The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on November 24, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
16.5Implied Total20.5
19.79Points All./Gm173
61.38Opp. Plays/Gm61.99
42.4%25Opp. Rush %39.3%11
57.6%8Opp. Pass %60.7%22
  • Denver games feature a combined 36.9 points scored (31st) while Buffalo games an average of 38.1 points (29th).
  • The Bills are allowing 19.0 passing yards per possession, third in the league.
  • The Bills are the only team in the league to not allow a touchdown on a throw 15 yards or further downfield this season.
  • The average passing touchdown length allowed by the Bills is 7.9 yards, the lowest in the league.
  • Denver is allowing 1.2 red zone touchdowns per game, behind only the 49ers (0.9) and the Patriots (0.6).
  • In two starts, the Broncos have scored on 9-of-21 (42.9%) of their drives under Brandon Allen as opposed to 26-of-87 (29.9%) under Joe Flacco.
  • John Brown has 28.0% of the Buffalo receptions, the third-highest reception rate for a wide receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins (32.6%) and Michael Thomas (36.2%).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • John Brown: Brown has 25 targets the past two weeks and has now been lower than a WR3 just once this season. Even in allowing 121 yards and a touchdown to Stefon Diggs last week, Denver still ranks ninth against opposing WR1 options (12.4 points per game), but Brown has a WR29 game (5-69 on 11 targets) against New England this season, which is the worst matchup a lead wideout can have.
  • Courtland Sutton: Sutton has 5-56-1 and 5-113 in his two games with Allen under center, giving him double-digit fantasy points in eight consectuive games. His aDOT has spiked with Allen, going from 11.8 yards up to 14.0. The Bills are third in the league in points allowed to WR1 options (10.2) and have allowed just one touchdown to a lead wideout on the season, but Sutton’s target volume paired with the high-leverage targets he gets are enough to fight through poor outlooks. 
  • Phillip Lindsay: Lindsay has out-touched Royce Freeman in three straight games, totaling a 46-28 edge in touches over those games. The Bills are 18th in yards from scrimmage allowed per game (133.4) while running backs have scored 58.8% of the touchdowns against the Bills, the third-highest rate.
  • Devin Singletary: Singletary hasn’t had the fantasy spike that would coincide taking over the Buffalo backfield the past two weeks with RB30 (8.0 points) and RB36 (8.9) weeks. What has limited his floor and upside is catching just four passes for 12 yards over those games after he snagged seven passes for 75 yards in the two games prior. Denver ranks 18th in rushing points allowed per game (12.9) and 13th in receiving points per game (10.5) to backfields. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Josh Allen: Allen has scored at least 17 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games. The rub here is that he’s faced just one team all season that ranks in the top-15 in terms of passing points allowed and the Broncos are fourth (11.9). That team was New England and Allen was the QB23 and has his fewest points in a game this season that week (8.7). Allen has a rushing touchdown in six different games this season and his legs are a trump card for poor matchups, but Allen is a QB2 option this week against a Broncos team that has allowed multiple touchdown passes just twice this season. 
  • Brandon Allen: Allen has been the QB15 (17.0) and QB18 (13.4) in his first two career starts. He’s shown a penchant for the big play, averaging a league-high 14.9 yards per completion, but that’s where the Bills are strong in the passing game, ranking third in yards allowed per completion (9.9). 
  • Noah Fant: Fant has over 20.0% of the team targets in all three games after trading Emmanuel Sanders, but still has just one TE1 scoring week over that span. The Bills rank ninth in yards per target allowed to tight ends (7.1) and fourth in fantasy points allowed per target (1.54) to tight ends while allowing just one touchdown to the position. Of the TE1 options they’ve faced, they’ve limited Evan Engram (6-48) and Zach Ertz (2-20).

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Dawson Knox: Knox’s playing time is way up. He’s played  75.8% and 70.8% of the snaps over the past two weeks. Unfortunately, that hasn’t led to a major fantasy spike. He’s cleared more than two receptions in just one of his past six games and even with a touchdown last week, Knox was just the TE12 (11.2 points). Opposing teams target their tight ends 25.1% of the time versus the Broncos, which is the third highest rate in the league and they just allowed to tight ends to score a week ago.

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

IND at HOU | MIA at CLE | CAR at NO | NYG at CHI | OAK at NYJ | PIT at CIN | DET at WAS | SEA at PHI | TB at ATL | DEN at BUF | JAX at TEN | DAL at NE | GB at SF | BAL at LAR