|Green Bay||Rank||@||San Francisco||Rank|
|41.7%||22||Opp. Rush %||41.3%||21|
|58.3%||11||Opp. Pass %||58.7%||12|
- Green Bay is fourth in expected points added via their passing offense (10.5 per game).
- The 49ers are second in expected points added via their passing defense (11.0 per game).
- Green Bay is fifth in the league in scoring rate (74.1%) and first in touchdown rate (51.9%) on drives that cross midfield this season.
- Green Bay is second in the league in touchdown conversion rate in the red zone (68.6%) offensively.
- The 49ers are first in the league in touchdown conversion rate in the red zone (40.9%) defensively.
- The 49ers have rushed for 222 yards total over the past three weeks after averaging 181.4 rushing yards per game over their first seven games.
- The Packers are allowing 114.0 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, 29th in the league.
- Opponents have scored on 36.1% (13-of-36) of their drives (16th) against the 49ers the past three weeks after 16.0% prior (31st).
- The Packers have allowed opponents to score on 47.8% of their drives and a touchdown on 28.4% (28th) since Week 4, tied with the Bengals for the highest rate in the league over that span.
- 55.8% of the San Francisco receiving yardage has come after the catch, the second-highest rate in the league behind Pittsburgh (59.2%).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Davante Adams: Adams has 31.4% and 34.5% of the team targets since returning to the lineup and now has 15 (10-180), 11 (7-41), and 10 (7-118) targets over his past three games played. The 49ers are second in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (9.2) with two touchdowns allowed to those players. Adams has run a team-high 42% of his routes at RWR this season, where Richard Sherman lines across for 98% of his snaps. Sherman has allowed the lowest rating in coverage (43.2) this season. But the Packers have typically altered their game plan to run their WR1 away from Sherman dating back to when he played in Seattle and with the 49ers a year ago. Last season, Adams caught 10-of 14 targets for 132 yards with two touchdowns against the 49ers, with just one target coming in the coverage of Sherman. This 49ers pass defense is much better surrounding Sherman, but his overall target share should remain high.
- Aaron Jones: The past two games, Jones has played 59.3% and 50% of the team snaps while he’s totaled just 22 touches compared to 21 touches for Jamaal Williams. Jones has been the RB45, RB33, and RB52 in games in which he failed to find the end zone, but finding the end zone is what he’s excelled at this season with 14 touchdowns. The 49ers have allowed top-20 weeks to Kenyan Drake (22 touches for 80 yards), Chris Carson (28 touches for 101 yards and a touchdown), Drake (19 touches for 162 yards and a touchdown), and Christian McCaffrey (18 touches for 115 yards and a touchdown) over their past four games after not allowing a top-30 scorer over their first six games.
- Tevin Coleman: Coleman has been a letdown since his blowup game in Week 8 when he rushed 11 times for 105 yards with four touchdowns (37.8 points). In his three games since, Coleman has rushed 33 times for 77 yards and totaled 26.0 fantasy points. With Matt Breida sidelined last week, Coleman played 49.4% of the snaps, right in line with season-long usage. The 49ers have struggled on the ground as a whole, but the Packers have been a team we’ve targeted on the ground all season for yardage and they also have allowed 12 touchdowns to backfields (27th).
- George Kittle: Kittle is trending towards playing on Sunday Night after missing the past two games with a knee injury. Just in case, you may want to roster Ross Dwelley, but if Kittle is active, then you’re playing him even if he carries some risk of not being 100% since he carries so much upside at a position that is a wasteland for fantasy purposes. The Packers are allowing 5.7 receptions (26th) for 62.7 yards (29th) per game to opposing tight ends.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Aaron Rodgers: For fantasy purposes, Rodgers has been someone we’ve been cognizant of when it comes to matchups. Rodgers has faced five teams in the top half of the league in expected points added via their pass defense entering the game and in those games, he’s been the QB19 or lower in all five, averaging 223.6 passing yards per game, 7.2 Y/A with four touchdown passes. The 49ers are second in EPA added via their pass defense and are first in pressure rate. Even showing some vulnerability the past three weeks for fantasy, the quarterbacks the 49ers have faced have scored 32.2% of their fantasy points in those games via rushing production.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has been a top-six scorer in three games, twice against the Cardinals and once against the Bengals. Outside of those three games, he’s been the QB15 or lower in each of his other seven games. The Packers started off the season as a pass defense to avoid, but have been more giving outside after that hot open to the year. After allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 7.4 fantasy points per game through three weeks, the Packers have allowed 8.7 Y/A and 17.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over their past seven games, but have allowed more than two touchdown passes just once on the season.
- Deebo Samuel/Emmanuel Sanders: Samuel has 18.9%, 23.9%, and 22.2% of the team targets over the past three weeks. He’s gone over 100 yards in each of the past two games with Sanders playing just 29% and 47% of the team snaps in those games. Samuel is now second in the league in yards after the catch per reception at 7.2 yards. Samuel moves around running 44% of his routes at LWR, 26% in the slot and 27% at RWR. Sanders didn’t practice at all last week and then was in on fewer than half of the snaps. We’ll need to monitor his practices during the week, but playing last week should signal that he’ll have increased usage coming this week, which should take away some from Samuel’s increased target share the past two games. Just 41.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Packers are scored by opposing wide receivers, the fourth-lowest rate.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: