for 80 yards on Sunday, his third game in a row with at least four receptions.

Vele has seen 14.3%, 15.6%, and 23.1% of the team targets in those games.

Denver could be getting Josh Reynolds back this week to muddy this receiving room and target tree, but Vele should remain the primary slot receiver.

He is best used in single-game DFS, but the matchup is not bad on paper if you have to use Vele as a floor-based FLEX in deeper formats.

The Browns have allowed 9.9 yards per target (31st) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (26th) to slot receivers.

Tight End

David Njoku: Njoku only pulled in 1-of-5 targets for 9 yards on Thursday night.

He failed to secure a potential touchdown but caught a two-point conversion to help his cause as much as he could.

With Winston, Njoku has the lowest target rate per route (19.1%).

He plays a low-floor position and remains a TE1, but this is not a great matchup for him, either.

Denver has allowed 5.3 receptions per game to tight ends (19th) but only 5.7 yards per target (third) and a 3.3% touchdown rate (13th).

More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: