The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Thursday Night Football game on November 21, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.
21Implied Total24.5
20.615Points All./Gm23.219
59.55Opp. Plays/Gm62.213
37.5%9Opp. Rush %35.2%4
62.5%24Opp. Pass %64.8%29
  • These teams have combined for 53, 28, 49, and 71 points over their four meetings with Deshaun Watson as the starter.
  • 92.3% (24-of-26) of the Colts offensive touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone, behind only Miami (93.3%). League average is 73.3%.
  • The Colts’ average passing touchdown length is 9.1 yards, the lowest in the league. League average is 18.4 yards.
  • Jacoby Brissett has thrown a touchdown pass for every 119.8 passing yards, trailing only Russell Wilson (119.0) and Lamar Jackson (118.8).
  • 84.6% (22-of-26) of the touchdowns allowed by the Texans have come via passing, the second-highest rate in the league.
  • The Texans are allowing 28.6 passing yards per possession, 31st in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Jacoby Brissett: All of Brissett’s fantasy production continues to run through his high touchdown rate (5.8%), but this is a good spot to have him as a streaming option or spot starter. Houston is 29th in passing points allowed per game. They have allowed a top-12 scorer in five of their past six games, including a QB4 week to Brissett (27.6 points) when these teams last played.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • T.Y. Hilton: After sitting out the past three weeks with a calf injury, Hilton is expected to return this Thursday if all goes well in practice to start the week. If that happens without a hitch, the spot couldn’t be more favorable for his return. Houston has struggled to defend the pass all season while Hilton has given the Texans nightmares. Hilton has averaged 7.0 catches for 111.0 yards over his past seven games versus the Texans with four touchdowns, including a 6-74-1 game against them earlier this season on 11 targets. 
  • Deshaun Watson: Watson has been a top-10 scorer in just one of his past four games. These teams have played in their share of high-scoring games, but the Colts have done a decent job of limiting huge games from Watson. In four games, Watson has posted 15.5, 19.0, 18.2, and 31.1 fantasy points with just one game with multiple touchdown passes. 
  • DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has enjoyed the absence of Will Fuller, receiving 37% of the team targets over the past four games with a 0.89 weighted opportunity. With Fuller on the field, Hopkins had his target share (28%) and his weighted opportunity (0.63) drop. Fuller was close to returning to the field last week, so we’re entering this week with the expectations that he will be back Thursday. The Colts have allowed some big weeks to opposing lead wideouts, allowing top-10 weeks to D.J. Chark (8-104-2), Keenan Allen (8-123-1), Julio Jones (8-128-1), and Hopkins himself (9-106-1) on the season.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Carlos Hyde: Hyde has 19 or more touches in four of his past six games. He’s broken off some huge runs the past two games and salvaged a game last week in which he was scripted out of the game plan with a 41-yard rushing score on one of his nine carries for 65 yards. Hyde hasn’t caught a pass Week 6, so he’s all-rushing fantasy commodity. That’s a tougher ask against a Colts team that is fourth in the league in rushing points allowed per game (8.7) and held Hyde to 35 yards on 12 carries when these teams last played.
  • Darren Fells: You can play Fells if you want to chase a touchdown, but not for much else. Fells has five end zone targets -all for scores – this season, but also has two or fewer catches in seven of his games played.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Will Fuller: Fuller did not get in a full practice this week, but is set to return to the lineup this week after missing all but three snaps over the past three games. Fuller was the WR48 or lower in four of his six full games played, but also led the team in air yards (444) and depth of target (14.6 yards) with a 24% target share in those games. The Colts are 25th in yards per target allowed to opposing wideouts (8.73) but are 12th in touchdowns allowed (seven) to the position. He is a volatile WR3 option. 
  • Zach Pascal: Pascal will move back into a secondary role with Hilton returning to the lineup. After back-to-back down weeks as the lead wideout, that could be a positive for Pascal. Houston has been a team we’ve targeted with wide receiver play all year, ranking 21st in yardage allowed per game to wideouts (174.1) and 27th in touchdowns allowed (14). Pascal caught 6-of-7 targets for 106 yards two scores when these teams met in Week 7.
  • Colts RBs: Marlon Mack is sidelined this week with a hand injury, leaving the Colts to go with a combination of Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams on early downs with Nyheim Hines handling the ancillary carries and the receiving work. That receiving work may be the most appealing element of this matchup. Opposing backs have accounted for 29.9% of the receptions against the Texans, the highest rate in the league. Houston has also been strong against backs on the ground. They rank fifth on the season in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (9.8). Colts backs carried 21 times for 56 yards in the Week 7 meeting between these teams. 
  • Colts TEs: The ongoing battle of wishing Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle were one tight end keeps waging on. Ebron had 4-70-1 on five targets while Doyle had 3-21-0 on five targets when these teams last met. Doyle wasn’t even targeted last week and has had 22 or fewer yards in seven games this season. He’s strictly an option hoping for a touchdown. Ebron has a bit more upside at 12.3 yards per catch, but also has had his share of down moments with fewer than 30 yards receiving in four of his past six games. 
  • Duke Johnson: Johnson has been a top-30 scorer in each of his past four of his past five games, but he has found the end zone in three of those games. Johnson has managed more than two receptions in just three of his 10 games. Just one of those games came with Fuller playing, but the Colts are 22nd in receiving points per game to backfields to keep the FLEX lights on. 

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

IND at HOU | MIA at CLE | CAR at NO | NYG at CHI | OAK at NYJ | PIT at CIN | DET at WAS | SEA at PHI | TB at ATL | DEN at BUF | JAX at TEN | DAL at NE | GB at SF | BAL at LAR