Dolphins vs Browns Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

• This the second-largest point spread with the Browns as a favorite since they returned to the league in 1999 behind being an 11.5 favorite against the 49ers in Week 17, 2007.
• This is the 12th consecutive game Miami is an underdog, matching their longest streak as a franchise. 
• Opposing teams have scored on 48.6% of their possessions against the Dolphins, the highest rate in the league.
• Miami has scored just one touchdown from outside of the red zone this season, the fewest in the league.
• Miami is averaging 1.5 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponent, the worst in the league.
• The Dolphins have a minus-29 sack differential against their opponents, the worst in the league.
• Since the Browns bye in Week 8, Baker Mayfield is 10-of-18 (55.6%) passing in the red zone with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Through seven weeks, he had completed 33.3% (10-of-30) of his red zone passes for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a solid fantasy option over the past three weeks in tougher matchups versus the Broncos (17.1 points), Bills (17.6), and Steelers (21.8). This week he gets a light matchup at home against a Miami defense that is 27th in passing points allowed per game (18.2) and 32nd in touchdown rate (7.3%).
• Odell Beckham: Beckham hasn’t scored since Week 2, nor hit 100 yards since Week 6, but has seen 12 and 10 targets come his way the past two weeks. Beckham has faced one of the hardest WR1 schedules so far this season, but gets his best matchup of the season here. Miami is 28th in points allowed per game (18.2) to opposing WR1 options and have allowed lead wideouts to catch 10 touchdowns this season, tied for the most in the league.
• Nick Chubb: Chubb has been turned into a rushing-first fantasy option with the return of Kareem Hunt. Chubb has just two catches for five yards with Hunt in the lineup. This is a good spot to be rushing dependent as a double-digit home favorite against a Miami defense allowing a league-high 128.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Jarvis Landry: Landry has been a WR3 or better in six of his past seven games. He’s found the end zone in three straight games and now is edging Beckham for the team lead in receptions (49), yards (695), and touchdowns (three) on the season. Landry has registered a 26.5% team target share with David Njoku sidelined as opposed to a 19.2% share with him active to start the season. If Njoku returns Sunday, that could shave some targets from Landry, but he is still a fringe WR2 option.
• DeVante Parker: Parker has been a WR3 or better in each of his past seven games. Over that span, he’s been the WR17 in overall scoring. In the two games since Preston Williams was lost for the season, Parker has had 10 targets in each game (25.9% of the team total). 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Kalen Ballage: Ballage has 62 yards on 38 touches the past two weeks, which is almost so ineffective it’s impressive. He does have 7-of-9 team carries inside of the 5-yard line, but he’s not even a good play with a touchdown. The Dolphins got Patrick Laird on the field a little bit more last week (16 snaps) and he turned seven touches into 58 yards, which could open the door for more of a split between this low-level backfield since Ballage has been so anemic. 
• Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick has proven capable of getting yardage since returning as the starter, but it hasn’t led to fantasy points through the air outside of a strong game versus the Jets. In his five games in his second stint as a starter, Fitzpatrick has thrown for 282 yards or more three times, but still has been the QB19 or lower in three games. Cleveland has allowed just 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their four games since their bye. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Kareem Hunt:  Hunt has 17 targets (25% of the team total) over his two games back in the fold, catching 13 passes for 90 yards. That target share isn’t likely to be sustainable since Christian McCaffrey leads all backs in team target share this season at 19.5%. Hunt only has 10 carries in the rushing department with no touches inside of the 10-yard line, which limits him to being a FLEX option, but Miami is 31st in yards from scrimmage allowed to backs (167.5 yards).
• Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has just 28 and 18 yards the past two weeks, but his usage increase has remained steady as he’s had six targets in each of his past three games. He doesn’t have a touchdown yet on the season, but is a dart based on those six targets per game against a Cleveland team that is 27th in yards per target allowed to tight ends (8.4 yards).